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Thursday, September 01, 2005

Pickoff Moves

Recent Cubs One-Hitters

Yesterday's one-hit shutout of the Cubs got me wondering how often the Cubs have been one-hit at hitter-friendly Wrigley. In the last decade, it's a feat that's been accomplished only five times, including last night. Here's the other four:

Update 2: In the obscure and useless category, while this is bad, the Padres have been no-hit or one-hit in their own park six times in the last decade, taking the lead for the majors in this particular distinction. The two no-hitters they took in their own park were in 2001, if you can believe it, one on May 21, which they lost 7-0 to the Marlins, and the second September 3, which they lost 4-0 to the Cards. As the 2001 Padres would end the season 79-83, it makes you wonder: that year the division had a fully functional Jason Schmidt and Barry Bonds in San Francisco, and the dynamic duo of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in Arizona. Minus those three players in the division, would the Padres have gotten to breakeven? And would that team be a match for the current squad? There's a question for some of the saber boys with their saber toys.

As always, thanks to Retrosheet for their invaluable help.

Padres DFA Quantrill

The San Diego Padres have DFA'd Paul Quantrill, the former Dodger and Yankee. He is replaced on the roster by Sean Burroughs.

Bryan Smith On AFL Pitching

Normally I send these out with the Minor League Scorebooks, but today I'll drop it here for no good reason. Bryan Smith of Baseball Analysts reviews AFL pitching, and several pitchers germane to this blog come up:
1. Chad Billingsley - RHP/SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

Pretty much a different pitcher since I underrated him in my midseason prospect list. Billingsley supporters are quick to point out that what appeared to be early season struggles were in fact numbers masked by a few bad starts against Delmon Young's team, and what was then a high BABIP. However, the BABIP ship has been righted, as his current number is right around .280. This is due to an August in which Billingsley has excelled, while also having a BABIP under .150. In those 33 innings, he's allowed just 14 hits, while 'only' striking out 31 batters. However, while some of this success is surely do to luck, it's also important to note his control problems are starting to go away, with just eight free passes issued in the month of August. I'm worried that the AFL will add to a workload that is nearing uncomfortable levels, and should push him to 180 innings over seven months. While many of the minors best pitching prospects are graduating to the minors, Billingsley has an argument for being the best left under the surface. He'll look to continue that argument this winter, where he will need his newfound control to not find himself in trouble.

3. Jered Weaver - RHP/SP - Los Angeles Angels

I'm a bit wary of this decision, not because of Jered's inning count, but rather the environment. Weaver is among the minors most prominent flyball pitchers, and unless the winter will be spent adding a cutter, he could serve quite a few home runs in Arizona. However, this is a player that needs to be challenged, and also needs to give Los Angeles an idea of what his timetable should look like. Weaver's pitchability is matched by few in the minors, and that plus his great control could make up for the flyball tendencies. While we all know that Jered can strike hitters out, the AFL will be a good test to see how he deals with adversity, and if he can limit damage despite being HR-prone.

4. Edwin Jackson - RHP/SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

Like Billingsley, I'm not sure I agree with the decision to send Jackson to the AFL. Has any player in this system faced more adversity than Jackson this year, who went from thinking he's have a rotation spot, to being a month away, to not getting any AAA hitters out, to being demoted to AA, to getting a chance in LA. Jackson has started to right the ship in Jacksonville, however, the environment is far more friendly for pitchers there than in Arizona. Edwin must continue to grow and keep using the advice and mechanical changes he has received in Jacksonville. He is something of a conundrum in the Los Angeles system, but a good AFL might be enough to convince the Dodgers to plan on him for yet another offseason.

5. Greg Miller - LHP - Los Angeles Dodgers

Well, this decision makes sense. While Billingsley and Jackson will both be carrying high workloads going into the AFL, it will be Miller who is in need of innings. He has not pitched very much since returning from injury, getting a Curt Schilling-like glimpse of the life of a reliever. Miller once had the stuff to succeed in either role, and the AFL will go a long way in determining which role that should be. Expect the Dodgers to inform Miller's manager that while Billingsley and Jackson need to be handled delicately, Miller should be thrown into the fire. At a certain point, it's time for the Dodgers to take off their gloves, and see what this kid is made of.

Meta: Thank Yous

I've had a few comments lately thanking me for the nightly Minor League Scorebook series of posts, including from Bryan Smith who called it "fantastic". Yesterday, Jon Burke -- who I've seen in my referrers as coming from one of the many blog redistribution services out there -- wrote to let me know that he's been assigned to do a blog roundup post on a non-pornographic blog with a pornographic-sounding name, The Daily BJ. He says nice things about me, which, as somebody-or-other once put it (Oscar Wilde?), I can live for a week on a good compliment. Thank you both.

Update: And thanks back to Jon for the nice words delivered in today's piece. Jon's still the best Dodgers blogger on the planet; I just tape together the loose ends.


Comments:
Rob, I am obscenely late with my thanks for the minor league scorebooks. Great stuff and please, if you can, keep them comin'.
 
Outside of the comments, they're almost completely automated. If I don't have time to look at the games and comment, I can just shove them out the door in a couple minutes, though normally I like to read the recaps to see if anything special has happened.
 
well, figuring out how to set it up and automate them is still very awesome and much appreciated, man. thanks.

-vishal
 
Tape loose ends -> OK.
Gatber (or bind) loose threads -> OK

But, "tape together loose threads"? Oh my, Rob!! :)
 
"Gatber"? What is this "gatber"?

:-)
 

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