Monday, December 20, 2004 |
The Big Trade In Review
- From the Dodgers to the Snakes: Shawn Green, Brad Penny, Yhency Brazoban, and RHP Brandon Weeden
- From Arizona to the Yankees: Randy Johnson
- From the Yankees to the Dodgers: Javier Vazquez, C Dioner Navarro, and 3B prospect Eric Duncan, and $3M in cash to buy out Ishii's contract.
- From the Snakes to the Dodgers: Mike Koplove
- From the Dodgers to the Yankees: Kazuhisa Ishii
What The Dodgers Surrender
Shawn Green
PECOTA card (Projected 2005 VORP: 35)Age on opening day: 32
Year AB Line VORP =============================== 2002 582 .285/.385/.558 65.5 2003 611 .280/.355/.460 36.5 2004 590 .266/.352/.459 34.7
Green's 2002 was far more in line with his previous years than his 2003/2004, but even in today's bull market, he's noticeably overpaid at $16M/year. (ESPN lists it at $16.7M.) Green's 2003 and 2004 campaigns can hardly be classified as anything other than a disappointment, tempered with the knowledge that he played through a shoulder injury in 2003 and recovered from it in 2004. That we could be talking here about the 32-year-old Green could be traded anywhere speaks in some wise to the ability of DePodesta to get trades done.
Green's 2004 PECOTA card shows him with a 50th percentile VORP of 40.4, which was a good bit ahead of his actual 34.7. Next year, it projected him to be closer to three wins (30.0 VORP), but then, most of the comparable players were positive, and if he didn't meet his similarity index threshold at 50 (he has 48 comparables), he came awfully close. And there's ample room for optimism with Green, who had a greatly improved .281/.371/.529 line in the second half of 2004.
Brad Penny
PECOTA card (2005 projected VORP: 19)Age on opening day: 26
Year ERA IP K/9 K/BB VORP ===================================== 2002 4.66 129.1 6.47 1.86 3.1 2003 4.13 196.1 6.33 2.46 28.2 2004* 3.15 143.0 6.99 2.47 36.6
*combined Florida and Los Angeles
Outside of his arm injury, Penny should be an interesting pitcher. I say "should" because that injury history has prevented him from realizing his potential, a fact that 2004 underscored in detail. Penny had biceps inflammation and blister problems in 2002; his nerve problems this year, which may or may not have been related, certainly didn't help his reputation of fragility. That DePodesta's so willing to unload the fruits of his midseason trade so soon makes me wonder if more extensive experience with the Dodgers medical corps isn't the reason for the move. Nonetheless, Penny's similarity index of 67 is pretty solid, and PECOTA shows him a 2-win pitcher for the remainder of his career, his outstanding 2003 postseason notwithstanding.
Yhency Brazoban
PECOTA card (2005 projected VORP: 2)Age on opening day: 24
Year ERA IP K/9 K/BB VORP ===================================== 2004 2.48 32.2 7.44 1.80 11.7The pitcher who made Dan Evans' trade of Kevin Brown look like an absolute masterstroke, Brazoban came out of nowhere and racked up a 2.48 ERA with respectable strikeout and K/BB rates, replacing the expensive and aging Mota. Only 24, Brazoban would be under the Dodgers' control for another five years. Relievers, so we're told, are the easiest pitchers to find replacements for, but this Moneyball homily unravels quickly, something the A's discovered this year to their chagrin.
As to Brazoban's future: interestingly, PECOTA assigns him only a 26 similarity index, and tags him as a replacement-level pitcher for his career. But all that means is PECOTA doesn't have a lot of data to work with, and his numbers could go up or down. Clearly, he was a good bit better than replacement level this year, but perhaps Tom's skepticism about his future is more warranted than I initially thought.
Kazuhisa Ishii
PECOTA card (projected 2005 VORP: 5)Age on opening day: 31
Year ERA IP K/9 K/BB VORP ===================================== 2002 4.66 154.0 8.36 1.35 12.1 2003 3.86 147.0 8.57 1.39 21.0 2004 4.71 172.0 5.18 1.01 13.2
Ishii was done with the Dodgers after next year whether he pitched or not. Despite my earlier praise for his progress, that same turned out to be ephemeral, and he was not once, but twice removed from the rotation. Still, there are absolutely worse guys pitching in the majors today (viz. Aaron Sele or Shawn Estes), but their numbers rapidly dwindle. For a team far out of contention, Ishii may make an adequate three or four spot rotation pitcher, and therefore the Yankees should be able to flip him for something useful.
Brandon Weeden
Age on opening day: 21Update: Weeden was acquired as a throw-in to the trade that brought Yhency Brazoban and Jeff Weaver to the Dodgers. He's got good but not great strikeout rates, and adequate control. Josh Boyd in BA's 2003 chat on the Yankees ranked him outside the organization's top ten, a pretty dubious distinction. BA previously thought he was the best prospect taken in the 2002 draft by the Yankees, a multisport athlete in high school. He doesn't represent a significant throw-in based on subsequent performance, but might make a useful reliever at some point.
