Sunday, October 14, 2007 |
ALCS Game 2, The Lesson Learned: Indians 13, Boston 6 (11 Innings)
I was thinking about the tally of events in that fateful 11th inning, and of scoring events, there were two singles, a wild pitch, a double, and a home run. Those latter two events got me to thinking about the Angels' predicament with regards to hitting the ball hard. Now, public rumormongering about A-Rod becoming an Angel is almost certainly a press release from the Devil himself, but let's put that aside for the moment. I was going to suggest that A-Rod's addition to the lineup would fail to give the team the kind of pop it needs in terms of aggregate team SLG, but that turned out to be wrong.
The Angels' team SLG was .417, good for 9th in the AL. Looking at the Angels' top two third basemen, Chone Figgins and Maicer Izturis playing in those positions, we get these numbers (A-Rod's presented for comparison):
Let's assume A-Rod absorbs 100% of Izturis' AB's at third, and the remaining fraction from Figgins. That leaves 239 of Figgins' AB's at third; assuming his rate stats remain the same, that means we see something like this (and giving Figgy credit for numbers rounded up):Player AB H 2B 3B HR ================================= Figgins 424 125 23 5 3 Izturis 185 50 6 1 1 Rodriguez 583 183 31 0 54
Completely subtracting out Izturis and derating Figgins, we get these figures:Player AB H 2B 3B HR ================================= Figgins 239 79 13 3 2
Player AB H 2B 3B HR
==========================================
Team aggregate 5554 1578 324 23 123
Izturis actual -185 -50 -6 -1 -1
Figgins actual -424 -125 -23 -5 -3
Figgins derated 239 79 13 3 2
A-Rod 2007 583 183 31 0 54
========================
Totals 5554 1665 339 20 175
That alone brings the team aggregate SLG up to .462 (1665+339+2*20+3*175/5554), which would easily put the team in the top two or three by that metric.
Nevertheless, I find myself repelled by several things about A-Rod; he hasn't been a great postseason performer (though the usual small sample size issues pertain, amplified by the fact that typically players are facing much-better-than-average pitching at that time), he's a jerk (as exhibited by his exit from Seattle), and as Texas discovered, one A-Rod does not a team make. I worry about the payroll implications, mainly; does this mean the Angels would have a lot less money to spend in the draft and for international signing bonuses? Certainly.
Labels: angels, indians, postseason, recaps, red sox
And note, this is besides the other baggage he brings that you also mentioned.
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