Proceeds from the ads below will be donated to the
Bob Wuesthoff scholarship fund.
Tuesday, March 28, 2006 |
The Crank Uses EWSR To Predict The AL West
In line with the Rev's Month of Predictionary blogging, let me introduce you to the Baseball Crank's AL West predictions, based on Established Win Share Levels. But before I get to his 2006 predictions, let's take a brief look at his track record with the AL West. Last year, he correctly spotted the Angels as division winners, and of the A's, he wrote
My gut tells me the A's will be a force to be reckoned with this season. But EWSL is much more sober about the rebuilding job the team needs to suffer through before the A's can be considered a bankable contender rather than a maybe-if-everything-breaks-right longshot. Do the math and you'll see that the bulk of the problem is that Oakland has handed over 3/5 of the starting rotation to guys with no major league track record of success.Indeed, that huge injection of youth was the dealbreaker for the A's, who struggled in the early going. In the interests of fairness, his first pass at this -- in 2004 -- showed the weakness of his methodology, by picking a very old Mariners team to win the division, followed by the Angels. Of course, he admitted immediately that the M's were begging for trouble with their roster full o' grandpas, and sure enough, the M's finished last with a 63-93 record.
This year, the Crank has the division going down in about the same order I did over at the Analysts (A's-Angels-Rangers-Mariners), but what surprised me is just how close the race really is at the top. Even the Crank isn't entirely sold on the idea that the A's will hoist the division pennant in their park come October:
I'm not sure I see Oakland beating the Angels this year, but this is definitely a team that will make the race neck-and-neck, at least. Much will depend on the health of Milton Bradley and Frank Thomas and the sophomore progress of Haren, Blanton, Street, Nick Swisher and Dan Johnson.I completely agree. What I see as difference makers for both the A's and Angels:
- Frank Thomas's health. The Crank shows him coming up with a scanty 9 EWSL; in reality, he could easily double that, provided he doesn't pull the Lot's wife trick in midseason.
- Bobby Crosby's health, and that of Milton Bradley. Both of those guys are much more critical, Crosby especially; I really think Crosby is a far better player than we've seen so far, mainly because he's been so hobbled by injury. Bradley, on the other hand, is simply fragile, and like Darin Erstad, tends to injure himself.
- Roster flexibility. The Angels have as many as four DH's, real or potential -- Anderson, Erstad, Salmon, and Morales -- and really, no place to put them all. This will take some creative fudging from Mike Scioscia to make it work. Luckily, Salmon is actually playing the field acceptably; every step he takes in the outfield is another game Garret Anderson doesn't have to play. I smell a lefty-righty platoon about to emerge...
- The unknown contributions of Angels rookies and sophomores. Here I'm less concerned about Casey Kotchman -- who continues to rake in spring training -- than I am about Dallas McPherson, who seems to have come down with a raft of weird (dermatitis?) and not-so-weird (oblique pull) injuries. McPherson's contributions are ultimately necessary if this team is going to pass the A's; nice as Figgy's batting average is, he still isn't really the kind of power guy you need on the corner.
I should also mention under this heading the contributions of Ervin Santana. Santana functioned as an emergency fifth starter last year, plucked as he was from AA Arkansas in mid-season. There are real reasons to believe he will improve and become more consistent; but there are also reasons to think he will not (mainly that this was an established pattern from his lower levels of play).
Comments:
So, you think that the Angels' hitting depth is a negative? The way I see it, Erstad's and GA's injuries will be resolved in a matter of weeks, Salmon can be useful playing just a few times a week while he gets into shape, and Morales can learn stuff at AAA. I know you can be more pessimistic that I am, but when has depth ever been a negative?
Maybe I misexpressed that. The real problem is that the Angels have too many DH's and not enough corner outfielders. If you look at the Angels depth chart, you see Juan Rivera penciled in to all three outfield positions, with only the regular starters ahead of him. That's a problem if, as I expect, more than one of the trio goes down for an extended period of time.
Newer› ‹Older
 |
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.