Proceeds from the ads below will be donated to the
Bob Wuesthoff scholarship fund.
Saturday, September 04, 2004 |
Postseason Pitching Preview, Part 2: The AL
Wayyy back on August 10, I wrote an
article about the NL contenders' rotations, promising to get back
to the AL. Apparently, I made that promise with the expectation that it
would get done Real
Soon Now, because I still haven't finished it (or started, until
today). But with the Hardball Times launching upon their
own summary of NL contender pitching, it behooves me to complete my
article before the first playoff game is completed. Following Aaron's
article, I wanted to get to a couple of points:
As before, a couple notes before I start:
The 2004 Yanks have had one consistent problem, and for them it's uncharacteristic: getting quality starts out of their rotation. Unloading Jose Contreras for Esteban Loiaza didn't help (in fact, Contreras has gone on to post a 4-2 record with the Chisox with a 3.92 ERA). Count them lucky on their failure to re-sign Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens: both have had trouble with inconsistency and injuries on their new team, the Astros. Count them unlucky for failing to exploit Jeff Weaver's potential, and trading away Yhency Brazoban, whose stock is rising rapidly as a replacement for Guillermo Mota.
Kevin Brown, aka "Cap'n Happy", is having a tougher-than-average year in New York. Aside from the non-pitching hand he just broke (and by the way, ESPN now lists him as "out indefinitely"), the former Georgia Tech star has watched his peripherals take a serious dip over recent effective years, with a two-point decline in his K/9 and almost a one-point decline in K/BB from his 2003 year with the Dodgers. He's also allowed a startlingly large number of flyballs (his career G/F is 2.66), an important fact for a guy who makes his living as a sinkerball pitcher. Cortisone shots to control his back pain and additional injuries during last night's game with the Orioles haven't helped (and the latter prompted his TKO). He's far from a bad pitcher -- at times, he's been the Yankees' stopper -- but he's clearly beyond his prime.
Orlando Hernandez has been much better -- as measured by his ERA -- than ever before in his career. That's because his 9.57 K/9 is the highest it's ever been, though he's walking a few more than usual. His lack of consistent success in the past, his age (38), and return from offseason shoulder surgery in 2003 make him a tough case to call, but regression seems likely in the absence of other explanations. With Joe Torre saying things like "Duque is back to where we remember him, where he was really our No. 1 starter back there in '99," you have to think he's a lock for the postseason, but a question mark once he gets there.
Will Jon Lieber ever again find the kind of superior strikeout rates he had in Pittsburgh and in his early years with the Cubs? The Yanks must hope so, but it's hard to be so down on a guy just coming back from arm surgery. He rarely walks guys, though, and he's still keeping the ball on the ground. He's never been among the elite of baseball's ptchers, but the Yanks are stretched very thin these days and have no choice but to start him, especially if Brown's injury indeed turns out to be season-ending.
Whatsamatta with Mike "Moose" Mussina? His strikeout and walk rates are well within his normal limits, but his WHIP took a sudden turn up -- 1.43, well over his 1.17 career average. Keep an eye on this -- at age 35, Mussina might be collapsing. That would be a big deal for a club that owes him $28M through 2006.
I castigated Angels GM Bill Stoneman on more than one occaision for his failure to acquire former Montreal ace Javier Vazquez. With impressive K/9 rates throughout his career (he's never been below 6.58, and his career average is 7.79), Vazquez should have been a DIPSomaniac's dream. Unfortunately, the Yankees got to him first -- somehow convincing the Expos that Nick "DL" Johnson equals a real first baseman. Moving to the AL has hurt Vazquez quite a bit; he's taken hits to both his K/9 and K/BB rates, a byproduct of the DH. The good news for Vazquez is his WHIP hasn't increased appreciably from his career norms. There's every reason to believe he'll get over this speedbump and come back strong.
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
Team Defensive Efficiency Rating: .684, 11th in the AL
- Focus on those pitchers actually likely to pitch in the postseason rather than those simply attending the roster. That is, does any credible observer believe Tanyon Sturtze will see so much as an inning in the postseason as a Yankee?
- Give some thought to the bullpens also.
