Friday, January 13, 2012 |
Bill James Predicts The Lansford/Burleson/Hobson Trade Outcome
But what brought this to mind was a Sports Illustrated article by Daniel Okrent (h/t Jay Jaffe on Twitter) introducing the then-unknown Bill James to a wider audience. In particular, check out this passage about that deal, freshly struck, and the far more even-handed deal that sent Fred Lynn to the Angels:
This season James relishes the textbook cases he expects will develop from the big Boston-California switches of the past winter, when players shuttled between the best hitters' park in the league (Fenway) and the third-worst (Anaheim). "One is tempted to say," he writes, "that when you put Carney Lansford in Fenway he will inherit Fred Lynn's statistics, and when you put Lynn in the Big A, he will pick up those left behind. That could very possibly happen, and I've hung myself on cruder scaffolds."Pretty impressive, really.James then made the following bold declarations:
- Lynn, over a period of years, will not even approach in California the offensive production he had in Fenway. If he hit .300 two-thirds of the time in Fenway, it might be one-third of the time in California. James admits that Lynn is unpredictable, but he estimates that in the long run he will be a .285 hitter in Anaheim, with 18 to 24 home runs a year. [In fact, he only once in four years with the Angels posted near a .300 average, in 1982 when he hit .299. — RLM]
- Third Baseman Lansford, a .261 hitter in Anaheim with 15 homers last year, is pegged for a .310 season in Boston with 25 home runs, but, says James, "that doesn't represent the upper boundary of his ability." [Lansford went on to post two very good seasons with Boston, and then found himself traded to Angels' AL West division rival Oakland, where he finished his career.]
- Rick Burleson, the ex-Boston short-Stop, never used Fenway to his particular advantage and should hit just as well in California. [He did — for one year — separated his shoulder in a spring training game in 1982, missed most of that year, posted solid numbers in 1983, but missed most of 1984 when he re-tore his rotator cuff lifting weights before the season.]
- But Butch Hobson, the third baseman sent from Boston to California, is in for trouble. His home-run frequency will hold up, but his average will plummet so much that, in combination with his poor defensive play, it will make him a bad risk. The Angels will eventually bench him, since they already have an abundance of designated hitters and first basemen, and there's no other place to play Hobson. So he'll wind up hitting .230, with 15 to 22 home runs, in no more than 350 to 450 at bats. [Just so. He hit .235/.321/.336.]
- Joe Rudi will drive in 100 runs in Boston if he's healthy and playing. "But," adds James, "if he'd been healthy, he would have done it in California." [I can't tell if Rudi was healthy, but judging from the 49 games he appeared in in 1982 for Boston, I take that as a "no".]
Labels: angels, history, red sox, sabermetrics
Thursday, October 20, 2011 |
Angels Pursuing Rays GM Andrew Friedman
If that happens, it would be the third GM ganked this year from that chair and into another one, as Bleed Cubbie Blue reports Jed Hoyer will leave the Padres to become the Cubs' GM. How this happened I have no idea, but it seems ridiculous to me that the smaller market teams are letting bigger market teams just yank their GMs like that. (I assume the Rays gave the Angels permission to speak with Friedman. If not, it could be considered interference.)
Labels: angels, cubs, padres, rays, red sox, rumors
Wednesday, October 12, 2011 |
Linky, Link, Link
- T.J. Simers unloads on the McCourts, which these days is shooting fish in a barrel, but they deserves it.
- MLB withdrew a bid to have the McCourts' attorneys disqualified from bankruptcy proceedings.
- The Dodgers and MLB traded charges at yesterday's bankruptcy proceedings, the Dodgers hauling out their "MLB forced us into bankruptcy, boo hoo" schtick again, while Fox threatened not to air the last two years of Dodgers games they were contractually required to do if the Dodgers rebid their TV rights including the final year of the contract and in advance of the negotiating window.
Under the MLB Constitution, the league cannot strip an owner of his team without providing him a list of charges in writing, extending an opportunity for a hearing and securing the vote of three-fourths of other owners.
His lies are getting bigger and bolder over time:"The commissioner does not have the authority to force an owner to sell," the Dodgers' filing read.
