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Sunday, September 03, 2006 |
The Coming Hard Choices Facing Bill Stoneman
Mike DiGiovanna's piece following yesterday's victory raise points I've made all year about the Angels, and so it's gratifying to see that someone in the Times actually putting a good bit of this in print; the problems are well known to readers of this space, and astute followers of the Angels. It's worthwhile answering these in some detail:
Is Figgins the long-term answer in the leadoff spot? Despite his slump-busting hit Saturday, his average fell to .258, his on-base percentage dropped to .328, he hits too many fly balls and strikes out too much.Whatever has happened to Chone Figgins? His OBP, not really impressive for a leadoff man, has dropped only 20 points from last year, while his hitting has all but vanished. There has been a school of thought that Figgins has value as a run-scoring demon on the basepaths, more durable than David Eckstein would have been (and so far the durability argument has been a good one). However, Figgins is on pace to score only 99 runs, 14 fewer than he scored last year, this despite the fact that he's actually drawing more walks this year (one walk per 10.6 plate appearances, versus one per 11.3 appearances last year). If the early season reports that Figgins was changing his approach to stress walks were correct, it's hurt his game overall.
Is Cabrera really a No. 3 hitter? The shortstop has had a nice season, batting .287 with 39 doubles, 86 runs and 65 runs batted in, but he doesn't seem suited for a spot usually reserved for a team's best all-around hitter.Cabrera's appearance in the three hole is more a side effect of the team lacking power on the infield corners rather than a statement about his offense in particular. And speaking of that...
Can the Angels go a third consecutive season with virtually no power from the corner infield spots? Third baseman Maicer Izturis is batting .297 and helped fuel the Angels' run in July but has only five home runs and has struggled defensively. Izturis and first baseman Robb Quinlan, who has been a force against left-handers, seem more suited to utility roles.There are two significant questions here. First is the disposition of Dallas McPherson, who was supposed to be a hot-hitting third baseman of the future after Troy Glaus left. His chronic injuries (in spring training, in the minors, and again recently when he missed four straight games due to an unknown situation) and his horrifyingly large strikeout totals have made his future with the team questionable at best; his inability to hit lefties make him suitable as a platoon-only player. The absence of quality third basemen on the free-agent market means Stoneman will likely swallow hard and try, try again, but the fact that McPherson has seen substantial time at first means the Angels are hedging their bets.
The other question is whither Casey Kotchman. There's significant reason to be optimistic about Kotchman; for starters, unlike the Angels' other hitters, he has solid OBP, knows how to work a walk, and had emerging power at the end of 2005. Unfortunately, mononucleosis has kept him off the field all year, and he won't be heard from again until spring training of next year. Players this young with this kind of plate discipline are generally pretty solid, and I'd be hard-pressed to recommend signing a free agent to replace him.
What can the Angels expect from Bartolo Colon? Will he recover from a torn rotator cuff and regain his 2005 Cy Young Award-winning, power-pitching form, or will he evolve into a crafty right-hander, forcing the Angels to pursue a starter this winter?Colon was injured in last year's ALDS, and it's unlikely he'll recover to his earlier form. I don't understand, though, why DiGiovanna here suggests that the Angels need to trade for another pitcher. Why would they want to? Joe Saunders, once he adjusts to the 162 game schedule, can probably handle the load. He might not give you the same results of the 2004 Bartolo Colon, but Colon won't be that good again and in fact can be counted on to decline further.
And, of course, the biggest question: Can this team contend for a World Series title without adding another middle-of-the-order slugger, the Angels' most glaring need for two years despite a trip to the AL championship series in October?Well, which one to get? The free agent market is awfully thin; the return of Jim Edmonds? At least the Angels won't be seduced into re-signing Tim Salmon, who's already said he intends to retire at the end of the season.
Comments:
I'd say that, in addition to changing his approach at the plate to increase walks, one of the other problems plaguing him is that he, counter to DiGiovanna's suggestion (which seems wholly agnostic of the actual stats), should be hitting more fly balls, not fewer.
