Wednesday, December 01, 2004 |
Oakland's Elephant In The Room
It's hard to change a reputation in baseball, for better or for worse. From Carl Everett, who spent years as a model citizen and is still thought of as a madman, to Jim Edmonds, who recently won a fifth straight Gold Glove out of sheer inertia, the ideas people have of public figures are rarely revisited. There are many reputations in need of scrutiny, but none more so than that of Oakland General Manager Billy Beane, who has been lauded by so many for so long that his deals are by now acclaimed out of mere habit.Is that right? Kendall's 2004 VORP turned out to be 47.5, up from a projected 39.3 90th percentile VORP. That's almost a whole win, and while it's no small change, PECOTA also can't make up its mind about him because of so few comparables (29, 50 or more is considered a well-projectable career). But even assuming he does decline, solid catchers are harder to find than mediocre pitchers, a point Marchman concedes. It also means the A's can bring up Huston Street and Joe Blanton rather than them being blocked by Redman and Rhodes.This was the case with Beane's acquisition last week of catcher Jason Kendall for starter Mark Redman and reliever Arthur Rhodes. The deal was a risk, albeit one that was arguably worth taking, and is likely to hurt the A's more than it will help them in years to come.
Kendall's value, coming off a superb year in which he caught 146 games and finished ninth in the National League in on-base average, is almost certainly about to collapse. He is a historically unique player, a catcher who provides solid offense based almost entirely on durability (he's had at least 545 at-bats each of the last three years) and batting average (he's hit .319 or better in five different seasons).
There are problems with this. First, even when he hits .320, Kendall is merely a decent hitter: His OPS, after adjusting for park effects, was just 10% better than league average this year. When he hits .280, as he did in 2002, that figure drops to 20% worse than average. Other than hitting singles and drawing walks, he has no offensive skills. This hasn't been a problem yet, because when you combine that on base ability with great durability, you have a significant asset.
Unfortunately, Kendall is not going to endure. In the postwar history of baseball, there are all of 26 player seasons in which a catcher older than 30 has had at least 500 at-bats. Interestingly, the only good campaigns among these were had by power hitters [emphasis mine].
But, says Marchman, this is just window-dressing.
All of this is small change next to the main item on the A's agenda, moving one of their Big Three of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. There is reason to think that each has reached the peak of his value....It doesn't bear repeating from Los Angeles's -- er, Anaheim's -- vantage point that the A's have won all the division titles over the last five years, save the last one. Moneyball detractors like Stephen Smith have long condemned Beane's trades as overrated, and indeed this article might be the first time somebody in the mainstream media notices that point. It's a little facile to simply dismiss this as a case of voodoo scouting against green-eyeshades sabermetrics; the real cause for the A's success has been their hyperproductive farm system, one whose output has tailed off of late. Does it really take a PhD from Yale to recognize that Oakland's drafts (save this year's) have fallen into increasing disrepute since Grady Fuson, the man who ran the club's scouting operations when they acquired such names as Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada, left the club? Beane's ransacking of the team's spare parts in trade hasn't miraculously created more stars, the kinds of difference-makers that can win titles. "He's earned the benefit of the doubt," Marchman continues, "but for him to earn a return to the playoffs he'll have to do a lot more than keep playing his shell game." I couldn't agree more. For one thing, Schott needs to ease up on the stranglehold he exerts over the team's payroll.Even if he is able to pull off a great deal with a club like Philadelphia - which has the cheap, talented young players it would take to pry away one of these pitchers - Oakland's future as an elite team is in doubt. It appears now that Hudson, Mulder, and Zito were overworked when they first came to the big leagues, and with those three starting to break down, this is a pitching-and-defense team without much pitching. The A's will still contend for the AL West crown, but they are hardly the dominant force they looked poised to become two years ago.
The Kendall deal is not much of a risk when you take into account the money that the Pirates are sending Bean's way. So when the money in practically a wash (at least for the first couple of years) it comes down to this: Who would you rather put your trust in - the durability of Jason Kendall, or the enigmas that are Arthur Rhodes and Mark Redman?
>hyperproductive farm system, one whose output has
>tailed off of late.
2004:
Rich Harden, now referred to as part of the Big Four
Bobby Crosby R.O.Y.
2005?
Nick Swisher another?
Huston Street
Jairo Garcia
Joe Blanton
Chavez, and Byrnes are in house, and infield and backstop are suppposedly 'points of strength' that moneyball gm's like to 'deal from', bringing in pennant type CF's and DH's (Kotsay and Durazo 2004, or RF's and 1st Basemen (just watch...)
just a thought...from a tigers fan living in the bay area
: 12/01/2004 01:11:00 PMSo Giambi is now the baseline measure for every rookie (I assume you mean the MVP caliber Giambi and not the parasite-ridden slug currently sucking up payroll in the Bronx). Then by that measure, nearly every rookie would be considered a failure.
The comparison to Tejada is even sillier -- you're comparing a rookie to an eight-year Major Leaguer. Better to look at Tejada's rookie stats from 1998: .233/.298/.384 with 11 homers and 45 RBI with some truly cringe-worthy moments in the field.
I do not think Crosby will become the player that Tejada is now, but I'm fairly confident that he's more likely to improve upon the performance of a pretty solid debut season than to go the Super Joe Charbenou route.
-- Phil
: 12/01/2004 09:55:00 PM : 12/01/2004 10:10:00 PMNewer› ‹Older
 |
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.