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Thursday, August 02, 2007

The Growing Gulf Between The AL Haves And Have-Nots

It's long been known or posited that there's a substantial talent gap between the National League and the American League. Now Nate Silver shines his searchlight on the gap between the AL's best clubs and its worst, and it's an impressive chasm. Financially, "the Yankees are 3.04 standard deviations above the league average in terms of their market size"; adjusted for various mitigating factors, that's 2.43 standard deviations, and a whopping 80% larger than that of the second-biggest team, the Angels.

Silver then goes on to calculate the relative value of the team's draft picks and the actual value they accrue from them; surprisingly, the Devil Rays turn up best by this metric, followed by the Twins and Angels. It's a good thing, because his third metric was a simple office poll of GM ability, in which Bill Stoneman didn't fare especially well, earning the lowest positive score in the group. Nevertheless, the Angels ended up with the second-best score on the list after the Yankees, though I'm not sure it means much.

The odd part of all this is Silver's analysis taking place against the background of the inevitable speculation of who will take over the Yankees once George Steinbrenner goes away. Some part of that might already be taking place, as the Yankees' YES Network is on the block, according to Fortune, with the team perhaps next in line... or not:

Indeed, selling YES could well be part of a long-term plan to keep the Yankees in the Steinbrenner family. The windfall from YES, of which the Yanks own 36 percent, would provide a cushion to pay off any future estate taxes as well as provide the money needed to sign expensive free agents, pay draft picks and otherwise run a business heavy on fixed costs. "The reason they're cashing out is in very large part so they'll have enough cash to continue to own the team," says one source.
YES might go for as much as $3.5 billion according to the article. However you reckon it, that's a lot of money to throw at the problem of winning baseball games.

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Comments:
i ain't buying this one bit where it counts - on the field performance. just look back a few years aggo - the have-not division was the AL Central and now its the best.

it's brains and talent that counts most. The D-Rays, unless management screws it up, will be one of the best teams in the league. The Red Sox just gave up a fine-looking young pitcher for what can be argued as the 3rd or 4th arm in an already stacked bullpen might be close to retirement. The Twinkies and A's win without $$$, but what have the Yankee$ done much of lately after the 1st week in October?

money helps, but its front office brains that count more. The O's have money, but an idiot owner.
 

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