Figgins' slump has directly tracked his propensity to hit more groundballs, and his slugging has taken a merciless hit as well. In 2004, Figgins only hit GBs at a 36.3% rate and maintained a .770 OPS with a late-Garret-like .419 SLG. Now Figgins hits GBs at a 44.6% rate, and his OPS has dived almost a full hundred points as a result.
The conventional wisdom is wrong on this one, and "astute followers" should recalibrate. Figgins should be swinging for the fences more, not less. Let him hack. More line drives, more flies...we'll see more doubles and triples as a result.
Figgins' slump has directly tracked his propensity to hit more groundballs, and his slugging has taken a merciless hit as well. In 2004, Figgins only hit GBs at a 36.3% rate and maintained a .770 OPS with a late-Garret-like .419 SLG. Now Figgins hits GBs at a 44.6% rate, and his OPS has dived almost a full hundred points as a result.
The conventional wisdom is wrong on this one, and "astute followers" should recalibrate. Figgins should be swinging for the fences more, not less. Let him hack. More line drives, more flies...we'll see more doubles and triples as a result.
# posted by 
: 9/03/2006 11:40:00 AM
: 9/03/2006 11:40:00 AM
In his blog, Tony Jackson lists several Dodger prospects who will be playing in the recently revived Hawaiian Winter League. Any idea which, if any, Angel prospects will be playing in the Hawaiian League?
# posted by : 9/03/2006 12:47:00 PM
: 9/03/2006 12:47:00 PM
Ugh:
"Howie Kendrick's future position might be determined by what position the Angels can fill via trade or free agency.
"He had always been a second baseman before playing 24 games at first base this year.
""We're not going to rule out his versatility if it means we're going to be a better overall team," Scioscia said."
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/sports/pros/abox/article_1264392.php
"Howie Kendrick's future position might be determined by what position the Angels can fill via trade or free agency.
"He had always been a second baseman before playing 24 games at first base this year.
""We're not going to rule out his versatility if it means we're going to be a better overall team," Scioscia said."
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/sports/pros/abox/article_1264392.php
# posted by : 9/03/2006 01:57:00 PM
: 9/03/2006 01:57:00 PM
In re Desmond Dechone Figgins: his drop in OBP correlates directly with his drop in batting average. We've know for quite some time that Figgins' OBP is almost entirely dependent on his batting average.
His career #s through 2005 were .292/.349/.400. If he were hitting .287 this year, his OBP would be .354 and everyone would be happy. Happy enough, anyways.
Yesterday's triple only served to highlight the fact that he rarely hits them anymore. He's hitting fewer doubles, too. Maybe there is something to the ground ball/fly ball thing with him.
The question is whether, at age 29, we can expect to see Figgins become a .290 hitter again, because if he can be, then the CF situation is resolved.
As for Cabrera, I also tend to think that the Angels don't really think of him as a #3 hitter, but they want both Figgins and Izturis at the top of the lineup, and Cabrera seems to do better hitting higher in the lineup that down at, say, #7. I suspect that unless Maicer Izturis and Figgins both remain in the everyday lineup next year, in addition to Cabrera, then we'll see O.C. back in the more appropriate #2 spot in 2007.
In my mind, 3B and the bullpen are the most serious and pressing concerns.
Though 1B remains a question mark, I am supremely confident that either Morales or Kotchman will prove to the the answer. I was sold on Kotchman even before spring training, and his superb performance in the spring only bolstered that feeling. One wonders how he could have done that while suffering from mono, if the illness was so severe as to prevent him from playing during the season. Then again, he was supposedly getting daily IV treatments and rest that's just not available during the regular season.
But anyway, I think Morales acquitted himself quite nicely, and I also believe that he was just about ready to pick it up when he found himself back at SLC. Given the necessary ABs to adjust, I think Morales can probably be a more than adequate 1B if Kotchman doesn't pan out: a bit more pop, if somewhat lacking in average and OBP.
The bullpen behind K-Rod and the overworked Shields (for now, I'll be optimistic and chalk up his recent struggles to overuse).
I found the intro to DiGiovanna's article rather mysterious: "There is a growing sentiment among the more rational and realistic followers of the Angels — yes, there are a few — that the team might be better off in the long run if it didn't make the playoffs this season."
