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Thursday, March 01, 2007 |
How The Angels Might Have Traded Away Their Best Shortstop Prospect
Well, lookee here:
Excellent ProspectsNate Silver explains that unless Wood cuts his strikeout rate, he's just another Russell Branyon playing at a higher-value position. The flipside of Casilla is he's so damned fast that a bunch of his value comes from his legs; slow him down and all of a sudden he's not nearly so impressive. But it's interesting that PECOTA tabs Casilla to be so much more valuable than Wood. (Hat tip: Brian Clevinger.)1. Alexi Casilla, Twins (22) 171.8 2. Brent Lillibridge, Braves (23) 149.1 3. Sean Rodriguez, Angels (22) 129.0 4. Brandon Wood, Angels (22) 122.4 5. Reid Brignac, Devil Rays (21) 120.9 6. Elvis Andrus, Braves (18) 103.5
Comments:
yes, but we got JC Romero in return!
for you that don't pay $$ for this valuable (?) information,
12. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies (22) 60.7 - (that's Rob's boy)
17. Ryan Mount, Angels (20) 46.6
21. Hainley Statia, Angels (21) 41.6
28. Erick Aybar, Angels (23) 32.9
at least the column is entitled right:
Lies, Damned Lies
for you that don't pay $$ for this valuable (?) information,
12. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies (22) 60.7 - (that's Rob's boy)
17. Ryan Mount, Angels (20) 46.6
21. Hainley Statia, Angels (21) 41.6
28. Erick Aybar, Angels (23) 32.9
at least the column is entitled right:
Lies, Damned Lies
Numbers don't mean much without context. Here's what Silver had to say about Wood:
"Where I'm a little bit more optimistic than PECOTA is in the probability that Wood will in fact be able to make these adjustments. Wood has had the apparent good fortune to play in some very friendly hitting environments over his past two seasons, and that won't change next year when he advances to Salt Lake. I think those small ballparks and high altitudes are teaching him some bad habits; the extra-base hits are a little bit too easy to achieve. But I also think he’s talented enough to overcome those bad habits. My guess is that Wood will fail to match his PECOTA projections over his first 500 plate appearances in the majors, but will wind up beating them—perhaps by a lot—by 2009 or 2010."
Since PECOTA can't account for scouting information, it can only go by what a player actually accomplishes, and players who strikeout as often as Wood in AAA don't go on to have successful careers.
As for Aybar: "The one player that I expected to be a fair bit higher is Erick Aybar, since PECOTA liked Aybar a good deal last year. But Aybar’s batting averages have declined for three years in a row—from .330 to .303 to .283—which is troubling for a player who is going to need to hit for average to have much value in the majors. It seems to me that unlike Alexi Casilla, a superficially similar player, Aybar just isn’t taking good at-bats: he doesn’t draw walks, and he popped out in nearly 10 percent of his at-bats."
Aybar pretty much hasn't progressed at all in the last three years. That's a pretty big warning sign for a guy who doesn't have that much patience or power.
"Where I'm a little bit more optimistic than PECOTA is in the probability that Wood will in fact be able to make these adjustments. Wood has had the apparent good fortune to play in some very friendly hitting environments over his past two seasons, and that won't change next year when he advances to Salt Lake. I think those small ballparks and high altitudes are teaching him some bad habits; the extra-base hits are a little bit too easy to achieve. But I also think he’s talented enough to overcome those bad habits. My guess is that Wood will fail to match his PECOTA projections over his first 500 plate appearances in the majors, but will wind up beating them—perhaps by a lot—by 2009 or 2010."
Since PECOTA can't account for scouting information, it can only go by what a player actually accomplishes, and players who strikeout as often as Wood in AAA don't go on to have successful careers.
As for Aybar: "The one player that I expected to be a fair bit higher is Erick Aybar, since PECOTA liked Aybar a good deal last year. But Aybar’s batting averages have declined for three years in a row—from .330 to .303 to .283—which is troubling for a player who is going to need to hit for average to have much value in the majors. It seems to me that unlike Alexi Casilla, a superficially similar player, Aybar just isn’t taking good at-bats: he doesn’t draw walks, and he popped out in nearly 10 percent of his at-bats."
Aybar pretty much hasn't progressed at all in the last three years. That's a pretty big warning sign for a guy who doesn't have that much patience or power.
The whole Special K thing is what keeps me up at night about Wood. I mean... he seems horribly overrated because of his XBH rate but he doesn't get derated enough because of his K rate. The temptation is to say Dallas McPherson part II, but he doesn't have Dallas's injury history, plus he's appreciably younger, plus he can actually play short. So there's reason to ... bite ... my ... tongue.
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