For one thing, aside from the big Canadian in their bullpen, they've had success because of depth and not dominance or front-line talent. For another, any team that is likely relying on Jose Lima to make key starts for them in October has to be downgraded a bit, even acknowledging how well Lima Time has pitched. This is a team that really needs Brad Penny to get healthy over the next few weeks.True, true, and though Lima has pitched extraordinarily well this year -- and even last night -- he's highly unreliable, as is the Dodgers' offense.
As before, a couple notes before I start:
- Owing to the length of time it took to compile the statistics for this article, the numbers may not all be in sync across all players (i.e., Russ Ortiz's VORP won't be from the same day as Ishii's).
- I assume the teams will finish in the order they're in now; I'm not worried about the Padres bid for a Wildcard slot.
AL East: New York Yankees
Team Defensive Efficiency Rating: .688, 8th in the AL| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | K/9 | K/BB | G/F | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Brown | 10-4 | 3.99 | 5.70 | 2.42 | 1.35 |
26.4 |
| Orlando Hernandez |
6-0 | 2.62 | 9.57 | 2.48 | 0.77 | 19.6 |
| Jon Lieber | 10-8 | 4.46 | 4.65 | 4.35 | 1.45 |
17.5 |
| Mike Mussina | 9-8 | 5.43 | 6.60 | 3.00 | 1.32 |
4.0 |
| Javier Vazquez | 13-8 | 4.62 | 6.65 | 2.75 | 0.80 |
23.4 |
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | K/9 | K/BB | G/F | VORP |
| Tom Gordon | 6-4 | 2.42 | 9.70 | 3.76 | 1.16 |
31.8 |
| Paul Quantrill | 6-2 | 3.69 | 3.38 | 2.13 | 1.29 |
18.5 |
| Mariano Rivera | 3-1 | 1.32 | 7.51 | 3.35 | 2.21 |
36.8 |
The 2004 Yanks have had one consistent problem, and for them it's uncharacteristic: getting quality starts out of their rotation. Unloading Jose Contreras for Esteban Loiaza didn't help (in fact, Contreras has gone on to post a 4-2 record with the Chisox with a 3.92 ERA). Count them lucky on their failure to re-sign Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens: both have had trouble with inconsistency and injuries on their new team, the Astros. Count them unlucky for failing to exploit Jeff Weaver's potential, and trading away Yhency Brazoban, whose stock is rising rapidly as a replacement for Guillermo Mota.
Kevin Brown, aka "Cap'n Happy", is having a tougher-than-average year in New York. Aside from the non-pitching hand he just broke (and by the way, ESPN now lists him as "out indefinitely"), the former Georgia Tech star has watched his peripherals take a serious dip over recent effective years, with a two-point decline in his K/9 and almost a one-point decline in K/BB from his 2003 year with the Dodgers. He's also allowed a startlingly large number of flyballs (his career G/F is 2.66), an important fact for a guy who makes his living as a sinkerball pitcher. Cortisone shots to control his back pain and additional injuries during last night's game with the Orioles haven't helped (and the latter prompted his TKO). He's far from a bad pitcher -- at times, he's been the Yankees' stopper -- but he's clearly beyond his prime.
Orlando Hernandez has been much better -- as measured by his ERA -- than ever before in his career. That's because his 9.57 K/9 is the highest it's ever been, though he's walking a few more than usual. His lack of consistent success in the past, his age (38), and return from offseason shoulder surgery in 2003 make him a tough case to call, but regression seems likely in the absence of other explanations. With Joe Torre saying things like "Duque is back to where we remember him, where he was really our No. 1 starter back there in '99," you have to think he's a lock for the postseason, but a question mark once he gets there.
Will Jon Lieber ever again find the kind of superior strikeout rates he had in Pittsburgh and in his early years with the Cubs? The Yanks must hope so, but it's hard to be so down on a guy just coming back from arm surgery. He rarely walks guys, though, and he's still keeping the ball on the ground. He's never been among the elite of baseball's ptchers, but the Yanks are stretched very thin these days and have no choice but to start him, especially if Brown's injury indeed turns out to be season-ending.
