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Friday, January 13, 2012

Bill James Predicts The Lansford/Burleson/Hobson Trade Outcome

Back when I was doing the daily series about player birthdays in team history, I ran this for Rick Burleson which detailed the catastrophic trade by the Angels of Carney Lansford, Mark Clear, and Rick Miller to Boston for Rick Burleson and Butch Hobson. That deal turned out to be a catastrophe for the Angels — it was the second such horror in as many years, given the team let Nolan Ryan walk in free agency just the year prior.

But what brought this to mind was a Sports Illustrated article by Daniel Okrent (h/t Jay Jaffe on Twitter) introducing the then-unknown Bill James to a wider audience. In particular, check out this passage about that deal, freshly struck, and the far more even-handed deal that sent Fred Lynn to the Angels:

This season James relishes the textbook cases he expects will develop from the big Boston-California switches of the past winter, when players shuttled between the best hitters' park in the league (Fenway) and the third-worst (Anaheim). "One is tempted to say," he writes, "that when you put Carney Lansford in Fenway he will inherit Fred Lynn's statistics, and when you put Lynn in the Big A, he will pick up those left behind. That could very possibly happen, and I've hung myself on cruder scaffolds."

James then made the following bold declarations:

  • Lynn, over a period of years, will not even approach in California the offensive production he had in Fenway. If he hit .300 two-thirds of the time in Fenway, it might be one-third of the time in California. James admits that Lynn is unpredictable, but he estimates that in the long run he will be a .285 hitter in Anaheim, with 18 to 24 home runs a year. [In fact, he only once in four years with the Angels posted near a .300 average, in 1982 when he hit .299. — RLM]
  • Third Baseman Lansford, a .261 hitter in Anaheim with 15 homers last year, is pegged for a .310 season in Boston with 25 home runs, but, says James, "that doesn't represent the upper boundary of his ability." [Lansford went on to post two very good seasons with Boston, and then found himself traded to Angels' AL West division rival Oakland, where he finished his career.]
  • Rick Burleson, the ex-Boston short-Stop, never used Fenway to his particular advantage and should hit just as well in California. [He did — for one year — separated his shoulder in a spring training game in 1982, missed most of that year, posted solid numbers in 1983, but missed most of 1984 when he re-tore his rotator cuff lifting weights before the season.]
  • But Butch Hobson, the third baseman sent from Boston to California, is in for trouble. His home-run frequency will hold up, but his average will plummet so much that, in combination with his poor defensive play, it will make him a bad risk. The Angels will eventually bench him, since they already have an abundance of designated hitters and first basemen, and there's no other place to play Hobson. So he'll wind up hitting .230, with 15 to 22 home runs, in no more than 350 to 450 at bats. [Just so. He hit .235/.321/.336.]
  • Joe Rudi will drive in 100 runs in Boston if he's healthy and playing. "But," adds James, "if he'd been healthy, he would have done it in California." [I can't tell if Rudi was healthy, but judging from the 49 games he appeared in in 1982 for Boston, I take that as a "no".]
Pretty impressive, really.

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Thursday, October 20, 2011

Angels Pursuing Rays GM Andrew Friedman

NBC Sports' Hardball Talk passes along a report from the Sports Blog Nation DRays Bay that Arte Moreno, Angels team president John Carpino, and Rays GM Andrew Friedman were seen having dinner in a St. Petersburg restaurant.

If that happens, it would be the third GM ganked this year from that chair and into another one, as Bleed Cubbie Blue reports Jed Hoyer will leave the Padres to become the Cubs' GM. How this happened I have no idea, but it seems ridiculous to me that the smaller market teams are letting bigger market teams just yank their GMs like that. (I assume the Rays gave the Angels permission to speak with Friedman. If not, it could be considered interference.)

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Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Linky, Link, Link

Various and sundry on a Wednesday morn:

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Monday, September 26, 2011

John Lackey Divorces His Ailing Wife

Okay, so I'm really glad the Angels didn't outbid the Red Sox for his services. Apparently she has breast cancer. Blecch.

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Monday, August 01, 2011

Trading Deadline And Other Thoughts

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Thursday, May 05, 2011

Gazpacho Isn't The Only Dish Served Cold: Angels 11, Red Sox 0

Oh. My. God.

If the first two games of this series were depressing catastrophes, the second two were revenge served in long form, yesterday's a record-setting game that saw pitches thrown at Fenway well past 2:00 AM. Today's was a serial whupping that had the Angels utterly annihilate their former teammate John Lackey — who famously left the Angels for a bigger payday at Fenway — while posting crooked numbers in three straight innings against him. Lucha libre couldn't have been more libre than it was today.

