Wednesday, August 18, 2004 |
Gagné, K-Rod, And The Joy Of Strikeouts
Angels 6, Devil Rays 4
On a day in which the Angels wouldn't commit to Escobar's next start, and admitted Quinlan's oblique tear is season-ending, today's game qualified as one of Bart's best games. I left my computer (I was listening on Gameday Audio) to run to the bathroom; I stopped to talk to a co-worker; and by the time I got back, Frankie had come frighteningly close to tying the game. But he never did, and thank God.Marlins 6, Dodgers 4
What an embarrassing game. Jon disagrees, but it occurs to me that Gagné hasn't been qualitatively as good as he was last year. Consider:
| Stat | Difference, 2003-2004 | 2003 STDDEV | 2004 STDDEV |
|---|---|---|---|
| WHIP | +0.98 | .08 | .37 |
| SLG | +.094 | .057 | .062 |
| K/9 | +0.02 | 2.45 | 3.57 |
| K/BB | -0.23 | 1.84 | 10.63 |
(Note: standard deviations were calculated based on month-by-month totals; total differences are based on annual values.) Which means -- his WHIP and SLG have both increased over last year, by appreciable amounts, and his K/9 has decreased. The only substantial improvement Gagne has made was the notable increase in his K/BB ratio. All his peripherals here have been accompanied by increases, substantial in the cases of WHIP, K/9, and K/BB, of his standard deviations on these skills. He's still a great pitcher, but on any given outing, he's less likely to be consistent. The enormous jump in his K/BB standard deviation (10.63, almost ten times its value from the previous year) tells you he's been much more wobbly on the mound, and more often, than you might care to see.
Putting Paulie in to face Gagné was a masterstroke from McKeon. Of everyone who has a chance to hit him, LoDuca was the most likely to at least not make an out, given he had caught him before, and Gagné didn't have his A stuff, not by a long shot.
About everything else: The offense wasn't overwhelming, but adequate, and OP pitched a gem. Too bad he didn't get a win.
Gagné's blown save is a bad omen when the next team we see is Atlanta, who themselves just blew out Trevor Hoffman and beat the Pads, 6-5.
We, the rabid American fans, have a habit of establishing any player's most extraordinary achievements as his standard by which to judge all other performances, regardless of the established norm or even common sense.
While Gagne had an extraordinary ( there's that word again) run of perfection, it was in fact just that: extraordinary. Like any run in any sport it required an inordinate amount of good fortune, timing, skill, etc.. Just as Sharman, Woods, Dimaggio, Jordan and Ripken did.
I suspect that over time, whether it be two, five or ten years, Gagne will level off to be an outstanding reliever, certainly in the upper echelon of the game, but never perfect, any more than Ryan, Koufax or Eckersley were.
I still maintain that the Dodgers are not offensively productive against most starting pitching. This time, along with Gagne's lapse, they ran into a bull pen they don't like. Get used to it. The playoffs are like that.
Rick
: 8/19/2004 06:08:00 AMNewer› ‹Older
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