Whatsamatta with Mike "Moose" Mussina? His strikeout and walk rates are well within his normal limits, but his WHIP took a sudden turn up -- 1.43, well over his 1.17 career average. Keep an eye on this -- at age 35, Mussina might be collapsing. That would be a big deal for a club that owes him $28M through 2006.
I castigated Angels GM Bill Stoneman on more than one occaision for his failure to acquire former Montreal ace Javier Vazquez. With impressive K/9 rates throughout his career (he's never been below 6.58, and his career average is 7.79), Vazquez should have been a DIPSomaniac's dream. Unfortunately, the Yankees got to him first -- somehow convincing the Expos that Nick "DL" Johnson equals a real first baseman. Moving to the AL has hurt Vazquez quite a bit; he's taken hits to both his K/9 and K/BB rates, a byproduct of the DH. The good news for Vazquez is his WHIP hasn't increased appreciably from his career norms. There's every reason to believe he'll get over this speedbump and come back strong.
The bullpen has really only three
players: Paul Quantrill, Tom Gordon, and Mariano Rivera. That's a problem
for the Yanks, whose rotation has been giving them trouble getting into
late innings with a lead lately. Tanyon Sturtze has pitched about
the same number of innings (61.0) as Rivera (68.1) but to far worse
effect (5-2 record, but with a 5.90 ERA). Quantrill's peripherals all
collapsed this year, with a .294 average against, a 3.38 K/9, and a
1.29 G/F all well under his more recent good years. Rivera's K/9 rate
has also taken a bit of a hit this year, but it's still close to his
career norms. Gordon's peripherals are also well in line with his
career norms. The thing to watch for here is that all three are on pace
for a near-career-records in innings pitched in relief; the Yanks will
have a poorly rested pen for their stretch run and the
postseason. (As I write this, Mariano Rivera gave up
four runs in the ninth to the O's, on two singles and two home
runs. Tired, indeed.)
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
Team Defensive Efficiency Rating: .684, 11th in the AL| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | K/9 | K/BB | G/F | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lohse | 7-10 |
5.48 |
4.92 |
1.49 |
1.15 |
4.6 |
| Terry Mulholland | 4-7 | 4.90 |
4.32 |
1.88 |
1.83 |
8.0 |
| Johan Santana |
16-6 | 2.95 | 10.34 | 4.67 |
0.90 |
63.3 |
| Carlos Silva | 10-8 | 4.56 | 3.42 |
2.25 | 1.54 |
24.8 |
| Brad Radke | 10-7 | 3.59 | 6.14 | 6.84 | 1.07 |
43.6 |
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | K/9 | K/BB | G/F | VORP |
| Joe Nathan |
1-2 |
1.21 |
11.01 |
3.22 |
0.67 |
28.8 |
| Joe Roa |
2-2 |
3.62 |
5.98 |
2.15 |
1.38 |
16.2 |
| JC Romero | 6-1 |
2.69 |
8.48 |
2.04 |
2.13 |
23.9 |
| Juan Rincon |
11-6 |
2.77 |
10.93 |
2.77 |
1.17 |
23.3 |
For starters, you'd expect a team that's
bashing its division by such a huge lead (9.5
games as of this writing) to have a better defensive efficiency
rating. Their midseason scare when they went 1-2 to the Indians August
13-15, eroding the team's AL Central lead to only two games, shows
their vulnerability; but then, neither is
anyone in the AL particularly strong this year, a good omen if you're a
fan of the St. Louis Cardinals trying to get used to "all
this bounty". Some teams impress you because they're historically
good, but the Twins always -- to me, at least -- seem to have the tag
"winners of the weakest division in baseball" attached to their
division championships. Look under the hood here, and you won't find a
Roger Clemens, a Randy Johnson, or a Jim Edmonds. Sure, Santana's in
line for a Cy Young, but once again, thanks to the tarnish of the AL
Central tag and the curse of the unbalanced schedule, I just can't put
Santana in the same class as the other top pitchers in the game.
There's
something to that: according to ESPN's schedule-adjusted Relative Power Index,
the Twins are only 13th in the majors. Among pitchers with 300 or
more plate appearances, Santana's only 88th based on batters faced
cumulative OPS. Put him in the AL East or West for any period of time,
and mentions of Santana and "Cy Young" in the same sentence would
evaporate. That is, this a group of solid players who are otherwise
unremarkable but with some luck might make it to the Series.
