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Thursday, June 01, 2006

Hey, Hey, We're The Rookies: Dodgers 7, Phillies 2

Back in 2004, Baseball America complained of Gavin Floyd, the team's number two pitching prospect, that his "velocity tailed off and his delivery was less consistent at the end of 2004", and his stamina, lower-half strength, and fastball command all needed improvement. After his third year in the majors, it looks like Floyd's regressing even further, his K/BB rate plummeting from a pedestrian 1.50 to this season's heartburn-inducing 1.11 — and that was before tonights game. His 6.62 ERA doesn't speak of a front-line starter, or even a number three, but a guy who's on his last rope on a team that imagines itself in contention.

It's hard to figure that one out, though; once again the Phils look like they'll finish in the middle of the NL East pack. This seems to be happening despite making what I thought was a relatively smart move, unloading the expensive, aging, and injury-prone Jim Thome for a far younger Aaron Rowand. And it's not like the Phils have needed much help in hitting the ball over the fence this year; they're tied for fourth, improbably, with Washington in homers. But their real problem is, apparently, a lack of situational hitting: they're second to last in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position, ahead only of the Reds.

The combined result was that Dodgers, who improbably lead the league in that stat, crushed Floyd and the Phils 7-2 at Dodger Stadium tonight. Matt Kemp got his first homer following another improbable event, a double by Derek Lowe, and one much more probable, a walk by Rafael Furcal. The thing dinked the left-field foul pole and stayed in the yard, so no fan intervention occurred; Kemp will get to keep the ball, but that wasn't the case for Russ Martin, whose homer went cleanly over the left centerfield fence. J.D. Drew got the last of the homers, with Matt Kemp getting into the act again by scoring one of his runs. The Dodgers' kids certainly haven't cooled down much — well, Ethier only went 1-4 today, I suppose that counts.

Of course it would figure that Derek Lowe would pitch a gem after I torched him earlier today as a dubious collector of paychecks from the Dodgers. Certainly, last year's endless stream of home runs would lead you in that direction, but I looked up this year and, Lowe and behold, he's third on the rotation by that metric with a relatively miserly five. Of course, that would put him on pace for 15 or so, guesstimating that the season's about a third over, but Tomko's helping to make up for it, on pace to have the kind of season that gets outfielders a $30M, three-year deal with an upper-division team, and even more with the Cubs.

The Dodgers evaded a ninth-inning chill that never arose to the level of an excuse to call in Eric Gagné when Tim Hamulack gave up a pair of runs. The threat was never really serious, and almost seemed like a toddler pooping his diapers. It happens, but in the grand scheme, it didn't matter.

Parting shot: I counted three plays on which David Bell looked utterly clueless on defense. How do you lose that many balls in the lights and still remain a major-leaguer? .265/.331/.401 and a $4.25M, one-year deal, so it's not like he's a huge liability or something... but, ugh, what an embarrassment. Incredibly, BPro's 115 Rate2 score says he's a well-above-average third baseman. Maybe it was a one-night aberration from playing in an unfamiliar ballpark.

Update: I knew the name Shane Victorino sounded familiar. He was a Rule 5 draftee by the Padres from the Dodgers in 2002; guess he didn't work out for the Pads, either, because he ended up getting returned, and then the Phils drafted him a second time in the 2004 Rule 5 draft. Crazy. And, yeah, he struck out against his old team. Heh.

Recap


Comments:
Not only did the Dodgers expose Victorino in the Rule 5 draft a second time, but the Dodgers didn't feel it was worth paying the $25,000 to take Victorino back when the Phillies sent him down to the minors last year. Surprisingly, Victorino actually had a great year in AAA last year and was named International League MVP, which opened the door for the Phillies to trade Jason Michaels to Cleveland and give Victorino the fourth outfielder spot.
 

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