Instead, the team claims, Selig responded to the "enormous negative publicity" of last year's divorce trial by refusing to let the Dodgers sign a new television contract with Fox, take a loan from Fox or tap into the MLB credit line.
The Dodgers said it was "unlikely that Fox Sports can assert any meaningful damages" for an early sale of the television rights. In turn, Fox threatened a damages claim so high it would threaten McCourt's promise to repay all creditors in full and "render meaningless" his financial projections.
- Bryan Stow is out of the hospital for good now. Godspeed to him, and I hope Frank pays and pays for that man's misery.
- In Boston and Cubs news, it appears that Theo Epstein has a 5-year/$15M deal with the Cubs, per a report from WEEI, the Red Sox' radio broadcaster.
Labels: bryan stow, cubs, dodgers, front office, mccourts, red sox
Monday, September 26, 2011 |
John Lackey Divorces His Ailing Wife
Labels: ex-angels, red sox, stupid ideas
Monday, August 01, 2011 |
Trading Deadline And Other Thoughts
- The Rockies shipped Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland for a package of four minor leaguers, right-handed pitchers Alex White and Joe Gardner, and 1B Matt McBride. LHP Drew Pomerantz is also expected to be traded once his signing anniversary of August 16 is past (players can't be traded within the first year of signing).
- As announced Friday, Rafael Furcal's Dodger career came to an end with a trade to St. Louis. Vinny waxed poetic during Saturday's broadcast, something I have never heard him do previously. It was a sweet moment for a player who really had a very mixed bag of success and injury with the Dodgers.
- The M's shipped Eric Bedard to Boston in a three-team deal involving the Dodgers that ended up with Trayvon Robinson going to Seattle. Robinson hit 26 homers in his first pass at AAA this year as a 23-year-old, so this is at best a head-scratcher; MSTI called it a swap for "organizational depth", and it strikes me that this should be a deal that calls directly and unequivocally Ned Colletti's competence.
- A lot has gone on in my late vacation from blogging; Ervin Santana pitched a no-hitter against Cleveland (as my friend Kelly observed, the one thing the Tribe needs is a bat, so they go out and get... a dodgy starter?). Texas hasn't stumbled, the Angels have done well but not overly so, and so two games out will have to tell the difference. That's competitive, anyway, which is better than I thought they'd do.
Labels: dodgers, indians, mariners, red sox, rockies, trades, transactions
Thursday, May 05, 2011 |
Gazpacho Isn't The Only Dish Served Cold: Angels 11, Red Sox 0
If the first two games of this series were depressing catastrophes, the second two were revenge served in long form, yesterday's a record-setting game that saw pitches thrown at Fenway well past 2:00 AM. Today's was a serial whupping that had the Angels utterly annihilate their former teammate John Lackey — who famously left the Angels for a bigger payday at Fenway — while posting crooked numbers in three straight innings against him. Lucha libre couldn't have been more libre than it was today.
Mark Trumbo drove in a pair on another epic homer that recalled the blasts Troy Glaus used to hit at Fenway. Not only that — he doubled his season walk total with a pair of walks. I'm not sure which is better, but either way, it was teh awesome.
The offense finally found its groove against Red Sox pitching; almost everything worked, and Lackey looked like he was throwing batting practice. Contrariwise, the Angels pitching — even, dear God, Francisco Rodriguez (not the good one) — managed clean innings. It was the largest blanking the Angels have ever managed against the Red Sox, and to do it in Fenway was something special. Extra bonus points to take the AL West flag all by their lonesomes. (As I write this, they could be a whole game up, as the M's are leading Texas 3-1 with one out to go in the top of the 9th.)
Update: The M's won it, so the Angels are a game up in the division.
Labels: angels, recaps, red sox
Two Games
Dodgers Find It's Ethier To Lose With Your Starting Outfielder Sidelined: Cubs 5, Dodgers 1
Andre Ethier a late scratch due to elbow trouble, and what is it with elbows this year? First Casey Blake, then Jonathan Broxton, and minutes later, Ethier all had elbow troubles that kept them off the field. As the rules for hitting streaks make no mention of whether the streak is logged by consecutive team games or player games, I assume this means that the latter is favored over the former. It's a question MLB.com columnist Anthony Castrovince asks but frustratingly never answers.So, the Bud Selig Dodgers after getting out to a 3-0 start are now back down to 7-7. The Dodgers were done in by Ted Lilly's propensity to give up gopherballs, and while he does that normally, I note he does not lead the club in this aspect, that being Clayton Kershaw's dubious honor.
