Tuesday, December 20, 2005 |
Joe Sheehan On The Nomah Acquisition
In the infield, placeholder and soon-to-be-35-year-old Bill Mueller will man the hot corner through next year, Izturis and his flaky bat having been demoted to the status of Expensive Bench Player. But the most recent contract is the most curious one, giving the boot to Hee Seop Choi in favor of shambling injury mound Nomar Garciaparra (who hasn't hit like an All Star or appeared in more than 100 games in over two years), a topic Joe Sheehan addresses today:
So what you’re left with is a past-prime ex-superstar who has been removed from the environment where he’s had the most success, and is now being asked to do on-the-job training at a new position in a difficult hitters’ park with, basically, the rest of his career on the line. Were Garciaparra being asked to play a position with low expectations for production, his chance to be worth the money would be greater. However, his reluctance to play second base, and the Dodgers’ investments elsewhere in the infield, mean that Garciaparra is slated to play first base at this time. That’s a lot to ask of a guy who posted a .263 EqA in 62 games last season.This is a point that Jon made earlier this month. Nomar's had two years to get his game together with the Cubs; the fact that he hasn't apparently doesn't weigh much with Colletti. Bringing in a Big Name may help public relations with the fans, but if he goes down, the Dodgers will have just another stiff on the roster.It’s hard to see how the Dodgers have even upgraded the position. It’s established by now that the baseball industry simply doesn’t like Hee Seop Choi, who has been defined by what he cannot do rather than what he can by two organizations, and who hasn’t been given a fair shake outside of a half-season in Florida in 2004. Even in a difficult 2005 season, however, Choi put up a line of .253/.336/.453, good for a .274 EqA in Dodger Stadium. At worst an average defensive first baseman, and heading into his age-27 season, it seems certain that he would be a better choice than Garciaparra in 2005.
Let’s make this clear: the Dodgers are replacing Choi with a player Choi out-hit last season (and posted comparable numbers to in 2004), a player who’s likely going to be inferior defensively, who will cost more money, and carry a greater risk of injury and decline. They’re getting a more famous person in the deal, one whose aggressive approach at the plate may play better than Choi’s disciplined one, but whose edges are all stylistic.
Jose Cruz, Jr., 2005: .251/.366/.478
Jayson Werth, 2004: .262/.338/.486
Aside from the fact that Werth is maybe more injury prone, I don't see how they're that different. More: considering the fact that Cruz, Jr. is five years older and, judging by his work with the Diamondbacks and Red Sox, in a profound decline, it's pretty close to a wash.
You don't sign a guy to a $6M contract and expect him to wander around the diamond defensively, unless that's what he's known for. Also, the chances of Nomar staying healthy on an NL team is near zero unless he's playing first or maybe left.
Oh yeah? His whole starting outfield was an injury waiting to happen
My point exactly about the 2006 team. Lofton is old, Drew is fragile, and between Cruz and Werth you have either an injury risk or a player of dubious effectiveness.
Now, unless I've missed a trade, the 5th outfielder is Werth, not Repko. That's a big difference. The 6th is Repko, not AAA.
No, Werth is fourth on the depth chart, a lock to get 250-300 AB and maybe more. To call him a fifth outfielder, you have to believe Cruz is going to be effective enough over the course of a season to justify that number or more AB's, and I just don't see it based on his recent seasons. He didn't even hit well in Fenway, f'r chrissakes! I would almost call Werth a 3.5th outfielder at that point -- a platoon player. You would also have to believe there's someone else ahead of him on the depth chart -- who?
Though what's the payroll/draft picks lost situationo?
Dodgers can't lose their first-rounder because of their rotten finish (top half of draft can never lose a first-round pick). I believe the Braves got a sandwich pick for the Dodgers signing Furcal.
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