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Friday, February 10, 2006

Pickoff Moves, Bedtime Edition

The Sudden, Startling Absence Of Angels Prospects

Oh, sure, Huston Street getting the Rookie of the Year award in a year when a lot of Angels fans thought it would go to Dallas McPherson wasn't a terrible problem; McPherson went down half the year with a hip problem, and Street pitched his way to the top of the heap in a fairly uninspiring year for rookie players*, the debut of still-green Felix Hernandez notwithstanding. But... I sense a disturbance in the force. After years of reflexive huzzahs coming out of Baseball America for Angels prospects, of a sudden, they simply don't exist in some of the preseason roundups. For instance, Nate Silver's latest in Baseball Prospectus, which mentions Jeff Mathis only in passing, and then only in a table among a number of other catching prospects. That table includes a set of scores that Silver uses to rank prospects, and Rob Deer-behind-the-dish Mike Napoli uncomfortably trails only a couple points back of him.

Maybe it's because I expect less from ESPN that I read into this Gary Gillette column that the only two impact rookies in the Angels system -- Brandon Wood and Erick Aybar -- won't likely make the team. Hullo, what about McPherson finally getting a full year of playing time, or room being cleared for Kotchman? Well, of course: they make the second page ($$$), but it's weird to see high-profile guys like Kendrick and Wood pushed into the "also-ran" category, even if it's because of essentially fantasy considerations.


* I originally said this was Bobby Crosby, but I confused the 2004 and 2005 RoY winners. Oops.

New Stuff At BPro: Better THR's, More PECOTA Graphs

In case you missed it -- Will Carroll has (or will have) improved team health reports, the biggest of which is that Carroll will no longer be writing the reports all by himself; he's now got a team of three helpers, one for each division*league (i.e., one guy on the Wests, one guy on the Centrals, and one guy on the Easts). He'll need it, considering the backend data fueling his reports has been completely revamped with an emphasis on precision.

Vlad's Stars N Scrubs graph

Vlad Guerrero's Stars And Scrubs Chart

But maybe the most interesting new BPro stuff came off a recommendation by Jay Jaffe, namely the radically improved PECOTA cards. One thing I've always had a problem with is trying to get a read on the voluminous numbers peppering the player cards, and the new graphs help immensely. Not only do we get a VORP-denominated career path analysis that graphically shows us the possibilities for his future performance, not only do we get a five-year attrition/drop rate graph, but the beauty you see to your right, the Stars and Scrubs chart. This tells you in an easy-to-comprehend format what a player's future could look like, and the probabilities of the various outcomes. Good stuff, and reason enough to get a Baseball Prospectus subscription.

Bryan Smith Exiles Jim Hendry From The Ranks Of Great GMs

Bryan Smith unloads on former genius, Jim Hendry:
I'm no longer willing to unequivocally say he's one of the game's best GMs. It has been awhile -- in fact, since my article was written following the Nomar trade -- that we have seen the creative version of Jim Hendry at the helm. As the Cubs report to Spring Training in about a week, expectations are the lowest they have been since 2002. I've always been the first person to blame Dusty Baker, but this time, Hendry needs to prove to me that I'm pointing my finger at the right scapegoat.
I'm not sure the Cubs had much choice for their lousy stand-pat offseason, though. Using the small-sample-size of the outfield as a microscope for the kind of troubles they've had, they shot their wad on Corey Patterson, and after him there was Matt Murton and maybe Felix Pie, if anyone could really ever settle on a value for him. Hendry couldn't execute a lot of trades based on young farm prospects, and the free agent market was both overpriced and underwhelming.

But such stuff comes off as mere excusifying on the North Side, especially after White Sox fans got a full dose of winning last postseason. I myself am not that impressed with Hendry's handiwork anymore, either, after witnessing the prestidigitation in Boston that resulted in a frontline starter in Josh Beckett transliterating from Florida. It's all too easy to imagine the Cubs to be a third or fourth place team this year, as they perhaps fade behind -- gasp! -- the Brewers, who should be an overall more interesting team. As with the Marlins, it may be time to blow this club up and start over. Unfortunately, Hendry may not have that kind of latitude, and he may not have the requisite courage, either.


Comments:
Rob: '05 ROY = H. Street
 
Those BP graphs are not friendly to the color-blind.
 
At the bottom of the BP article, it says he'll do infielders in a later column.
 
Just to clarify: while I did publicize the release of the new and improved PECOTA cards, I can't take responsibility for the improvements themselves, except for the placeholder graphic in the headshot field. Still, glad to hear that you like the improvements and thanks as always for the link.
 
Jay -- I clarified the language in the post above. Thanks for the words.
 

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