The Dodgers' only run came on Jay Gibbons' sac fly in the sixth. A disappointing outing, to be sure.
Update: I should add something pointed out by Eric Stephen on Twitter yesterday, namely that the Dodgers' 28,419 listed attendance was the fourth sub-30,000 game this year; the Dodgers hadn't had a single game with less than 30,000 listed attendance since 2004.
Announcer Rally Masks Help Angels Win In Extras, Extras, Extras: Angels 5, Red Sox 3 (13 Innings)
Not only an incredibly long game — there was a 2:35 rain delay, and the overall time to completion was a butt-numbing five hours — but the outcome was more than welcome despite a bullpen implosion from closer Jordan Walden, who gave up the tying runs in the bottom of the ninth to force extras. I don't think I've ever seen Fenway that empty before, and given the ultimate outcome, I just can't complain.Stuck in a scoreless tie during a duel between starters Ervin Santana and Josh Beckett, the rain delay — which started in the top of the fifth — took both out of the equation, and the game henceforth became a battle of bullpens. The Angels took the first lead off, improbably, a two-run homer by Vernon Wells in the seventh, who gifted Dan Wheeler with an 11.32 ERA afterwards. The Angels got what looked like an insurance run in the top of the ninth after Hideki Okajima gave up a bases-loaded sac fly to Erick Aybar. Boston had previously scratched out a single run in the bottom of the eighth on Fernando Rodney's ill-advised wild throw to the plate on what was ruled an infield single; Rodney would have been better served to keep the ball in his pocket, though it's not clear to me that the baserunner at third, Adrian Gonzalez, wouldn't have scored anyway.
Bobby Abreu's bases-loaded single off Daisuke Matsuzaka finally won the game in the 13th, but the most fun part of this game was the lucha libre rally masks the announcers wore in the booth. Pure awesomeness, and I expect to see them in the team store presently.
Update: Last night's 2:45 AM EDT finish time is the latest finish for any game, ever in available Red Sox records.
Labels: angels, cubs, dodgers, recaps, red sox
Wednesday, May 04, 2011 |
Pickoff Moves
Can We Just Stop Playing The Red Sox Already? Red Sox 7, Angels 4
The AP recap claimed this amounted to a "thumping" of Danny Haren and the Angels; the latter was true (oh, how it was true), but the former -- four runs over seven innings? Not a quality start, but hardly a "thumping".Another night, another no-show from the offense. I've really had enough of this. Somebody needs to wake Mike Scioscia up from his slumbers. That's, what, one game they've won from the Sawx in the ensuing time since their 2009 ALDS victory?
Broxton Bombs, Ethier Goes 29: Cubs 4, Dodgers 1
Once more, the league's worst bullpen coughed up another loss, with Jonathan Broxton featuring front and center, and showing why he can't be counted on anymore, walking two batters on eight consecutive balls. Both scored after Blake Hawksworth entered the game, sealing Broxton's fate as the losing pitcher.The Dodgers took a 1-0 lead on Matt Kemp's RBI single in the sixth, but that was the only lead they had in the game. It was quickly erased in the top of the seventh on Carlos Pena's solo bomb off starter Chad Billingsley.
Andre Ethier's sole hit, a single to right, came in the fourth, to no effect; he was stranded on base. That takes him to 29 consecutive games, putting him alone in second place in franchise streaks, with two left to tie Willie Davis in 1969. It seems to me meet that he's chasing a record set in what was basically a lost year, the team going 85-77 and finishing fourth behind the Atlanta Braves (remember that craziness?). It's a sideshow.
Update: Jon thinks Broxton might be hurt, especially with his fastball down around 91.
