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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 |
Pickoff Moves, Lunchtime Edition
Laying The Blame
Joe Sheehan today looks at the rising phoenix in Phoenix, asserting that the club's actual record is actually more representative of their ability than their Pythagorean won-loss record. Though neither is a true picture, he says, the team is really liable to be a 75-79 win team: just under .500, but not horribly so. He suggests the key to reconciling the discrepancy between the two is to look at who tallied the Snakes' worst losses:In games decided by at least seven runs, the Diamondbacks are 0-4. That's four blowout losses (8-1, 16-6, 16-2 and 18-3) for a net of -46 runs. They have no blowout wins, so those four games--really, the two biggest losses--are serving to distort their RS/RA at this point. Those losses are been exacerbated by a horrible back end of the bullpen. The Snakes have five relievers who have made at least four appearances and posted an ERA of at least 8.31, plus Greg Aquino's sole contribution of the year, a four-run inning on Opening Day. The 16-2 loss to the Pirates? A Kerry Ligtenberg one-inning, seven-run meltdown. Rockies win 18-3? Ligtenberg again (five runs in 1 2/3 innings) and Javier Lopez (five runs in 2/3 of an inning).Can we use the same prism for the Dodgers? Not really; unlike the Snakes, the Dodgers have blown out a few, and the pitching has been bad all around. The rotation's 4.59 ERA is 13th in the league, and the bullpen -- coincidentally with a 4.59 ERA -- is 11th. Much as I'd like to blame this on a few pitchers, the reality is the blame goes around pretty uniformly.
More BPro Dodgers Notes
While Jay Jaffe busies himself altarizing his girlfriend, Thomas Gorman takes over the Dodgers PTP duties. Today's piece has one bit about Jose Valentin that needs sharing:On May 3, Valentin badly sprained his right knee following a rough slide into Brian Schneider at home plate. A sprain, for those new to the whole Medhead revolution, is simply an "injury to the ligaments around a joint". Sprains come in three varieties: Grade I, which is simply a stressed stretching of the ligament that causes microscopic damage but no tearing; Grade II, a more significant stretching and partial tearing, but no significant instability; and Grade III, serious tearing with significant instability in the joint.He also calls Oscar Robles a "useful" third baseman, better than the "passable in an emergency" solution of Olmaedo Saenz.Valentin's particular injury involved a Grade II sprain of the medial collateral (MCL) and posterior cruciate ligaments (PCL), and a Grade I sprain of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). MCLs are most often injured when the outside of the knee is struck; PCLs are most often injured when an athlete falls on a bent knee.
The current plan is to rehab first and see if Valentin's season can be salvaged without surgery. It's a curious decision at first glance--the grade II tears to the MCL and PCL are fairly serious injuries--but a surgery now would almost definitely keep Valentin out for the entire year, and waiting 8-10 weeks and then cutting him open doesn't really make an eventual recovery more difficult; it just pushes it off a bit. If the delay and rehab work, the Dodgers get him back a bit after the All-Star break. If the rehab fails, and they have to open his knee, it's no different to the Dodgers than if they operated right now.
Ishii Reactivated
The Mets have reactivated starter Kaz Ishii, who will pitch against the Reds.Bryan Smith Ranks The NL Drafters
Bryan Smith at Baseball Analysts ranks the men drafting baseball players in the National League. Let me say this: he minces no words on Logan White's non-record.What is very interesting about White is the fact that he has gotten so much press, but still has not produced a Los Angeles Dodger. Baseball America has ranked all of White's drafts highly, likely because he caters to the high school heavy philosophy that BA tends to support. White has proven that he -- not Paul DePodesta -- will be drafting in Los Angeles, though expect a few DePo sleepers to sneak into the later rounds. Logan White is as well thought of as any scouting director in the business, and is a few less injuries from creating a star-studded resume. Expect the high school picks in the first round to continue.Update: Rich Lederer wrote in to say that I misattributed this piece to him. Sorry for the confusion.
OP, Perez Updates
- Odalis Perez will miss his Friday start against the Angels.
- Antonio Perez ends his rehab stint and will be sent up to the big club Wednesday. Oscar Robles will be sent down to Las Vegas to make room.
Comments:
While D-Back fans (including myself) have used that "3 bad losses" mantra repeatedly (really, I wonder if invoking a 10-run "mercy rule" would improve Pythagorean accuracy), the one worrisome thing is that the D-Backs don't have any of those kinds of victories to balance it out.
But that's an offensive problem on our end, unlike your pitching problem.
But that's an offensive problem on our end, unlike your pitching problem.
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