Mark Trumbo drove in a pair on another epic homer that recalled the blasts Troy Glaus used to hit at Fenway. Not only that — he doubled his season walk total with a pair of walks. I'm not sure which is better, but either way, it was teh awesome.

The offense finally found its groove against Red Sox pitching; almost everything worked, and Lackey looked like he was throwing batting practice. Contrariwise, the Angels pitching — even, dear God, Francisco Rodriguez (not the good one) — managed clean innings. It was the largest blanking the Angels have ever managed against the Red Sox, and to do it in Fenway was something special. Extra bonus points to take the AL West flag all by their lonesomes. (As I write this, they could be a whole game up, as the M's are leading Texas 3-1 with one out to go in the top of the 9th.)

Update: The M's won it, so the Angels are a game up in the division.

ESPN Box • Angels recap

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Two Games

Dodgers Find It's Ethier To Lose With Your Starting Outfielder Sidelined: Cubs 5, Dodgers 1

Andre Ethier a late scratch due to elbow trouble, and what is it with elbows this year? First Casey Blake, then Jonathan Broxton, and minutes later, Ethier all had elbow troubles that kept them off the field. As the rules for hitting streaks make no mention of whether the streak is logged by consecutive team games or player games, I assume this means that the latter is favored over the former. It's a question MLB.com columnist Anthony Castrovince asks but frustratingly never answers.

So, the Bud Selig Dodgers after getting out to a 3-0 start are now back down to 7-7. The Dodgers were done in by Ted Lilly's propensity to give up gopherballs, and while he does that normally, I note he does not lead the club in this aspect, that being Clayton Kershaw's dubious honor.

The Dodgers' only run came on Jay Gibbons' sac fly in the sixth. A disappointing outing, to be sure.

Update: I should add something pointed out by Eric Stephen on Twitter yesterday, namely that the Dodgers' 28,419 listed attendance was the fourth sub-30,000 game this year; the Dodgers hadn't had a single game with less than 30,000 listed attendance since 2004.

ESPN Box • Dodgers recap

Announcer Rally Masks Help Angels Win In Extras, Extras, Extras: Angels 5, Red Sox 3 (13 Innings)

Not only an incredibly long game — there was a 2:35 rain delay, and the overall time to completion was a butt-numbing five hours — but the outcome was more than welcome despite a bullpen implosion from closer Jordan Walden, who gave up the tying runs in the bottom of the ninth to force extras. I don't think I've ever seen Fenway that empty before, and given the ultimate outcome, I just can't complain.

Stuck in a scoreless tie during a duel between starters Ervin Santana and Josh Beckett, the rain delay — which started in the top of the fifth — took both out of the equation, and the game henceforth became a battle of bullpens. The Angels took the first lead off, improbably, a two-run homer by Vernon Wells in the seventh, who gifted Dan Wheeler with an 11.32 ERA afterwards. The Angels got what looked like an insurance run in the top of the ninth after Hideki Okajima gave up a bases-loaded sac fly to Erick Aybar. Boston had previously scratched out a single run in the bottom of the eighth on Fernando Rodney's ill-advised wild throw to the plate on what was ruled an infield single; Rodney would have been better served to keep the ball in his pocket, though it's not clear to me that the baserunner at third, Adrian Gonzalez, wouldn't have scored anyway.

Bobby Abreu's bases-loaded single off Daisuke Matsuzaka finally won the game in the 13th, but the most fun part of this game was the lucha libre rally masks the announcers wore in the booth. Pure awesomeness, and I expect to see them in the team store presently.

Update: Last night's 2:45 AM EDT finish time is the latest finish for any game, ever in available Red Sox records.

ESPN Box • Angels recap

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Wednesday, May 04, 2011

Pickoff Moves

Can We Just Stop Playing The Red Sox Already? Red Sox 7, Angels 4

The AP recap claimed this amounted to a "thumping" of Danny Haren and the Angels; the latter was true (oh, how it was true), but the former -- four runs over seven innings? Not a quality start, but hardly a "thumping".

Another night, another no-show from the offense. I've really had enough of this. Somebody needs to wake Mike Scioscia up from his slumbers. That's, what, one game they've won from the Sawx in the ensuing time since their 2009 ALDS victory?

ESPN Box • Angels recap

Broxton Bombs, Ethier Goes 29: Cubs 4, Dodgers 1

Once more, the league's worst bullpen coughed up another loss, with Jonathan Broxton featuring front and center, and showing why he can't be counted on anymore, walking two batters on eight consecutive balls. Both scored after Blake Hawksworth entered the game, sealing Broxton's fate as the losing pitcher.

