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Monday, September 05, 2005 |
Well, Maybe They Can Stay Out Of Last Place: Giants 3, Dodgers 1
Blown chances, a roster missing Choi (which got highlighted by his being pulled in as a pinch hitter in the ninth), and the Dodgers' inability to get a win off the suddenly hot Giants all underscore the pure wretchedness the Dodgers have exhibited lately, getting swept in Colorado by the worst team in the division. With the plummeting Diamondbacks now only a half game away in the standings, the big question for the Dodgers is: will this team be able to finish third? Let's say the Dodgers go 14-15, a game under .500, over the balance of their season. They were able to go .500 in August, so that's a good place to start. If that's the case, they end up at a 75-87 season, a .462 winning percentage.
But let's look a little more closely at this. Two years ago, I called the Dodgers remaining series to within a game before August. At the risk of hubris, here's how I see the remaining season breaking down. The Dodgers start at 61-76 as of right now.
- Split the remaining two with the Giants, who, despite their general lousiness and the lousiness of the NL West, are on a roll. 1-1, 62-77.
- Go 2-1 against the Padres at home, because, hey, the Dodgers have occaisional bursts of competence. 64-78.
- The series against Colorado will be retribution for the road sweep. 67-78
- The Giants are a lousy team, just like the Dodgers; they won't stay hot very long, and knowing Sabean and his poorhouse mentality, the Bonds totem won't come off the DL so long as the insurance is carrying his paycheck. Ipso facto, a 2-2 split, and an 69-80 record. However: the Dodgers' current elimination number is 19. Figuring the Padres and the Dodgers are both playing more-or-less .500 ball lately (the Pads were 14-12 in August), let's divide that by two -- ten games -- and you ought to have a good idea of where they'll be eliminated. Meaning, they'll probably go into their final death throes right here, while the Padres play the Nats, though the Nats have some spunk and may prolong the process. Personally, I'm hoping the Padres go on a tear this month so the Dodgers can start the necessary purges as soon as humanly possible.
- Arizona: this one's a crapshoot, but to make the numbers come out, I give them a 1-2 series loss, so we're at 70-82.
- If the Dodgers can't go 3-1 against the Pirates, in lieu of a Jose Offerman bobblehead giveaway, the fans should be allowed to run onto the field and tar and feather Jim Tracy. That would take us to 73-83.
- Arizona at home: 2-1 for a season record of 75-84, but the Dodgers have had trouble with the Snakes in Chavez Ravine lately. Still, they're minus Glaus, Ortiz has been both injured and horribly ineffective this year, and they have a historically bad bullpen.
- For the math to work out, the Dodgers have to completely roll over on the Pads and give up three straight losses in San Diego. These days, I know they can do it. 75-87.
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