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Thursday, September 29, 2005

Reversion

Poor Mike Carminati: having retracted his earlier discussions about Billy Beane jumping the shark, the A's had to go and lose the division. I guess that's the penalty for making ballsy if incorrect predictions -- I'd hate to think what people might say about me if I were to make such bold -- and happily wrong -- predictions.

Comments:
I agree with Al. This was a transitional year for the A's, and to me it looks like Harden could have a Cy Young-ish season next year.

I'm proud of the Angels, but I also wonder whether we've seen peak years from Colon and Lackey. If the Angels starters worked this well last year, maybe things would be different.

About Chavez . . . from what I've read at another forum, one "key problem" with the Oakland organization is their emphasis on linear-style dynamics in the minor league system, which has caused them problems in developing high-average, power hitters.

But I think the same is true with the Angels and Mickey Hatcher. Mickey definitely used a linear-style movement (his and Erstad's constant tinkering of swing reflects this), where guys like Finley are definitely rotational. So, if guys like Finley struggle, guys like Mickey can't rehab their swing. I liked him as a Dodgers, but he doesn't even like to use video tape! Sigh.
 
I agree with you on Colon, but he's aging, though not so much that I expect a huge regression next year. Lackey might get some regression next year, but I think a light's come on for him. He's been consistently good over the whole season.

It's hard to imagine Harden getting much better, but I suppose it's possible. The big thing for him, obviously, is health, and the A's have had problems with their starters in that regard.
 
I think Harden's frame is too slight for him to rely on his splitter as an out pitch. I wouldn't be surprised if he focused on becoming a groundball pitcher than a strikeout guy.

He scares me because his circle change has exceptional tailing movement, and his command of it has vastly improved. If you can locate that on both sides of the plate, almost no right handed hitter can pull you. That in turn lets you throw more strikes, which sets up an advantage in counts. This guy could be unhittable.

No reason why he doesn't become the Jason Schmidt of the AL. In fact, in the AL West, he should.
 

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