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Wednesday, August 24, 2005 |
Saber-Homerism? Or Just Lousy Algorithms?
The adoption of Oakland as the universal pet of the sabermetric crowd has its annoyances to be sure, and one of them is seeing this Baseball Prospectus Hit List for last week. The A's go 1-5 against the likes of the middling Orioles and the bottom-feeding Royals, and they still get an up green arrow? Either that's the most blatant example of saber-homerism I've ever seen, or it's one heck of a flawed algorithm they're using to place those little arrows.
Update: Jay Jaffe responds.
Comments:
They my have moved up solely as a result of the free-falling Sox. But even then, you've got wonder how the Indians don't shoot right past them. And how do the Devil Rays stay stationary?
From Jay Jaffe:
Now, with regards to this week's rankings, I caught some flack from a few readers regarding the A's coming in at #3, rising a notch despite a 1-5 record. But the A's weren't the only high-ranked team to have a bad week. The White Sox had a much worse week, and those of the Angels and Braves, the two teams directly below the A's last week, were nothing to write home about. Here are the run totals of the four teams:
W-L RS RA
A's 1-5 17 24
Angels 3-4 30 27
Braves 2-4 33 36
White Sox 1-5 14 28
The A's, despite losing, at least did a relatively good job of preventing runs, which tends to have a positive effect on those Pythagorean calculations. The Angels actually allowed fewer runs per game, and they've got a better raw run differential this year than the A's, but once all of the adjustments are thrown in, the A's still come out ahead this week.
But not by much. In fact the A's, Indians, and Angels are separated by .0027, with Hit List Factors (the unpublished average of those four winning percentages) of .5660, .5656, and .5633, respectively. That's about 1/3 of a win this far into the season; another run here or there would have likely jumbled those rankings.
http://futilityinfielder.com/blog/2005/08/kiss-my-pythagoras.shtml
Now, with regards to this week's rankings, I caught some flack from a few readers regarding the A's coming in at #3, rising a notch despite a 1-5 record. But the A's weren't the only high-ranked team to have a bad week. The White Sox had a much worse week, and those of the Angels and Braves, the two teams directly below the A's last week, were nothing to write home about. Here are the run totals of the four teams:
W-L RS RA
A's 1-5 17 24
Angels 3-4 30 27
Braves 2-4 33 36
White Sox 1-5 14 28
The A's, despite losing, at least did a relatively good job of preventing runs, which tends to have a positive effect on those Pythagorean calculations. The Angels actually allowed fewer runs per game, and they've got a better raw run differential this year than the A's, but once all of the adjustments are thrown in, the A's still come out ahead this week.
But not by much. In fact the A's, Indians, and Angels are separated by .0027, with Hit List Factors (the unpublished average of those four winning percentages) of .5660, .5656, and .5633, respectively. That's about 1/3 of a win this far into the season; another run here or there would have likely jumbled those rankings.
http://futilityinfielder.com/blog/2005/08/kiss-my-pythagoras.shtml
Wow. The A's did a good job of preventing runs while losing a home series to a team coming in on a 18-game losing streak and getting swept at home by a sub-.500 club.
Strike up the band.
Strike up the band.
# posted by 
: 8/24/2005 01:34:00 PM
: 8/24/2005 01:34:00 PM
I'll stick to using the W - L equations to evaluate how the teams are doing....
# posted by : 8/24/2005 01:59:00 PM
: 8/24/2005 01:59:00 PM
No the Cy Young does not belong to the pitcher with the most wins. Yet the numbers in the run column on the scoreboard at the end of the day determine whether or not one is in Hawaii or playing baseball in October.
Yes, one's record clearly indicates how hot a team is. The A's in the past week lost a series to Kansas City {Kansas City for god sake!!! maybe the worst team in baseball in the 21st century right now}, while the Angels split a series against the defending champions.
To seriously claim the A's are a stronger team than the Angels currently is utterly absolutely absurd.
How can one just use runs scored and allowed without factoring in the team they played to measure the strength of the team is ludicrous, if the BCS used this system, well I don't need to go there...
Yes, one's record clearly indicates how hot a team is. The A's in the past week lost a series to Kansas City {Kansas City for god sake!!! maybe the worst team in baseball in the 21st century right now}, while the Angels split a series against the defending champions.
To seriously claim the A's are a stronger team than the Angels currently is utterly absolutely absurd.
How can one just use runs scored and allowed without factoring in the team they played to measure the strength of the team is ludicrous, if the BCS used this system, well I don't need to go there...
# posted by : 8/24/2005 04:04:00 PM
: 8/24/2005 04:04:00 PM
Adam, the "s" at the end of "weeks" is vital here. I guess I'm still waiting for an adequate explanation of how, since those arrows are assigned over one week, the A's get a shiny, happy green.
Adam is absolutely correct.
Repeat after me: The Hit List is based on cumulative year-to-date stats, not just on what happened last week.
Again: The Hit List is based on cumulative year-to-date stats, not just on what happened last week.
One lousy week wasn't enough to narrow the gap between the A's and the Angels. Yes, the Angels have a better raw run differential. But once the run element, park, and quality of competition (EQA allowed, and opponents EQA) measures are taken into account, the A's come out ahead this week by a narrow margin. I'm tickled pink that you take the Hit List so seriously -- do ESPN's power rankings draw any comment? -- but some of you folks are missing the forest for the trees.
Repeat after me: The Hit List is based on cumulative year-to-date stats, not just on what happened last week.
Again: The Hit List is based on cumulative year-to-date stats, not just on what happened last week.
One lousy week wasn't enough to narrow the gap between the A's and the Angels. Yes, the Angels have a better raw run differential. But once the run element, park, and quality of competition (EQA allowed, and opponents EQA) measures are taken into account, the A's come out ahead this week by a narrow margin. I'm tickled pink that you take the Hit List so seriously -- do ESPN's power rankings draw any comment? -- but some of you folks are missing the forest for the trees.
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