6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

Introduction

Phew. If I had to say anything about the 2005 Dodgers, it would start with the word "unlucky" followed by "terrible" and maybe some unprintables. Be that as it may -- here we go --

Rotation

What hasn't gone catastrophically wrong with the Dodgers this year? I was going to write that the rotation wasn't as bad as I feared, but that only comes from a sudden revulsion to watching this nine-car-pileup-with-fatalities team. They're now 13th in the NL by ERA, have given up fifth most home runs in the NL, all the while wracked with injuries. Let's take a look at the blood on the street that is the 2005 Dodger rotation:

							VORP
Player	W-L	ERA	IP	K/9	K/BB	WHIP	2005 Projected	2005 Actual
Derek Lowe	5-9	3.99	119.2	6.09	2.89	1.35	17.6	7.7
Jeff Weaver	7-8	4.44	119.2	5.94	2.82	1.24	21.7	13.7
Brad Penny	5-5	3.43	97.0	5.20	3.50	1.19	15.4	24.2
Odalis Perez	4-5	4.97	58.0	6.05	2.79	1.22	24.9	3.2
Scott Erickson	1-4	7.22	38.2	1.86	0.47	1.68	3.7	-2.2
D.J. Houlton	4-2	5.21	38.0	6.87	2.07	1.39	0.9	-1.9
Elmer Dessens	0-1	3.00	24.0	4.13	1.00	1.21	1.8	4.6
Derek Thompson	0-0	4.20	15.0	6.60	1.22	1.53	N/A	4.5

I'm buffing my nails on my lapels over my earlier prediction that Derek Lowe would be a mediocre pitcher. Whether or not I was right about DePodesta reacting to the market rather than having a solid plan, the results are so far the same either way. However, before I get too excited here, it's worth remembering that Lowe doesn't have quality defense behind him most nights; the defense at third arguably took a hit even before the first game of the season, and as the infield has gotten increasingly injured (or in the case of Hee who will not be named, is a less than Gold Glove defender in the first place), you could argue that a groundball guy like Lowe suffers disproportionately. You could argue that, except for the unfortunate fact that he's on pace to give up about 30 home runs this year. That is, every single sign shows Lowe to be an overpriced bust thus far, a conclusion Jon reluctantly came to recently. Park factor theorists, wishful thinkers, and speculative statistical manipulators might want to revisit their arguments right about now.

Grade: C-

Is it a shock to find Jeff Weaver in the number two slot by virtue of innings pitched? With this crazy year, anything could happen, and the guy who's a 3-4 talent at most is pitching like that again, only this year the longball plagues him like nobody's business. He's given up 17 already, and that puts him on pace for about 30. If Boras is going to try to get him a big bucks contract with that kind of negative, well, good luck, buddy.

Grade: C

Amidst the storm, Brad Penny quietly has put together the kind of season Paul DePodesta must have hoped for last year. His 24.2 VORP is tied for 17th in the NL (with Mark Redman of Pittsburgh). I have to believe he'll regress a bit as the year trails off, the air heats up and thins out, but, aside from his early injury problems, his is a lone beacon in the Dodgers' awful 2005.

Grade: B+

Odalis Perez has barely pitched this year, thanks to shoulder trouble; that the Dodgers re-signed him despite this testifies to the thinness of the offseason pitching market, as well as the paucity of options in the farm. DePo can't like what he's seeing here.

Grade: D+

Scott Erickson should not be on a major league team.

Grade: F

Rule 5 draftee D.J. Houlton hasn't been awful, but it testifies to the Dodgers' declining trust in him that they decided to use the All-Star break to skip his turn in the rotation. He's a low-cost risk, but his lack of terribleness doesn't equal good at the same time. Better options exist, somewhere... don't they?

Grade: D+

Former Diamondback Elmer Dessens is just another in a long line of guys who really aren't that good, but thanks to the second law of thermodynamics and Murphy's Law, here he is. He's not on the rotation on a contending team, unless somebody else is injured. That he's even been injured is just an added insult.

Grade: D+

There were a few scattered catcalls when Derek Thompson was sent down while Scott Erickson remained on the team. It's hard to imagine Thompson with his 1.53 WHIP (vs. 1.68 for Erickson) would have done all that much better as he continued on. He's got the best ERA of any pitcher on the staff at Las Vegas (3.51) after 17.0 IP, and while that's a tiny sample size, it shows that the Dodgers might have good reason to think he'll be ready for 2006.

Grade: B, based on his rookieness.