Kyle Lohse -- take away the "h"
from his last name and that's what he's mostly done this year -- is in
the list mainly for completeness. If you're Ron Gardenhire, which of
Lohse or Mulholland do you leave out of the postseason rotation? A
barely acceptable K/9 and the propensity to give up longballs has
almost certainly earned him a "pass" from the Twins, unless Mulholland
falls apart.The ancient (41) Terry Mulholland continues to
amaze, not so much by his performance but by his very existance as a
paid pitcher in the major leagues. He's got weak peripherals, but he's
been able to keep the ball on the ground and in the park. Don't let Batgirl fool you: that he's a
conceivable fourth starter for the Twins shows just how flimsy this
team really is.
Johan Santana -- that's Mr. Cy Young to you -- is no doubt among the pitchers in the majors with the prettiest stats. But like Britney Spears' inflatable pair or El Ladrón, his citizenship in the AL Central has lead to doubts as to whether his numbers are for real. His K/9 hasn't been quite so spectacular as at his career high of 11.38, but he's developed a remarkable improvement in his control, evidenced by his 4.67 K/BB rate. His postseason performance will likely be a strong indicator of how the Cy Young voting goes. His 195.0 innings pitched, also a career record, lands him in the top three in the AL. He's going to be one tired pony come October.
That part of the Twins' rotation Batgirl describes as "Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Sucky-Pitcher Pants" includes Carlos Silva, which should tell you everything you need to know about the Twins' starting staff beyond Santana and Radke. Dangerously low K/9 rates, pretty good control, but a career year for giving up the longball (20 in 165.2 IP) make him somebody the Twins would love to replace if they could.
The last of the starters (alphabetically, in case you hadn't noticed) is Brad Radke, is the Twins' number two. He's got good strikeout rates, combined with phenominal control: 6.84 K/BB is unheard of. He's been hurt in the past by the longball, and this season looks to be no different.
The Twins' bullpen has one great pitcher in it, and his name is Joe Nathan, the club's closer. He's a converted starter who never stuck in that role, he's got phenominal peripherals, but like Troy Percival, a pronounced propensity for flyball outs (about a 3:2 flyball/groundball out ratio). That is to say, he can make a game scary fast if he starts to unravel. He'll do the honors if the starters and middle relief can get the ball to him.
As for the rest of the club's relievers: 32-year-old Joe Roa is pushing career highs for innings pitched while his peripherals took a bit of a hit from last year. Expect him to be the odd man out in the postseason, but he might surprise. J. C. Romero found himself optioned to AAA Rochester on June 12, but just as quickly -- fourteen days later -- he was back at the big club, and hasn't given up an earned run since. Romero's got solid peripherals and keeps the ball in the park very well, only allowing a single home run all year. 11-6 Juan Rincon might be the best-rested of the four relievers; he's pitched appreciably more innings previously in his career. A light came on for Juan this year; his strikeout rate has nearly doubled, while he's posted the best K/BB of his career. Expect to see lots of him as the Twins' starters tire.
AL West: Oakland A's
Team Defensive Efficiency Rating: .704, 2nd in the AL
*as an Athletic
Let me tell you a dirty secret: in order of preference, here's who I'd like to see end up in the World Series this year in the AL that are actually in the lead for a playoff spot:
Johan Santana -- that's Mr. Cy Young to you -- is no doubt among the pitchers in the majors with the prettiest stats. But like Britney Spears' inflatable pair or El Ladrón, his citizenship in the AL Central has lead to doubts as to whether his numbers are for real. His K/9 hasn't been quite so spectacular as at his career high of 11.38, but he's developed a remarkable improvement in his control, evidenced by his 4.67 K/BB rate. His postseason performance will likely be a strong indicator of how the Cy Young voting goes. His 195.0 innings pitched, also a career record, lands him in the top three in the AL. He's going to be one tired pony come October.
