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Wednesday, August 04, 2004 |
Sometimes, The Cheap Stats Win
OPS isn't the best measure of a hitter's value, but it's easy to calculate and thus has gained widespread acceptance. Paul McCord at MVN's Tomahawk cooks up DIPP as an easier way to calculate a pitcher's value, calculated simply as
DIPP = K / (BB + HB + K + HR)
It's interesting because it only uses those things directly controlled by a pitcher to measure his performance. Perfect? Hardly. For one thing, it ignores pitchers with value who don't throw a lot of strikeouts (e.g., Tommy John) but induce groundouts. But sometimes it takes a simpleminded stat like this one to get the ball rolling in a different direction. Just as a teaser, here's the ten pitchers with the highest DIPP numbers for 2003 who pitched over 100 innings:
| Pitcher | DIPP |
|---|---|
| Schilling | .829 |
| Martinez | .779 |
| Lieber | .757 |
| Johnson | .752 |
| Prior | .714 |
| Oswalt | .712 |
| Perez | .711 |
| Santana | .706 |
| Pettitte | .698 |
| Mussina | .695 |
Interesting stuff, and kudos to Paul for designing this.
Update: Per Paul's request, a list of relievers from 2003 (actually, pitchers who threw between 50 and 100 innings, as I don't have data cross-referenced by appearances in relief).
| Pitcher | Team | DIPP |
|---|---|---|
| Rhodes | SEA | .827 |
| Gagne | LA | .826 |
| Isringhausen | STL | .782 |
| Nen | SF | .779 |
| Hoffman | SD | .767 |
| Hawkins | MIN | .759 |
| Dotel | HOU | .756 |
| Rincon | OAK | .754 |
| Smoltz | ATL | .752 |
| Wagner | HOU | .739 |
Comments:
Thanks for posting this! I agree (and I think I acknowledged in my article) that DIPP isn't perfect. The example I would use is Greg Maddux, who depends on his ability to induce ground balls to get so many of his outs. (Maddux, then, is definitely not a strong pitcher independent of his defense. But a strong pitcher he is, nonetheless.)
I didn't expect anyone to like it so quickly or to calculate 2003 leaders so fast (I don't have them all in a spreadheet yet, but I'm working on it!). So... thanks for noticing!
I didn't expect anyone to like it so quickly or to calculate 2003 leaders so fast (I don't have them all in a spreadheet yet, but I'm working on it!). So... thanks for noticing!
# posted by 
: 8/04/2004 10:58:00 AM
: 8/04/2004 10:58:00 AM
Also, may I recommend another teaser list of DIPP leaders? List the top 10 among pitchers with 50+ innings in relief, if you have them.
Paul (Tomahawk)
Paul (Tomahawk)
# posted by : 8/04/2004 11:00:00 AM
: 8/04/2004 11:00:00 AM
That somewhat along the same line as the Pitcher Out Percent (PO%) that I sometimes use.
PO% = (K-BB-HR-HBP)/TBF.
TBF = total batters faced.
The significance of PO% is that it is the net defense independent outs created by the pitcher, expressed as a fraction of total batters faced.
Pedro Martinez at his peak was about 30%. Most great power pitchers are about 20%, and good non-power pitchers run 5% to 10%.
When it turns negative, look out!
PO% = (K-BB-HR-HBP)/TBF.
TBF = total batters faced.
The significance of PO% is that it is the net defense independent outs created by the pitcher, expressed as a fraction of total batters faced.
Pedro Martinez at his peak was about 30%. Most great power pitchers are about 20%, and good non-power pitchers run 5% to 10%.
When it turns negative, look out!
I like your PO% (I think I'll call it POP on my spreadsheet just because I like saying "pop"), Stephen. It has been added to my collection of pitchers' statistics. :-)
# posted by : 8/04/2004 05:17:00 PM
: 8/04/2004 05:17:00 PMNewer› ‹Older
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