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Monday, July 30, 2007 |
How Many Games Does It Take To Find The Best Team?
Physicists at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico think it's 256:
According to the physicists' analysis and simulations of league play, there's always at least some chance that a lesser team can prevail in any given game. The randomness of outcomes means that it takes a large number of games to guarantee that the best team accumulates the most wins. Specifically, it requires that the total number of games played in a season should be roughly the cube of the number of teams involved. For the 16 team National League, that means 4096 regular season games altogether and 2744 games for the 14 team American League.Baseball Hacks treats a related topic, how to establish a minimum number of at-bats to find a player's performance level. It's a fascinating subject that's full of interesting wrinkles.
Labels: stats
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