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Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Pickoff Moves, Lunchtime Edition

Bryan Smith Rates Catchers

Bryan Smith at The Baseball Analysts ranks catching prospects, and he has this to say about the two big prospects relevant to this blog:
2. Russ Martin (LA) - The default choice by many, Martin is the leader of the "solid if unspectacular" prospect brigade, where he teams with Brian Anderson. However, the latter is a far better prospect, as Martin's offensive tools lie completely in his plate discipline. Only Jeremy Hermida has a better eye among good prospects, and Russ combines his discipline skills with a solid strikeout rate. However, besides those skills, Martin is a mediocre-at-best offensive hitter. His low number of whiffs indicate good contact skills, but Martin's .358 BABIP is unsustainable, and if prorated to about .320, Martin's average drops in the .280 range. While a .280/.400/.380 catcher is solid, he does not project to be an offensive force by any means. On defense, however, is where Martin nearly laps the field. The Dodgers were extremely impressed with Martin's combination of catch-and-throw and game calling skills during Spring Training, and will surely give him a longer look next season if Dioner Navarro's struggles continue.

...

4. Jeff Mathis (ANA) - It seems as though there could be 100 different articles written on whether Mathis is a legit prospect or not. His inconsistency is an annoyance at best, as few prospects have as many torrid/horrid streaks skew their numbers as Mathis. In the end, for the past two seasons anyway, it seems Mathis usually falls in the gray area between solid prospect and not-so-good. Last year was not great by any means, but Jeff was given credit for breaking down in the Texas League, a difficult environment for any catcher to show endurance. This season his numbers have been substantially better, but are a result of both a fantastic beginning and a hitter's park. Mathis' walk and strikeout numbers are not worrisome, but not strengths, nor is his defense. Of the six tools that I recognize, Mathis hovers around average in five, and of course below average in foot speed. Consistency in the power department would be enough to put Mathis in the second spot on this list, but a lack of opportunity at such an age might be enough to argue he should be seventh.

Frankie's Playing With A Changeup

The pre-story of Francisco Rodriguez' amazing success in the 2002 postseason was one of injury cancelling his career as a starter. Through bad luck -- followed by the happenstance of Travs' closer Charlie Thames hitting the DL -- and dropping his secondary pitches did he become the wonder who tied Randy Johnson with the most postseason wins.

So now, after getting booed off the field recently, he's working on a changeup again.

"I guess my quote would be, 'I'm glad he's on our team,' " Angel first baseman Darin Erstad said. "I know pitchers keep adjusting; they find new stuff. But if Frankie could develop a good changeup … oh my goodness."

Boston catcher Jason Varitek, whose Red Sox just split a four-game series against the Angels, didn't want to fathom the thought of Rodriguez adding a changeup.

"I'm not going to give you an honest answer," Varitek said, when asked if Rodriguez can thrive with his two pitches, "because I don't want him to be any better than he already is."

...

Angel pitching coach Bud Black said it's important to experiment with new pitches and grips, but he's not sure Rodriguez needs a changeup.

"Do I think it's imperative? No. Will it add to his arsenal? Yes. Does he need it right now? No," Black said. "When you look at stuff, you look at batting average against, and he's one of the best in the league [at .178], so why would he need a new pitch?"

Update: Intelligent discussion of this bit at Chronicles, which sees it as nothing more than a DiGiovanna puff piece in reaction to Frankie's recent travails. Good catch, Chronicler.

McPherson Needs Hip Surgery

Dammit Dallas, just do it. The docs even think the spur may have contributed to the bulging disc in his back.

UTK Quickies

From today's UTK:

So, Just How Badly Do The Dodgers Suck?

Historically badly, says Mike Carminati. They're one of only a handful of teams that can boast a 12-2 start and a sub-.500 finish, and of them, they're perilously close to taking the suckage trophy from the 1914 Pirates.

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