Jon On The McCourt Fiasco
His word against everyone else's, and what's interesting to me is just how little effort McCourt seems to be putting in to convince people he's sound. Instead, he either openly dissembles or answers questions that weren't asked. As I tweeted yesterday at the conclusion of the Mason and Ireland show, McCourt will keep showing up to not answer these questions. We have to reckon that the main reason is that he wishes to appear contrite without ever expressing it that way, because that means confessing his actual mistakes. (It's funny that he keeps wanting absolution without ever describing what it is that he did wrong.) McCourt was on another talk show this morning, on 1360 AM, and pulled more of the same sort of non-responsive answers, followed up by much fawning from whoever it was behind the mic at the radio station. These guys don't see a lot of owners, and so they extend much flattery to any that do show up. I don't see why; Frank will cease to have that title presently.Update: Molly Knight was following McCourt's appearance on KTLA today (that's four in less than 24 hours), and tweeted
McCourt tells KTLA: "The Dodgers do not have a financial problem." I will re-tweet this in a month.
Why Vernon Wells Sucks
Toronto is a nice field for right-handed power hitters, while Angels Stadium de Anaheim isn't. But more than that, I expect we're seeing a significant regression from Vernon, perhaps of the career-ending variety. What a terrible trade.Labels: analysis, angels, cubs, dodgers, mccourts, recaps, red sox
Monday, April 25, 2011 |
Angels Stuff: A Bad Sawx Series, A Callup, And Rating The Relief Corps
- I missed yesterday's conclusion to the series sweep at the hands of the Red Sox, a series that True Grich called four of the most "miserable days in a regular season" in his recollection as a fan. I would answer that with the entire 2003 season, which felt like an enormous disappointment coming off the World Series high. (It also featured a series loss at home against Boston, though not a sweep.) The Sawx blanked the Angels 7-0 with Alberto Callaspo batting cleanup. Really, Mike? I hope we never see that again.
- A Halos Heaven fanshot cites an El Nacional report claiming Alexi Amarista has been called up to the big club, return unknown as of this moment.
Update: I note in passing that Rotoworld, which is usually up on this kind of thing, does not make this report.
- Lastly, as kind of a fun thing, Sam Miller at the Register has a straw poll asking Angels fans to rate Halos relievers in order of most trusted to least. I don't think Scott Downs deserves to be on that list given how little he's pitched, do you?
Labels: angels, recaps, red sox, transactions
Saturday, April 23, 2011 |
Forfeit: Red Sox 5, Angels 0
Labels: angels, recaps, red sox
Do-Over: Red Sox 4, Angels 3
The Angels did virtually nothing against Lester, save for a single run in the seventh that felt like some kind of alien gift, Jeff Mathis knocking home Erick Aybar. Aybar's managing to get into scoring position (by way of a stolen base) was of itself a topic of some horror to the Red Sox, who feature the now-dubious Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the dish as their starting catcher, the elderly Jason Varitek no longer able to discharge those duties reliably. Salty famously had a case of the "yips" while he was with Texas and later, last year, with Boston. He's been pretty terrible at throwing out baserunners in his career (the 30% he took into today's game was a career high — his career figure is 21%), and I expect the wild pitch was a generous call in the second. Finally the scorer could handle it no more in the eighth, and with Bobby Jenks on the mound, charged him with an outright passed ball that allowed Bobby Abreu to score from second base. He stood at the plate stunned, hands wide, as if he expected the ball to materialize from the ether. Abreu charged him like a freight train, gathering steam as he passed third, and by the time Salty realized his peril, it was far too late.
Gifted with such a boon, the Angels proceeded to squander it, with Mike Scioscia electing to bring in a pinch hitter for Mark Trumbo (the only batter in that part of the lineup capable of changing the game with one swing of the bat), and a pinch runner for Alberto Callaspo. The pinch runner was odd; the pinch hitter, indefensible. Bobby Jenks had a 7+ ERA going into the inning, and if you have any faith in Trumbo at all, you leave him in the game against a struggling reliever who's lost 4-5 MPH on his formerly league-leading fastball. Instead, Maicer Izturis bounced out meekly, 4-3, ending the frame and the threat. It seemed the opposite of good managerial tactics, eventually a ransacking of the bench (Bobby Wilson came in to play first base for Trumbo), and nothing to show for it.