What The Dodgers Get In Return
Javier Vazquez
PECOTA card (projected 2005 VORP: 42)Age on opening day: 28
Year ERA IP K/9 K/BB VORP ===================================== 2002 3.90 230.1 6.99 3.65 29.8 2003 3.24 230.2 6.99 3.65 52.9 2004 4.91 198.0 6.82 2.50 23.1
Early this year, I chided the Angels for failing to pick up the best available pitcher in the trade market, Javier Vazquez. Paul DePodesta clearly isn't letting an opportunity like this get away, not with the Yankees' sudden case of stomach cramps with their latest "pitcher of the future". There's a lot to be happy about here: Vazquez returns to the NL, and more, to Dodger Stadium, the rejuvenating properties of which have been remarked upon many a time. Over his career, Vazquez has had good to excellent strikeout rates, and even in Yankee Stadium, his strikeouts only declined a little, though his walks ascended. This may be a side effect of having Boston in his diet too often, as well as playing in the AL. (Update: and as The Fourth Outfielder observes, getting him the hell away from the poisonous effects of Mel Stottlemyre won't hurt, either. I had considered this but not written about it earlier myself.) Certainly, the Dodgers would have to be optimistic they can restore him to his previous level of performance at Montreal.
Dioner Navarro
PECOTA card (2005 projected VORP: 2)Age on opening day: 21
Year AB Line VORP =============================== 2004 7 .429/.429/.429 0.8
As I mentioned earlier in my initial, knocked-to-the-ground review of this proposal, Navarro was Baseball America's number one Yankees prospect in 2003, but bad things happened in 2004 and he slipped to number five. That isn't to say he's a bad prospect, but there's reasons to question how useful he'll be at the major league level. However, the Yankees are famous for nothing if not avoiding giving rookies playing time, so there's room for optimism, too. I don't necessarily agree with Tom that Navarro's status as a Yankee farmhand makes him underrated; if anything, the Yankees are all the more desperate to pawn off some bits and pieces for real live major leaguers, hence DePodesta's demand that the Dodgers receive at least two prospects from the Yankees. And PECOTA agrees with me, projecting Navarro to be only a league-average player, with the caveat that his similarity index is 15, an unusually low number. And, of course, this all before his poor showing this year.
Eric Duncan
Age on opening day: 20Duncan's only played in single-A, but Baseball America liked him so much they named him the Yankees' best prospect, as well as their most significant trading chip. He's off to a great start: compare his .260/.351/.479 line in single-A Battle Creek with James Loney's .276/.337/.400 line at the same point, and you get the impression of a young power hitter with a good amount of patience. Insert the usual caveats about the kid not playing above single-A, your rookies may vary, etc.
Mike Koplove
PECOTA card (projected 2005 VORP: 15)Age on opening day: 28
Year ERA IP K/9 K/BB VORP ===================================== 2002 3.36 61.2 6.71 2.00 12.8 2003 2.15 37.2 6.45 2.70 12.5 2004 4.05 86.2 5.71 1.49 12.9
Koplove, whose name sounds like either a porn star's or a guy who likes old movies, is, believe it or not, about as valuable by VORP as Yhency Brazoban. The problem is, he's done it in more innings than Brazoban, which means his MLVr is accordingly lower. He's projected to be about a win-and-a-half guy over his steadily declining career; his K/9 rate dropped nearly a whole point last year while he started giving up a bunch more walks. This is not a good sign, but translated from the hitter's park that is the BOB, he might be tolerable for a year or so in Chavez.
What Do It All Mean?
Dodgers
Lost:
VORP
Player 2004 Proj.
=======================
Brazoban 11.5 2
Green 34.7 35
Ishii 13.2 5
Penny 36.6 20
---------
Total 82.8 62
Gained:
VORP
Player 2004 Proj.
=======================
Vazquez 23.1 40
Koplove 12.9 15
Navarro 0.8 2
----------
Total: 36.8 57
So on the surface, this is an enormous loss for the Dodgers. The following points apply:
- Brazoban is much younger than Koplove and accomplished a lower ERA in fewer innings. Furthermore, PECOTA is very certain about Koplove's projection, but very uncertain about Brazoban's. This is most assuredly not a wash as far as talent goes.
- There's really no replacement for Green in this trade, and plenty of reason to believe that Green's 2005 will be much more like his second half 2004 than his first half.
- The prospects are exactly that, and will need additional refinement -- in Young's case, years of refinement -- before becoming major-league ready. However, with Navarro, they get an important piece the team lost when DePo traded Koyie Hill.
- Vazquez is slightly younger than Penny, but I like his upside -- i.e., a return to his career before his brief stint in pinstripes -- much more than Penny's. Vazquez's health is also much better than Penny's, and should continue to be.
- Vazquez causes the Dodgers to spend a bunch ($9M), but he's a better bet than most of the free agent pitchers available this year. This is more than offset by moving Green ($16M) and Penny ($6M). Brazoban and Koplove are a wash, dollar-wise, and getting the Yankees to take -- let alone pay for -- Ishii is nothing short of a miracle.
- Update: Even though the projected numbers are much closer than the 2004 numbers, I would be very skeptical about the projected numbers; I believe them to be unreasonably conservative, particularly with regards to Brazoban and Green.
Update 12/21/04: Updated the Dodgers list to include throw-in Brandon Weeden.
*Yes, I know about this subsequent post, but if you're going to bag on me for failing to analyze the trade, be prepared to do it yourself first, buster.
It seems like an ok move for the Dodgers to me, if only because it gives them some flexibility inside McCourt’s budget going forward. Sure, it probably signals that the DePo has given up on 2005, but I expected as much after Beltre bailed.
Tommy, Steve -- Steve's right, this trade can't be analyzed in a vacuum, but neither can it stand of its own accord, either. If you get Drew, it looks better. If you get Drew and some better pitching, you're even better off. So there's reasons for optimism, and that's coming from somebody who was panicing only a few days ago.
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