6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

The next generation of players, that is. In full bullet-point form you've come to know and love around here --

How RC/27 Overrates Brandon Wood

Clay Davenport thinks Brandon Wood might be overrated, but it's nothing personal, not even, really, against Brandon or the Angels. He sees it as a flaw in Pete Palmer's linear weights calculations. Based on the Keith Woolner article in the back of Baseball Prospectus 2006 about win expectancies, Clay noticed that suddenly the value of an out was changing depending on whether you were in a low run or a high run environment. But wait! What if the value of an out is constant?

If the value of an out is roughly constant, then it means, quite simply, that every statistical system that uses normalized league values is wrong. I mean EqA, I mean NOPS, I mean PRO+, I mean the updated linear weights in the Baseball Encyclopedia, I mean adjusted RC/27. Every single one of them, as part of the normalization process, is moving the value of the outs along with the values of everything else. When they adjust Honus Wagner’s 1908 season, they adjust the value of everything, including the outs, upwards--which means that the outs end up being counted too strongly and that his performance is being underrated. The opposite is true of players from hitter’s leagues, like Hack Wilson in 1930, or Hugh Duffy in 1894, or even Brandon Wood from the 2005 California League -- these systems will all systematically overrate these performances.

Unless I'm misunderstanding what he's saying here, it will also affect VORP and the usual suspects at BPro. Read the whole thing, which is a free article this time (I think); it's well worth it.

No Waste Management: Smart Prep Pitcher Drafts

One of the tenets held dear by so many who misread Moneyball into a complete book on how to run a baseball club is the idea that using a high draft pick on a high school pitcher is a mistake. For starters, the A's took three prep pitchers in the first three rounds (three of their first five picks), thus disabusing their followers of that particular chestnut. Kevin Goldstein likes a couple of Eddie Bane's recent picks that contradict Michael Lewis's received wisdom:

The Teenage Tommy John Survivor
Nick Adenhart, rhp, Angels
Drafted: 2004, 14th round
Velocity: Average-to-plus, and entering second year out of surgery
Second Pitch: Curveball, changeup
2005 Debut: 3.24 ERA in 50 innings with 59/24 K/BB ratio
The Good: I detailed Adenhart's entry to pro ball in my American League West State of the System Report, but once again, let's give props to Scouting Director Eddie Bane for his creativity. He got one of the best prep pitchers in the 2004 draft for $710,000. Not yet 100% back from 2004 Tommy John surgery, Adenhart showed good command of three-pitches, and tossed six innings without allowing an earned run in his final start of the season after a promotion to the Pioneer League.
The Bad: He's 19 and already has a major injury history, which will remain in the back of every scout's mind for years to come. Lefthanders hit him hard, and he struggled with men on base.
The Immediate Future: Adenhart was impressive in camp, with his stuff taking another small step forward as he's now almost two years removed from going under the knife. He'll pitch for Low Class A Cedar Rapids.

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The Sleeper
Tommy Mendoza, rhp, Angels
Drafted: 2005, fourth round
Velocity: Average-to-plus
Second Pitch: Plus curve, and three other decent pitches
2005 Debut: 1.30 ERA in 62 innings with 68/13 K/BB ratio
The Good: Mendoza surprised team officials with both his stuff and his maturity in his pro debut. When injuries created the need for a late-season arm at High Class A Rancho Cucamonga, Mendoza was the surprise selection, and he pitched seven shutout innings in an emergency start, striking out nine while facing hitters primarily 3-to-5 years older.
The Bad: Right now, it's hard to find any flaw in Mendoza's game, other than the usual ones assigned to young arms: the need for consistency and health.
The Immediate Future: Mendoza will join Adenhart in the Cedar Rapids rotation.

Chrysalis

Jim Callis at Baseball America answers the question, Which prospects are going to have a breakout year?

When I combed through the current Top 100 list looking for candidates, I found eight guys who piqued my interest—none of whom played above Class A in 2005.

It won't be a huge jump, but I think Diamondbacks outfielder Carlos Gonzales (No. 32 on this year's list) will be in the top 10 next year. He's going to be a .300-hitting, 30-homer right fielder with a strong arm, and he's going to put up monster numbers in the high Class A California League in 2006.

My other breakout candidates, all from the bottom half of the Top 100: Dodgers lefthander Scott Elbert (No. 55) and third baseman Blake DeWitt (No. 82), Reds outfielder Jay Bruce (No. 76), Cubs lefty Mark Pawelek (No. 85), Angels righty Nick Adenhart (No. 90), Orioles outfielder Nolan Reimold (No. 99) and Twins righty Anthony Swarzak (No. 100).

As a bonus, I'll give you two more guys I like who just missed the Top 100 cut. Shortstop Reid Brignac and righty Wade Davis, both Devil Rays, are going to make bigger names for themselves in 2006.

Callis also says that eight of the projected top fifty draftees this June will have Scott Boras representation, including USC's Ian Kennedy (projected at #5 overall, a pick currently owned by the Mariners).