At last, a couple random comments about the game's environment:
- Helen mentioned that the lower attendance (39,005 official, and probably close to that in the seats) and the late cold start for the Red Sox has discouraged the more irritating Red Sox fans from materializing in the seats; and so it was. We had no problems at all with the Boston faithful in the park, and neither did we observe anyone in Angels colors harassing their counterparts.
- We didn't notice this until just today, but the vegetarian options improved immensely with a Melissa's stand on the field level. We didn't eat there today because we elected to grab something at Fresca's before the game, but Helen vows she'll give it a try tomorrow.
Labels: angels, recaps, red sox
Friday, April 08, 2011 |
The Staggering Decline Of John Lackey
In retrospect, that would have been a terrible move. Lackey's 2010 splits show some amazing numbers; he blew up against Cleveland (10.13 ERA), Colorado (6.75 ERA), Detroit (6.43 ERA), and Toronto (8.61 ERA), among his other bad outings. The point being, his overall 4.40 ERA was not due exclusively to facing the Yankees three times.
Labels: blue jays, ex-angels, indians, red sox, rockies, tigers, yankees
Tuesday, March 01, 2011 |
Implausible Reports From History: The Red Sox' Fifth Starter
Labels: red sox
Wednesday, December 08, 2010 |
Red Sox Sign Carl Crawford
Instant Twitter reactions:
Obviously Torii Hunter isn't much of a recruiter. #angels #carlcrawford #failThe Register's Sam Miller:
Poor Torii Hunter, failed to recruit another one. It's almost like these guys would rather have an extra $20 million than do a buddy a solidAnd most brutally, Jay Jaffe:
That's bringing a spork to a knife fight. RT @BloggingBombers: source: Angels offered Crawford seven-year deal worth $108 million.Update: Craig Calcaterra thinks that Cliff Lee is about to get a seven-year deal from the Yanks, Texas will learn to do without, and other useful pieces of intelligence about the hot stove chessboard.
Labels: angels, hot stove, red sox, transactions
Monday, October 25, 2010 |
The Myth Of The Myth Of The Small-Market Series
Also: converted to actual market size numbers, the gap from a Phillies (3M)/Yankees (7.5M, total 10.5M households) World Series to a Giants (2.5M)/Rangers (2.6M) World Series amounts to a difference of nearly half.
(Nate Barlow at Deep Into Sports last year did a calculation on a related issue, payroll dollars spent per audience household.)
Labels: giants, postseason, rangers, red sox, tv, yankees
Wednesday, June 23, 2010 |
Red Sox Mickey Vandalized
Sunday, June 20, 2010 |
Broxton Blows The Hold: Red Sox 5, Dodgers 4
Labels: dodgers, recaps, red sox
Friday, June 18, 2010 |
Games, Games, Games, Some Catching Up, And A Return To Service
Administrivia: Away, Now Back
It's been a week since I last posted, but a busy one at work and elsewhere, capped off with a brief trip to San Francisco, and my first-ever visit to the land of the Dodgers' native enemies, AT&T Park (photos to come). All that has lead to this blog getting the short end of that stick. My apologies to whoever may still be following here.Things I Missed: Roster Notes
- I see that Jeff Mathis is back among the 25-man roster for the Angels. The team DFA'd Michael Ryan to make room.
- Shockingly, Erick Aybar was injured in a take-out slide in the series opener against the Brewers. Stranger still, there's apparently hope that the torn miniscus may not be as badly damaged as initially thought, because he was seen walking without pain.
- The Angels recalled Brandon Wood. Hold your breath.
- Robb Quinlan went back down, and Mike Napoli will probably replace him for the rest of the year at first.
- Maicer Izturis promptly got put back on the 15-day-DL.
- Sean O'Sullivan is back up.
- Chad Billingsley went down, and Travis Schlichting went back up.
