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Monday, January 15, 2007 |
VORP 1, Mr. Scott: PECOTA Projections Now Available
Well, now that BPro's PECOTA projections are available (the actual page is here), we can learn a few things:
- PECOTA projects a huge drop in Jered Weaver's ability in the second year of his major league career, ending with a still-above-average-but-not-so-impressive 3.82 ERA and 37.7 VORP. (BTW, that's pretty close to my off-the-cuff prediction of a 4.00 ERA or so.) He'll be about as good as John Lackey, whom PECOTA projects for more innings but a much worse .300 BABIP. Between those two and Kelvim Escobar, the three make up for the only starters to crack 20 VORP; everyone else is in the teens or worse. PECOTA doesn't much like the possibilities for Joe Saunders, either.
- Vlad will have another great year, and once again, he'll be the team offensive leader (50.1 VORP, .327/.380/.551, 30 HR). The team's second best hitter will be Howie Kendrick (28.6 VORP, .305/.339/.487, 17 HR), followed by Juan Rivera (19.2 VORP, .296/.350/.476, 17 HR). PECOTA is terribly down on Casey Kotchman, putting him at negative value, something I have a hard time believing, but so with Darin Erstad, something I do not have a hard time believing.
- Brandon Wood (16.7 VORP) right now projects as a better offensive force than Orlando Cabrera (14.1 VORP), thus fueling those who suggest the Angels might be well served to trade Cabrera soon.
- Dallas McPherson? 8.7 VORP and a .240/.307/.473 season over a pretty healthy 407 at-bats.
- One huge surprise: PECOTA hearts Gary Matthews, Jr. to the tune of 16.7 VORP and a .276/.342/.427 line.
- Jason Schmidt instantly becomes the staff ace (29.4 VORP, 4.12 ERA), with Brad Penny hot on his heels (24.7).
- Shocker: Clayton Kershaw is third, with a 22.4 VORP, and following him Derek Lowe (18.2 VORP, 4.40 ERA).
- Once you get past that tier, all the pitchers are in the teens or single digits, or worse.
- PECOTA likes Matt Kemp (37.2 VORP, .295/.346/.507, 24 HR) as the team's best hitter, and Andy LaRoche (32.5 VORP, .285/.356/.49, 24 HR) as its second-best.
- Rafael Furcal (30.2 VORP, .277/.350/.405) and Jeff Kent (28.2 VORP, .284/.371/.486, 13 HR) both should have good seasons, though not the kind of year for Kent that makes you think he should be playing at first. Nomar (18.1 VORP) and Andre Ethier (18.3 VORP) will have similar seasons, too.
Comments:
An ERA of 3.82 in the AL would have been 10th in the league last year.
An ERA of 3.82 in your second year in the AL is not merely "above-average." It's actually impressive.
An ERA of 3.82 in your second year in the AL is not merely "above-average." It's actually impressive.
# posted by 
: 1/15/2007 10:18:00 PM
: 1/15/2007 10:18:00 PM
19.7 VORP. Pretty good, but really kinda meh, especially considering he had a 30.2 VORP year in 2006. In his case, that might be due to his relatively low strikeout rate, but then you look at Lackey's numbers last year (47.1 VORP, 7.86 K/9), and you just scratch your head.
Any chance you could reveal how close the Pecota Vorpies were for 2006?
# posted by : 1/16/2007 01:38:00 AM
: 1/16/2007 01:38:00 AM
I'll take the under on Juan Rivera hitting 17 homers.
CHONE predicts a better season out of Weaver, but its not that far off.
Vlad, Matthews, Kendrick, and I hate to say it but Kotchman seems like they are in the same ballpark as my projections.
I've also got Kemp and LaRoche looking very good for the Dodgers (don't think I have them 1-2 though). The Las Vegas 51's are going to have some impressive numbers this season.
CHONE predicts a better season out of Weaver, but its not that far off.
Vlad, Matthews, Kendrick, and I hate to say it but Kotchman seems like they are in the same ballpark as my projections.
I've also got Kemp and LaRoche looking very good for the Dodgers (don't think I have them 1-2 though). The Las Vegas 51's are going to have some impressive numbers this season.
# posted by : 1/16/2007 07:02:00 AM
: 1/16/2007 07:02:00 AMNewer› ‹Older
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