Where, exactly, has Mike DiG found these "more rational and realistic" followers of the Angels? Could it be the posters on this blog and, perhaps, a certain faction of folks over at another place whose name I'm not sure if it's safe to mention around here?
I also found the juxtaposition of DiG's article and Tim Brown's column - L.A. A-Rod of Anaheim, anyone? - to be not just a happy coincidence. It would answer the Angels' 3B question for the next several years, and could also help to answer the MIF logjam.
His career #s through 2005 were .292/.349/.400. If he were hitting .287 this year, his OBP would be .354 and everyone would be happy. Happy enough, anyways.
Yesterday's triple only served to highlight the fact that he rarely hits them anymore. He's hitting fewer doubles, too. Maybe there is something to the ground ball/fly ball thing with him.
The question is whether, at age 29, we can expect to see Figgins become a .290 hitter again, because if he can be, then the CF situation is resolved.
As for Cabrera, I also tend to think that the Angels don't really think of him as a #3 hitter, but they want both Figgins and Izturis at the top of the lineup, and Cabrera seems to do better hitting higher in the lineup that down at, say, #7. I suspect that unless Maicer Izturis and Figgins both remain in the everyday lineup next year, in addition to Cabrera, then we'll see O.C. back in the more appropriate #2 spot in 2007.
In my mind, 3B and the bullpen are the most serious and pressing concerns.
Though 1B remains a question mark, I am supremely confident that either Morales or Kotchman will prove to the the answer. I was sold on Kotchman even before spring training, and his superb performance in the spring only bolstered that feeling. One wonders how he could have done that while suffering from mono, if the illness was so severe as to prevent him from playing during the season. Then again, he was supposedly getting daily IV treatments and rest that's just not available during the regular season.
But anyway, I think Morales acquitted himself quite nicely, and I also believe that he was just about ready to pick it up when he found himself back at SLC. Given the necessary ABs to adjust, I think Morales can probably be a more than adequate 1B if Kotchman doesn't pan out: a bit more pop, if somewhat lacking in average and OBP.
The bullpen behind K-Rod and the overworked Shields (for now, I'll be optimistic and chalk up his recent struggles to overuse).
I found the intro to DiGiovanna's article rather mysterious: "There is a growing sentiment among the more rational and realistic followers of the Angels — yes, there are a few — that the team might be better off in the long run if it didn't make the playoffs this season."
Where, exactly, has Mike DiG found these "more rational and realistic" followers of the Angels? Could it be the posters on this blog and, perhaps, a certain faction of folks over at another place whose name I'm not sure if it's safe to mention around here?
I also found the juxtaposition of DiG's article and Tim Brown's column - L.A. A-Rod of Anaheim, anyone? - to be not just a happy coincidence. It would answer the Angels' 3B question for the next several years, and could also help to answer the MIF logjam.
# posted by : 9/03/2006 02:55:00 PM
: 9/03/2006 02:55:00 PM
The Angels need a CF and a 3B. The free agent market at both positions is thin. There is a chance that Aramis Ramirez will be free agent this off season. He's almost certain to opt out of his contract, but I'm willing to bet that the Cubs sign him to a new contract before he hits the market. If not, I'd put even money on him ending up in Anaheim. A lot of Cub fans wanted to deal him to the Angels for Brandon Wood at the trade deadline, but I kind of doubt Stoneman would do that with Ramirez having the ability to opt out of his contract at the end of the season.
Alex Rodriguez would look great in an Angel uniform, and he's always hit really well at the Big A. I think he'd be a lot happier in Anaheim than he is currently in New York, so he might agree to the trade. The problem is that the Yankees don't trade for prospects--they want major league stars and I can't think of any Angel (other than the untouchable Vlad) whom the Yankees would have a real interest in.
Alex Rodriguez would look great in an Angel uniform, and he's always hit really well at the Big A. I think he'd be a lot happier in Anaheim than he is currently in New York, so he might agree to the trade. The problem is that the Yankees don't trade for prospects--they want major league stars and I can't think of any Angel (other than the untouchable Vlad) whom the Yankees would have a real interest in.
# posted by : 9/03/2006 04:13:00 PM
: 9/03/2006 04:13:00 PMNewer› ‹Older
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