Angels Survive Late Cubs Uprising: Angels 7, Cubs 6
This one gave Helen a lot to love, especially late in the game; the four-run ninth keynoted by a no-outs three-run jack by Tyler Colvin was especially galling. Carlos Silva took the proximate loss for the Cubs, but the real turd that lost the game was Bob Howry giving up three more runs that really, ultimately put the game out of reach. Great news if you're the Angels, but it's part of a longer stretch of very bad decision-making by Lou Piniella that makes you wonder if he's senile.On the plus side for the Angels, they got another six-inning game out of Kazmir, and some of the guys who needed it — Brandon Wood and Jeff Mathis in particular — got hits. And what was Howie Kendrick doing at the top of the order, besides not getting on base?
Manny Gets Mixed Reviews As Boston Slays The Bullpen: Red Sox 10, Dodgers 6
Whatever happened to those Hooters promos for the home team scoring ten runs or more? They were all over the place a few years ago, and completely dried up in 2008 or so. The Fenway faithful could have qualified after this one, only this time Monasterios couldn't handle the job. I remember at one point — in the bottom of the fifth, in fact, after the game was long lost and Travis Schlichting was called on to mop-up duties — that they were intentionally walking David Ortiz to get to ... Kevin Youkilis? It worked, but that's nothing like what you'd call approval.The Very Air Abounds With Ironies: Padres 3, Orioles 2
So, let me see if I have this straight:- Frank McCourt, a native Bostonian, tries and fails to buy the Red Sox.
- He purchases the Dodgers, successfully, in one of the most heavily leveraged transactions in MLB history.
- The team he previously rooted for routes his current team, and this despite using one of Boston's former marquee players.
- This left him dependent on the club from his estranged wife's native city, Baltimore, to at least hold on leads of 1-0 and 2-1 (going into the 9th), in order to keep pace with his team's current principal rivals in the standings.
Labels: angels, cubs, dodgers, injuries, orioles, padres, recaps, red sox, transactions
Thursday, May 06, 2010 |
Angels In Free-Fall: Red Sox 11, Angels 6
This year isn't quite that bad, and in fact, there's a bit of a silver lining hiding in that horrible year: on this day in 1993, the Angels were 15-10 with a half game lead in the division. Nonetheless, this year's Angels are proving to have the classic symptoms of a team that's waiting far too long to get their act together. Scott Kazmir, given a four-run first-inning lead, proceeded to gave half of it away in the fourth on the strength of a two-run Victor Martinez homer. He surrendered the lead for good in the fifth, with Victor Martinez tying the game on a bases-loaded double, and between Brian Stokes and the random Matt Palmer, the Angels ended up on the wrong side of an 11-6 score. Kazmir walked enough people to fill a small conference room (five), and of those, only two scored, more luck than anything else.
Of course, the problem I have with all this is that I don't really have any good ideas about how to fix it; and I very much doubt that Mike Scioscia or Tony Reagins do, either. The Kazmir trade, of which I've always been very skeptical, is looking increasingly painful despite Sean Rodriguez' .200/.260/.289 line in the Show this year. Brandon Wood struck out in this game three times, and you just wonder how much longer the organization can stomach his three-pitch whiffs, one of which he seems to include in every single game.
But if the team were functioning acceptably otherwise, this wouldn't be a big problem. However, Kendry Morales went 0-for-5, Torii Hunter 1-for-5; and then all the pitchers in this game save for Fernando Rodney finished it with ERAs north of 6.00. I've been waiting for an explosion from Mike Scioscia, but so far it hasn't happened.
And it's not just the losing, it's the humiliation. The Angels have been outscored by the Red Sox by margins of four or more in three games of the series. This has to stop. If only it could.
Labels: angels, recaps, red sox, suck
Wednesday, May 05, 2010 |
Waiting On The Wins: Red Sox 3, Angels 1
Yet, Fangraphs places the WPA blame on Torii Hunter, mainly for hitting into an inning-ending double play in the third.
I suppose the Angels will eventually stop sucking, but the real question is when, and for how long.
I suppose I should say something nice about Piniero's start, which was legitimately good; but the Angels' offense was the story here. The question of historical suck continues, and tomorrow's game will decide whether the Angels will match their longest losing streak since 2001. You certainly don't want to see them replicate their 1999, in which they had an unimaginable 11-game skid from July 16 through the 26th.
Labels: angels, recaps, red sox