That part of the Twins' rotation Batgirl describes as "Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Sucky-Pitcher Pants" includes Carlos Silva, which should tell you everything you need to know about the Twins' starting staff beyond Santana and Radke. Dangerously low K/9 rates, pretty good control, but a career year for giving up the longball (20 in 165.2 IP) make him somebody the Twins would love to replace if they could.
The last of the starters (alphabetically, in case you hadn't noticed) is Brad Radke, is the Twins' number two. He's got good strikeout rates, combined with phenominal control: 6.84 K/BB is unheard of. He's been hurt in the past by the longball, and this season looks to be no different.
The Twins' bullpen has one great pitcher in it, and his name is Joe Nathan, the club's closer. He's a converted starter who never stuck in that role, he's got phenominal peripherals, but like Troy Percival, a pronounced propensity for flyball outs (about a 3:2 flyball/groundball out ratio). That is to say, he can make a game scary fast if he starts to unravel. He'll do the honors if the starters and middle relief can get the ball to him.
As for the rest of the club's relievers: 32-year-old Joe Roa is pushing career highs for innings pitched while his peripherals took a bit of a hit from last year. Expect him to be the odd man out in the postseason, but he might surprise. J. C. Romero found himself optioned to AAA Rochester on June 12, but just as quickly -- fourteen days later -- he was back at the big club, and hasn't given up an earned run since. Romero's got solid peripherals and keeps the ball in the park very well, only allowing a single home run all year. 11-6 Juan Rincon might be the best-rested of the four relievers; he's pitched appreciably more innings previously in his career. A light came on for Juan this year; his strikeout rate has nearly doubled, while he's posted the best K/BB of his career. Expect to see lots of him as the Twins' starters tire.
AL West: Oakland A's
Team Defensive Efficiency Rating: .704, 2nd in the AL| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | K/9 | K/BB | G/F | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rich Harden |
9-5 |
3.69 |
7.83 | 1.94 |
1.13 |
40.0 |
| Tim Hudson |
11-4 |
2.95 |
4.75 | 2.47 |
2.60 |
45.9 |
| Mark Mulder |
17-4 |
3.79 |
5.67 |
1.77 |
.691 |
50.5 |
| Mark Redman |
10-10 | 4.50 | 4.66 |
1.55 | 0.94 |
19.8 |
| Barry Zito |
10-9 |
4.58 |
6.79 |
1.91 |
0.85 |
21.7 |
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | K/9 | K/BB | G/F | VORP |
| Chad Bradford |
5-5 |
4.44 |
5.68 |
1.78 |
3.00 |
8.4 |
| Justin Duchscherer |
5-5 |
3.11 |
5.89 |
2.12 |
1.08 |
26.7 |
| Chris Hammond |
3-1 |
3.32 |
5.98 |
3.00 |
1.08 |
9.4 |
| Octavio Dotel* |
4-5 |
4.26 |
12.55 |
4.82 |
0.46 |
6.9 |
| Ricardo Rincon |
3-3 |
3.53 |
8.33 |
2.20 |
1.04 |
9.9 |
*as an Athletic
Let me tell you a dirty secret: in order of preference, here's who I'd like to see end up in the World Series this year in the AL that are actually in the lead for a playoff spot:
- Boston Red Sox
- Oakland A's
- Minnesota Twins
- New York Yankees
Which is to say, I like the Sox as a
secondary team, I have no love for the Yankees, the Twins play in a
weak division and aren't deserving, and the A's have been this close so many times I almost
want to hand it to them. But rooting for the A's in the postseason will
have to wait until after the season is over and/or they're not playing
the Sox, during which time, if the
Angels can beat them and win the division, well, so much the better.
Angels bloggers who think ill of me because of this -- well, tough on
you.
Despite what looks like a fourth consecutive division win, in some ways it's been an odd and disappointing year for the A's. Their fearsome triumvirate of Zito/Hudson/Mulder hasn't been as strong as in years past, and their bullpen has gotten famously shakier.Since the All-Star break, the trio posted a 4.28 collective ERA, hardly the stuff of which postseason runs are built. Still, the Angels would have won the division had they had any three of these guys instead of Lackey, Ortiz, and Sele.
