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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Bullpennery

Recalling my piece a couple weeks back previewing the Dodgers/Angels series, I remarked upon how bad was the Angels' bullpen. Back then, it was the second worst in the majors. Since that time, they've moved up to fifth worst. The Angels now have a bullpen ERA of 4.39, which is about a half a run (0.52) away from the mediocrity of the Twins or (gulp) Kansas City, but as a consolation prize, the Angels are moving up as much as Boston (4.40), San Diego (4.41), and Cleveland (4.65) are moving down. The Dodgers are also moving up, and now own a 2.91 ERA, good for second place in the majors, behind Philadelphia (2.78).

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Monday, November 12, 2007

PMR For Centerfielders, Second Basemen

David Pinto has continued his annual series of probabilistic model of range (PMR) statistics position-by-position, and today looks at centerfielders, which the Chronicler helpfully converts back into runs. Gary Matthews, Jr. shows up as being just above average (3.9 runs), while Juan Pierre does about twice that (6.9 runs).

The Chronicler also does the same for second basemen. No surprise there, Howie Kendrick is a pretty good (above average but unspectacularly so at 3.8 runs) player at that position, while Adam Kennedy, whom he replaced, has fallen off the floor at -4.7. Jeff Kent is one of the worst second basemen in the league, at -13.1.

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Monday, October 29, 2007

Pickoff Moves

Rumordom And Grady Little's Job Security

Last week, Buster Olney cited unnamed partisans in suggesting that the Dodgers had "a developing opportunity" for Joe Girardi — which, as Ken Gurnick at dodgers.com pointed out, could simply mean he'll become a coach now that there are openings. That story is likely dead now that the Yankees have offered Girardi their managerial job and all the headaches associated with it. Supposedly, Girardi's accepted, and so there goes that possibility.

As with Jon, my inclination is to say none of this really affects the Dodgers until there's an official announcement, which is why I'm taking this New York Post article that suggests the Dodgers are after Joe Torre with all the suspicion it deserves. (Via BTF.)

A-Rod, Best Player In Baseball?

Well, most likely, anyway. What's surprising is how far he isn't above the comparable players. The cost? Only <your team goes here>'s "heart and soul", according to reliable heart-and-soul-monger Buster Olney. I haven't quoted him in ages. Gotta go take a shower now.

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Monday, July 30, 2007

How Many Games Does It Take To Find The Best Team?

Physicists at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico think it's 256:
According to the physicists' analysis and simulations of league play, there's always at least some chance that a lesser team can prevail in any given game. The randomness of outcomes means that it takes a large number of games to guarantee that the best team accumulates the most wins. Specifically, it requires that the total number of games played in a season should be roughly the cube of the number of teams involved. For the 16 team National League, that means 4096 regular season games altogether and 2744 games for the 14 team American League.
Baseball Hacks treats a related topic, how to establish a minimum number of at-bats to find a player's performance level. It's a fascinating subject that's full of interesting wrinkles.

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