The Dodgers took a 1-0 lead on Matt Kemp's RBI single in the sixth, but that was the only lead they had in the game. It was quickly erased in the top of the seventh on Carlos Pena's solo bomb off starter Chad Billingsley.

Andre Ethier's sole hit, a single to right, came in the fourth, to no effect; he was stranded on base. That takes him to 29 consecutive games, putting him alone in second place in franchise streaks, with two left to tie Willie Davis in 1969. It seems to me meet that he's chasing a record set in what was basically a lost year, the team going 85-77 and finishing fourth behind the Atlanta Braves (remember that craziness?). It's a sideshow.

Update: Jon thinks Broxton might be hurt, especially with his fastball down around 91.

ESPN Box • Dodgers recap

Jon On The McCourt Fiasco

His word against everyone else's, and what's interesting to me is just how little effort McCourt seems to be putting in to convince people he's sound. Instead, he either openly dissembles or answers questions that weren't asked. As I tweeted yesterday at the conclusion of the Mason and Ireland show, McCourt will keep showing up to not answer these questions. We have to reckon that the main reason is that he wishes to appear contrite without ever expressing it that way, because that means confessing his actual mistakes. (It's funny that he keeps wanting absolution without ever describing what it is that he did wrong.) McCourt was on another talk show this morning, on 1360 AM, and pulled more of the same sort of non-responsive answers, followed up by much fawning from whoever it was behind the mic at the radio station. These guys don't see a lot of owners, and so they extend much flattery to any that do show up. I don't see why; Frank will cease to have that title presently.

Update: Molly Knight was following McCourt's appearance on KTLA today (that's four in less than 24 hours), and tweeted

McCourt tells KTLA: "The Dodgers do not have a financial problem." I will re-tweet this in a month.

Why Vernon Wells Sucks

Toronto is a nice field for right-handed power hitters, while Angels Stadium de Anaheim isn't. But more than that, I expect we're seeing a significant regression from Vernon, perhaps of the career-ending variety. What a terrible trade.

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Monday, April 25, 2011

Angels Stuff: A Bad Sawx Series, A Callup, And Rating The Relief Corps

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Saturday, April 23, 2011

Forfeit: Red Sox 5, Angels 0

The Angels offense didn't show up, Ervin Santana had another crappy game, and I shoulda stayed home. An appalling game.

Yahoo box

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Do-Over: Red Sox 4, Angels 3

It really felt like this game was much further away for the Angels than it was for most of the night, and mainly that was due to their offensive ineffectiveness against Boston starter Jon Lester. Much of that feeling of being 20 runs out came from one bad inning, the fourth, in which an overly-timid youngster, Peter Bourjos, failed to call off his teammates to take charge of a play he clearly should have made — catching Carl Crawford's pop to center. As it was, both baserunners scored and Crawford reached successfully, though mercifully, the play was ruled an error and Crawford recorded no runs batted in. Dan Haren instantly, and both fairly and unfairly, became the loser.

The Angels did virtually nothing against Lester, save for a single run in the seventh that felt like some kind of alien gift, Jeff Mathis knocking home Erick Aybar. Aybar's managing to get into scoring position (by way of a stolen base) was of itself a topic of some horror to the Red Sox, who feature the now-dubious Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the dish as their starting catcher, the elderly Jason Varitek no longer able to discharge those duties reliably. Salty famously had a case of the "yips" while he was with Texas and later, last year, with Boston. He's been pretty terrible at throwing out baserunners in his career (the 30% he took into today's game was a career high — his career figure is 21%), and I expect the wild pitch was a generous call in the second. Finally the scorer could handle it no more in the eighth, and with Bobby Jenks on the mound, charged him with an outright passed ball that allowed Bobby Abreu to score from second base. He stood at the plate stunned, hands wide, as if he expected the ball to materialize from the ether. Abreu charged him like a freight train, gathering steam as he passed third, and by the time Salty realized his peril, it was far too late.

Gifted with such a boon, the Angels proceeded to squander it, with Mike Scioscia electing to bring in a pinch hitter for Mark Trumbo (the only batter in that part of the lineup capable of changing the game with one swing of the bat), and a pinch runner for Alberto Callaspo. The pinch runner was odd; the pinch hitter, indefensible. Bobby Jenks had a 7+ ERA going into the inning, and if you have any faith in Trumbo at all, you leave him in the game against a struggling reliever who's lost 4-5 MPH on his formerly league-leading fastball. Instead, Maicer Izturis bounced out meekly, 4-3, ending the frame and the threat. It seemed the opposite of good managerial tactics, eventually a ransacking of the bench (Bobby Wilson came in to play first base for Trumbo), and nothing to show for it.