I first saw Rich Harden's major league debut against the Angels last year in a 8-1 pounding; this year, he's been the A's most consistent starter after Tim Hudson. Harden testifies to the A's ability to turn out quality starters at the minor league level, something the Angels have not been able to do lately, with their best pitching prospects Ervin Santana and Bobby Jenks shut down for most of 2004.
If you wanted to know who I thought should get the AL Cy Young, there'd be no question: it's Tim Hudson. Here's the funny thing, though: his K/9 has taken a sudden drop -- 4.75 vs a career 6.55 -- but he's keeping the ball in the strike zone, and in the park, with only four home runs allowed this year. Hudson's the kind of dominating presence you want on the mound, although his sudden decline in strikeouts is alarming. I like to see a lot of strikeouts in a pitcher, so in a sense, if he does get the Cy Young, it'll be for his contributions in previous seasons, just like the Oscars frequently are. He'll lead the charge into the postseason -- assuming he doesn't fall prey to a hip injury, something alluded to in part 3 of Tyler's interview with Billy Beane.
Mark Mulder's peripherals didn't exactly take a nosedive, but neither has he been quite the same Agent Mulder of years past. Mulder suffered a stress fracture of his hip last year, and he doesn't seem to have quite recovered from it. His ERA is up and his peripherals down slightly, and his home run count is already higher than in two of his past three years.
Acquired in the offseason from Florida, Mark Redman won't impress anybody as a front-line ace, but he's a good option in case Hudson or Mulder fall to an injury -- as Mulder did last year.
Whither Barry Zito? To say that he's collapsed is to overstate the case, but a 4.58 ERA two years removed from a Cy Young award shows just how the mighty have fallen, &c. Billy Beane, in part 2 of Tyler's interview with him, calls his struggles this year "a blip on the screen". He might be right; Barry's K/9 has recovered some, and he's back over last year's 5.67, but I'm not convinced Zito isn't regressing to a bad place.
As to the infamous bullpen: looking at VORP, it's Justin Duchscherer and everybody else. That's a pretty surprising statement considering Octavio Dotel was expected to be the lights-out closer Arthur Rhodes wasn't. Dotel's peripherals haven't taken a hit despite his inflated ERA since coming to the A's (and the AL), so the A's have reason to hope for better things from their closer. None of Chad Bradford, Ricardo Rincon, nor Chris Hammond have been especially impressive this year. Of the three, Hammond has the best peripherals.
AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox
Team Defensive Efficiency Rating: .691, tied for 5th in the AL
I said before the season started that the Red Sox might end up with the advantage this year because they loaded up on pitching while the Yanks loaded up on hitting. While that might be true -- and the Yanks could continue to slump, though I doubt they'll completely blow their lead -- the Sox this year have a clear advantage in starting pitching. Once you start talking about the relievers, though, the situation is reversed, because the Yanks still have a better top three (Quantrill, Gordon, Rivera) than the Red Sox (Foulke, Timlin, Mendoza).
Looking at Curt Schilling's peripherals over his career, it's a wonder he never won a Cy Young. Schilling's suffered some declines in his K/9 and K/BB rates this year (down three strikeouts since last year), but it's within his career ranges. He's going to log over 200 innings pitched this year, which shouldn't be a concern, but given his age (37), it's conceivable he might be tired at the end of the season.
As with Schilling's situation in Arizona, he's got a co-ace in Pedro Martinez. Martinez, a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer if ever there was one, has an ERA over 3.00 for the first time in his career since 1995. His sterling peripherals are more or less stable, but his WHIP has taken a big jump (1.11 vs 1.02 career), but he's had a lot more big losses than he used to. The Sox are also leaning on him pretty hard this year; he's already pitched more innings this year (187.2) than he did last year (186.2). He's also given up more home runs this year (20) than he has since 1998. This is Martinez's last year under contract with the Sox, and he might not come back. He'll still be one of the guys the Sox count on in the stretch.
The dropoff between Schilling and Martinez and the pair Bronson Arroyo and Tim Wakefield is huge, but that's not to say they aren't good pitchers. Wakefield, a knuckleball specialist, has seen a big drop in his strikeout rate, but his K/BB remains stable and he's keeping things on the ground. Arroyo's already given up a record number of home runs this year, and he's already hit a career high in innings pitched. The Sox will have to start both these guys in the postseason.
