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Monday, June 05, 2006 |
Don't Write Napoli Into Your All-Star Ballot Just Yet
Mike Napoli has thrilled Angels fans with his performance so far, doing about as well as you can expect a rookie to do. He's among the top catchers in the league in offensive rate production, though as of this morning, second to Gerald Laird; he's hitting for average and power, and also walking a ton, showing the kind of excellent plate discipline the Angels aren't famous for.
Well, here's my raincloud for the "Mike Napoli For The All-Star Game Write-In Campaign": a .441 BABIP, the highest for any AL catcher with more than 50 at bats. Furthermore, only 19.4% of his hits are going for line drives, and his immediate company there are struggling guys like Jason Varitek and the not-so-struggling Kenji Johjima; in any event, he's outclassed in LD% by Jose Molina (20.8%), whose .233 BABIP tells you Jose's been unnaturally unlucky on batted balls in play. The short version is, no, Napoli won't be able to keep this up, or he shouldn't; the question is, when does the run end?
Comments:
Surely having a high BABIP is good no? I don't see why you're highlighting this as bad, doesn't it just mean when Naps hits it he hits it where the fielders aren't?
BABIP = This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). The exact formula we use is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR) This is similar to DER, but from the batter's perspective.
BABIP = This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). The exact formula we use is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR) This is similar to DER, but from the batter's perspective.
# posted by 
: 6/05/2006 01:35:00 PM
: 6/05/2006 01:35:00 PM
Usually it's the case where BABIP > Avg. is a leading indicator of regression to the mean and/or luck.
So, we shouldn't vote for Napoli because he has been "lucky" so far? How about we vote for him because he has done a terrific job so far and who cares about luck? The All Star Game is more about performance and popularity than anything abstract, and Napoli has certainly had the performance so far.
My point is that we haven't likely seen his true level of ability, which is almost certainly lower than what he's presented thus far. Also, Napoli is a league average defender (100 Rate2). I'm not saying we shouldn't applaud what he's done, but his offensive production amounts to a bubble; it will pop by and by.
Not necessarily, but if a lot of batted balls are turning into hits over the nominal average, it's pretty certain that you're looking at a regression to the mean down the line.
I don't think anyone has real expectations that Napoli will keep this up. Finally, a guy that you like is on the Angels (high OBP, good power) and you are still are predicting doom and gloom. And anyone can predict disaster for a rookie with just 50 ML at bats, so I will go on record now as predicting that Napoli will be the team's starting catcher for the rest of the season (and not because they have no other options, but because he will have performed that well).
I would assume that the BABIP of some players improves over time as they adjust to a new level and/or new league. Is there an effective, consistent method to measure a player's capacity for BABIP improvement?
# posted by : 6/05/2006 02:48:00 PM
: 6/05/2006 02:48:00 PM
Josh, nobody's predicting gloom and doom, just that he's very likely playing over his head at the moment. Maybe he's not, and if so, hurray, but I was thinking about yesterday's post while walking the dogs last night and the thought occurred to me to check his BABIP. Sure enough.
Rev -- I have no idea. But Josh's point about small sample sizes surely applies.
Rev -- I have no idea. But Josh's point about small sample sizes surely applies.
And still no caveat for small sample sizes!
What's to say his LD% doesn't increase as his BA/BIP decreases? The two are not perfectly correlated. You've already pointed out in a past post that JD Drew has managed to thwart your assumptions year in and year out, so I don't know that you want to pin your pessimism to that star.
Moreover, if Napoli maintains his HR/F and walk rates, who cares if we see a modest decline in BA and OBP? Despite a lower BA/BIP at Arkansas, he was still a league leader in HRs, RBIs and runs scored. Do those not matter anymore?
What's to say his LD% doesn't increase as his BA/BIP decreases? The two are not perfectly correlated. You've already pointed out in a past post that JD Drew has managed to thwart your assumptions year in and year out, so I don't know that you want to pin your pessimism to that star.
Moreover, if Napoli maintains his HR/F and walk rates, who cares if we see a modest decline in BA and OBP? Despite a lower BA/BIP at Arkansas, he was still a league leader in HRs, RBIs and runs scored. Do those not matter anymore?
# posted by : 6/05/2006 03:57:00 PM
: 6/05/2006 03:57:00 PM
No, but the perennial issue with Mike Scioscia-directed offenses is that they're predicated on batting average. For a Three True Outcomes guy, Napoli in the show has been way outhitting his track record down in Arkansas, the only decent sample we have. The real worry is that he turns into a pumpkin on those non-homerun events. We have evidence, and lots of it, that this is a likely outcome, though as with all young players, large changes are possible. And by the way, I did mention the issues of sample size in the comment directly above, Maxwell.
SO its june 29 now, and naps is still doing fantastic. he is leading the team in OBP, slugging, is in the top 3 for BA and has a good HR count. I played with this guy every season of my life since I was 12, believe me he is the real deal. he is freakishly talented, fearless, and the most humble person i have ever met. God forbid any injury, Mike Napoli is a name you will see in the hall of fame some day. I promis you that.
# posted by : 6/29/2006 12:19:00 PM
: 6/29/2006 12:19:00 PMNewer› ‹Older
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