Monday, January 10, 2005
The Snakes, for their part, have gotten older, and oddly for a team with as much leftover salary baggage from their 2001 title run, have gotten more expensive -- though not as much as you might think at first. Stefan reads the tea leaves and calls a Green trade with an extension a "pretty bad" scenario, and I'm not sure I disagree. A 35-year-old Green will have to overcome a lot of odds before he can hand out a lot of batting gloves. He was simply lucky enough to be pushed into a market at a time when he would be overvalued. But It's A Dry Heat concurs, noting that ranked by OPS, Green's nearest neighbors are paid around half his annual salary. If Tom's supposition about Green's future value is correct, this amounts to a major coup for DePodesta. If, however, Green's second half represents more of his future than his first half of 2004 -- as I believe -- it's not such a bad deal, especially with the Dodgers picking up the first year for free. ZiPS projects Green to have a .271/.357/.469 line this year -- around 20 VORP or so, about two wins. Allowing for the $10M the Dodgers paid the Snakes, this evens out Green's annual salary to $7.33M/year, still a bit on the high end of that range, but not a terrible overpayment for the Snakes considering current market conditions.
Echoing Jon: good luck, Shawn. And may the Dodgers, too, find their own good luck.