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Monday, November 14, 2005

Pickoff Moves

Epstein Offered Dodgers GM Job

According to Tony Jackson in the Daily News, the Dodgers have offered Theo Epstein the GM job, along with an equity stake, similar to the deal that Billy Beane enjoys in Oakland.
Most of those close to Epstein believe he will take some time away from the game, a belief that seems to fit perfectly with widespread reports he is a candidate to take over as team president and possibly GM in Washington once the pending sale of the Nationals is complete. Officials from Major League Baseball, which currently owns that club, have yet to select from among several groups vying to buy the Nationals.
He'd be a fool to take the job, seeing as how Frank hires and fires at the drop of a hat -- and he'll drop the hat.

Another Day, Another Shakedown: Twins To Vegas Rumors

Via BTF, a Minneapolis-St. Paul Star-Tribune story about the Twins possibly relocating to Las Vegas.
"The real population base you can draw from is more like 800,000 to a million people," [Las Vegas 51's General Manager Don] Logan said. "That's not enough to sustain 81 games of a major league season."
For now, Vegas is a threat, and only that.

AFL All-Stars Named

MILB.com has named the AFL All Stars. For the Angels, the usual suspects of Kendry Morales (1B), Howie Kendrick (2B), and Brandon Wood (SS) made the cut. Seven Phoenix players made the list, including Dodger Matt Kemp (OF).

Comments:
If Epstein has an ownership stake, it will either be more difficult or costly to fire him. I'm not saying that Theo will accept or that the Dodgers have even made him an offer, but I have no doubt that an equity position would be part of any deal--if it came to pass.
 
Any interesting observations in Joe Sheehan's Baseball Prospectus column about the AFL? Or interesting observations in Jon Weisman's Baseball Prospectus column about the Dodgers & Angels?
 
For some reason I thought both of those were a little old (Friday)... the AFL didn't add much, really, Sheehan just saying he thought -- as have many -- that Brandon Wood will slide to third base because of his height. Not even a mention for Howie Kendrick or Kendry Morales.

If you want discussion of Jon's piece last Friday in BPro, why not go over there?
 
Rich -- what does ownership mean when all you have is a mortgage payment?
 
Rich -- what does ownership mean when all you have is a mortgage payment?

A highly leveraged ownership position can be great as long as you haven't signed any personal guarantees on the loans (which Theo obviously hasn't done or would be asked to do in the future).

To wit, if the Dodgers are, say, worth $400M (just for illustration's sake) and the capital structure is such that it's financed with $350M in debt and $50M in equity, a $100M increase in the market value of the team from $400M to $500M would mean that the owner's stake would rise from $50M to $150M, a tripling in value.

As such, a 5% ownership position would grow from $2.5M to $7.5M.
 
...but it's all a moot point cuz it ain't happenin'.
 

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