Bullpen

This bullpen is terrible. Sixth in home runs allowed, ninth in K/9, and eleventh in ERA (all in the NL), this is just a wobbly bullpen. Losing Eric Gagné was a hard blow, but here's a little surprise: despite his awfulness, Duaner Sanchez has actually nearly doubled his K/9 rate over last year while slightly improving his K/BB rate; he's on pace for about the same number of home runs as last year. Yhency Brazoban, despite the earlier "Ghame Over" bravado afforded him by a number of Dodger fans on Jon's site, hasn't proved himself worthy of the hype; he's already doubled last year's home runs against, and his .261 average against is a big step up from last year's .219. Giovanni Carrara's control has taken a big hit from last year, dropping nearly a point off his K/BB.

Grade: D, but on the condition that it's been driven, as everything with the 2005 Dodgers, by injuries.

Catcher

Jason Phillips came on strong, and has melted down somewhat from his early heroics. He's not Paul LoDuca, but given the overall level of performance versus the cost, you can't complain. His platoonmate, Paul Bako, is out for the season, so he's sharing time with Mike Rose, who's happy just to be in the big leagues.

Update 7/13: Actually, I can complain, and will. Phillips is throwing out an abysmal 21.4% of all base stealers. Not even baserunner challenged Benjie Molina is that bad (25.9%), though he isn't much better anymore, either.

Grade: B-

First Base

Hee Seop Choi is Tracy's backup girl, and as a fan, you have to be okay with that because there's no accounting for taste. Maybe Tracy has DePodesta's blessing, or maybe not; you'd think if the Dodgers made a big trade for a guy like Choi, they'd at least give him the majority of at bats, especially with the team struggling as it is; let the guy get comfortable at the plate, f'r chrissakes, and cut out the pretense that he needs to be babied against lefties. Choi's 7.8 VORP isn't that far from Olmedo Saenz' 12.6 VORP, even though it's in about fifty fewer at bats; what's the deal, Tracy? Whatever, when Saenz finally hits the DL, Tracy will have run out of excuses... or maybe they'll recall Norihiro Nakamura from Las Vegas.

Grade: B-. It's one of the few positions the Dodgers haven't lost substantial time due to injuries, and at this point, you'll take 'em where you can get 'em, never mind the absence of value the Dodgers are getting at first.

Second Base

Jeff Kent is performing as advertised. I won't complain about his prickly personality, not when he leads the Dodgers in VORP.

Grade: A, as you would expect from a future Hall-of-Famer.

Shortstop

Cesar Izturis is on track, more or less, for his 50th percentile VORP prediction. That is to say, his offensive output is badly overrated, and the Dodgers find themselves minus a reliable leadoff man even with him in the lineup. He still strikes out about twice as often as he walks, a trait shared by little brother Maicer. His defense, somewhat overrated in recent years, has improved a bit this year (104 Rate2); his absence becomes profoundly visible whenever Oscar Robles tries to take his place, and fails. And fails. And fails.

If Izturis weren't injured, I'd be looking for the Dodgers to move him.

Grade: C+, but his offensive trouble was somewhat predictable.

Third Base

The revolving door: will the Dodgers have anything meaningful to look forward to once Jose Valentin returns? Those home runs look tempting, but Mike Edwards and Antonio Perez have provided average that Valentin wouldn't have. This was a placeholder before 2005 started anyway, so I'm diffident about what any of these characters brought.

Grade: C-

Left Field

Supposed to be Jayson Werth's job to lose, he lost it when he got injured. Replacements Jason Repko and Jason Grabowski, while providing a Matrix-like quality to the outfield by making an all-Jason outfield possible, haven't been good either defensively or offensively. There's questions about Werth's long-term worth or whether he can handle a starting spot.

Grade: D+

Center Field

If there's a single injury that's really sunk the Dodgers this year, it's Milton Bradley's. Bradley's 16.6 VORP is still third on the team despite the amount of time he's missed due to his bizarre injury (regarding which, get the damn surgery, Milt). He's a 114 Rate2 defender in center, to boot. (Surprisingly, replacement J.D. Drew isn't that far behind him at 108.) None of his other replacements have been even adequate.

Grade: A (when Milton or Drew were patrolling there)
Grade: F (elsetimes)

Right Field

A thing of shreds and patches, J.D. Drew's 30.3 VORP still is second on the club despite injuries. Otherwise: junk, junk, and more junk. Drew's inability to hit in the clutch infuriated me before he was injured; now I can't wait for him to come back to infuriate me again. It's sick how codependents are.

Update 7/13: On second thought, only 36 RBIs? The Dodgers appear to have the most expensive, offensively-minded leadoff man in history...

Grade: A (Drew)
Grade: F (elsetimes)

Bench

Which bench? The one the team started the season with? Or the 51's pressed into service since then?

Grade: C-, mainly because of the injuries. I think this would have been a decent bench if it had worked out as designed.

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Well, that's all for now. Time to go back to playing with my automated minor league score crawler.