Keith Foulke, the former closer for the A's, is having a nice season with good peripherals. The one thing that does bug me about him, though, is his propensity for giving up flyballs. Of course, I find Troy Percival-type closers scary in general. The problem with the Boston bullpen is that the gap between him and Mendoza and Timlin is pretty substantial. The bullpen took a big hit earlier this year when Scott Williamson (0-0, 1.25 ERA) went on the DL for elbow surgery. The pair of Ramiro Mendoza (who hasn't pitched 20 innings this year and owns weak peripherals) and Mike Timlin (who's suffered a noticeable increase in his WHIP) don't give anyone a lot of confidence about the rest of the bullpen.
Of course, you have to take that with a grain of salt; the A's bullpen gets extra points because they'll carry more than one guy into the postseason, but I didn't try to make a clear decision about which one of a flaky bunch would get playing time. And of course you have to derate the Twins' bullpen for the AL Central effect. It's actually pretty close, but I'd give the edge to the Sox, because even with a tired Pedro, it's hard for the other teams to replicate the one-two punch of Schilling and Martinez.
Despite what looks like a fourth consecutive division win, in some ways it's been an odd and disappointing year for the A's. Their fearsome triumvirate of Zito/Hudson/Mulder hasn't been as strong as in years past, and their bullpen has gotten famously shakier.Since the All-Star break, the trio posted a 4.28 collective ERA, hardly the stuff of which postseason runs are built. Still, the Angels would have won the division had they had any three of these guys instead of Lackey, Ortiz, and Sele.
I first saw Rich Harden's major league debut against the Angels last year in a 8-1 pounding; this year, he's been the A's most consistent starter after Tim Hudson. Harden testifies to the A's ability to turn out quality starters at the minor league level, something the Angels have not been able to do lately, with their best pitching prospects Ervin Santana and Bobby Jenks shut down for most of 2004.
If you wanted to know who I thought should get the AL Cy Young, there'd be no question: it's Tim Hudson. Here's the funny thing, though: his K/9 has taken a sudden drop -- 4.75 vs a career 6.55 -- but he's keeping the ball in the strike zone, and in the park, with only four home runs allowed this year. Hudson's the kind of dominating presence you want on the mound, although his sudden decline in strikeouts is alarming. I like to see a lot of strikeouts in a pitcher, so in a sense, if he does get the Cy Young, it'll be for his contributions in previous seasons, just like the Oscars frequently are. He'll lead the charge into the postseason -- assuming he doesn't fall prey to a hip injury, something alluded to in part 3 of Tyler's interview with Billy Beane.
Mark Mulder's peripherals didn't exactly take a nosedive, but neither has he been quite the same Agent Mulder of years past. Mulder suffered a stress fracture of his hip last year, and he doesn't seem to have quite recovered from it. His ERA is up and his peripherals down slightly, and his home run count is already higher than in two of his past three years.
Acquired in the offseason from Florida, Mark Redman won't impress anybody as a front-line ace, but he's a good option in case Hudson or Mulder fall to an injury -- as Mulder did last year.
Whither Barry Zito? To say that he's collapsed is to overstate the case, but a 4.58 ERA two years removed from a Cy Young award shows just how the mighty have fallen, &c. Billy Beane, in part 2 of Tyler's interview with him, calls his struggles this year "a blip on the screen". He might be right; Barry's K/9 has recovered some, and he's back over last year's 5.67, but I'm not convinced Zito isn't regressing to a bad place.
As to the infamous bullpen: looking at VORP, it's Justin Duchscherer and everybody else. That's a pretty surprising statement considering Octavio Dotel was expected to be the lights-out closer Arthur Rhodes wasn't. Dotel's peripherals haven't taken a hit despite his inflated ERA since coming to the A's (and the AL), so the A's have reason to hope for better things from their closer. None of Chad Bradford, Ricardo Rincon, nor Chris Hammond have been especially impressive this year. Of the three, Hammond has the best peripherals.
AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox
Team Defensive Efficiency Rating: .691, tied for 5th in the AL| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | K/9 | K/BB | G/F | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bronson Arroyo |
7-9 |
4.24 |
7.42 |
2.77 |
1.11 |
16.2 |
| Pedro Martinez |
15-5 |
3.55 |
9.45 |
4.19 |
0.91 |
47.2 |
| Curt Schilling |
17-6 |
3.39 |
7.73 |
5.79 |
1.00 |
57.8 |
| Tim Wakefield |
11-8 |
4.67 |
5.50 |
2.07 |
1.28 |
21.1 |
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | K/9 | K/BB | G/F | VORP |
| Keith Foulke |
3-3 |
1.76 |
8.41 |
4.47 |
0.68 |
32.5 |
| Ramiro Mendoza |
1-0 |
1.86 |
4.66 |
2.00 |
1.76 |
9.0 |
| Mike Timlin |
4-4 |
4.39 |
7.13 | 3.25 | 1.65 |
14.3 |
I said before the season started that the Red Sox might end up with the advantage this year because they loaded up on pitching while the Yanks loaded up on hitting. While that might be true -- and the Yanks could continue to slump, though I doubt they'll completely blow their lead -- the Sox this year have a clear advantage in starting pitching. Once you start talking about the relievers, though, the situation is reversed, because the Yanks still have a better top three (Quantrill, Gordon, Rivera) than the Red Sox (Foulke, Timlin, Mendoza).
Looking at Curt Schilling's peripherals over his career, it's a wonder he never won a Cy Young. Schilling's suffered some declines in his K/9 and K/BB rates this year (down three strikeouts since last year), but it's within his career ranges. He's going to log over 200 innings pitched this year, which shouldn't be a concern, but given his age (37), it's conceivable he might be tired at the end of the season.
As with Schilling's situation in Arizona, he's got a co-ace in Pedro Martinez. Martinez, a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer if ever there was one, has an ERA over 3.00 for the first time in his career since 1995. His sterling peripherals are more or less stable, but his WHIP has taken a big jump (1.11 vs 1.02 career), but he's had a lot more big losses than he used to. The Sox are also leaning on him pretty hard this year; he's already pitched more innings this year (187.2) than he did last year (186.2). He's also given up more home runs this year (20) than he has since 1998. This is Martinez's last year under contract with the Sox, and he might not come back. He'll still be one of the guys the Sox count on in the stretch.
The dropoff between Schilling and Martinez and the pair Bronson Arroyo and Tim Wakefield is huge, but that's not to say they aren't good pitchers. Wakefield, a knuckleball specialist, has seen a big drop in his strikeout rate, but his K/BB remains stable and he's keeping things on the ground. Arroyo's already given up a record number of home runs this year, and he's already hit a career high in innings pitched. The Sox will have to start both these guys in the postseason.
Keith Foulke, the former closer for the A's, is having a nice season with good peripherals. The one thing that does bug me about him, though, is his propensity for giving up flyballs. Of course, I find Troy Percival-type closers scary in general. The problem with the Boston bullpen is that the gap between him and Mendoza and Timlin is pretty substantial. The bullpen took a big hit earlier this year when Scott Williamson (0-0, 1.25 ERA) went on the DL for elbow surgery. The pair of Ramiro Mendoza (who hasn't pitched 20 innings this year and owns weak peripherals) and Mike Timlin (who's suffered a noticeable increase in his WHIP) don't give anyone a lot of confidence about the rest of the bullpen.
Conclusion
Based on VORP:| Team | VORP |
|---|---|
| A's |
239.2 |
| Twins |
231.9 |
| Red Sox |
198.1 |
| Yankees |
196.5 |
Of course, you have to take that with a grain of salt; the A's bullpen gets extra points because they'll carry more than one guy into the postseason, but I didn't try to make a clear decision about which one of a flaky bunch would get playing time. And of course you have to derate the Twins' bullpen for the AL Central effect. It's actually pretty close, but I'd give the edge to the Sox, because even with a tired Pedro, it's hard for the other teams to replicate the one-two punch of Schilling and Martinez.
Comments:
Slight correction. Rich Harden's debut was against the Royals, the game against the Angels was his second start.
# posted by 
: 9/04/2004 08:46:00 PM
: 9/04/2004 08:46:00 PM
Newer› ‹Older
 |
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.