ESPN Box • Angels recap


At last, a couple random comments about the game's environment:

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Friday, April 08, 2011

The Staggering Decline Of John Lackey

John Lackey lasted five innings in today's season opener at Fenway Park while giving up six runs, all earned. That fact prompted Jon Weisman to take a look in the rear view at the 2009/2010 offseason in which some Dodger fans were thinking the team should have made a run at him.

In retrospect, that would have been a terrible move. Lackey's 2010 splits show some amazing numbers; he blew up against Cleveland (10.13 ERA), Colorado (6.75 ERA), Detroit (6.43 ERA), and Toronto (8.61 ERA), among his other bad outings. The point being, his overall 4.40 ERA was not due exclusively to facing the Yankees three times.

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Tuesday, March 01, 2011

Implausible Reports From History: The Red Sox' Fifth Starter

I was listening to the Red Sox/Twins scrimmage this morning when I heard something utterly astonishing: the formerly highly-sought-after Scott Boras client is fighting for a fifth starter job in the Red Sox' rotation. Remember when Dice-K was worthy of wooing? It seems a million years ago.

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Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Red Sox Sign Carl Crawford

The Times among other venues is reporting that Carl Crawford has signed with the Red Sox for 7 years/$142M. If that's the cost of doing business with Crawford, the Angels made the right move in letting him slide.

Instant Twitter reactions:

Jim Alexander:

Obviously Torii Hunter isn't much of a recruiter. #angels #carlcrawford #fail
The Register's Sam Miller:
Poor Torii Hunter, failed to recruit another one. It's almost like these guys would rather have an extra $20 million than do a buddy a solid
And most brutally, Jay Jaffe:
That's bringing a spork to a knife fight. RT @BloggingBombers: source: Angels offered Crawford seven-year deal worth $108 million.
Update: Craig Calcaterra thinks that Cliff Lee is about to get a seven-year deal from the Yanks, Texas will learn to do without, and other useful pieces of intelligence about the hot stove chessboard.

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Monday, October 25, 2010

The Myth Of The Myth Of The Small-Market Series

Over the last 48 hours, I've seen various people carp on Twitter, and now in Sabernomics, that the upcoming Giants/Rangers World Series is not, in fact, a small-market series, this according to Nielsen market breakdown. That's all well and good, but it fails to take into consideration the hidden issues of how valuable each team's fan is, both to the broadcasters (indirect value) and to the team itself (direct value such as ticket sales, parking, etc.) I would be willing to bet that the Red Sox are much better at monetizing their fans than the Giants or Rangers, i.e. they have more engaged fans than either team. And of course, the Yankees have more fans than anybody.

Also: converted to actual market size numbers, the gap from a Phillies (3M)/Yankees (7.5M, total 10.5M households) World Series to a Giants (2.5M)/Rangers (2.6M) World Series amounts to a difference of nearly half.

(Nate Barlow at Deep Into Sports last year did a calculation on a related issue, payroll dollars spent per audience household.)

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Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Red Sox Mickey Vandalized

That's funny. The Mouse had a whole 30 teams' worth of mice out there, with a photo contest.

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Sunday, June 20, 2010

Broxton Blows The Hold: Red Sox 5, Dodgers 4

Honestly, I was just happy the Dodgers managed to tie the game in the seventh. Broxton will lose a few games for you, but he generally will win more; this was one in the L column, unfortunately.

ESPN Box • Dodgers recap

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Friday, June 18, 2010

Games, Games, Games, Some Catching Up, And A Return To Service

Administrivia: Away, Now Back

It's been a week since I last posted, but a busy one at work and elsewhere, capped off with a brief trip to San Francisco, and my first-ever visit to the land of the Dodgers' native enemies, AT&T Park (photos to come). All that has lead to this blog getting the short end of that stick. My apologies to whoever may still be following here.

Things I Missed: Roster Notes

Man, that's a lot for just a week.

Angels Survive Late Cubs Uprising: Angels 7, Cubs 6

This one gave Helen a lot to love, especially late in the game; the four-run ninth keynoted by a no-outs three-run jack by Tyler Colvin was especially galling. Carlos Silva took the proximate loss for the Cubs, but the real turd that lost the game was Bob Howry giving up three more runs that really, ultimately put the game out of reach. Great news if you're the Angels, but it's part of a longer stretch of very bad decision-making by Lou Piniella that makes you wonder if he's senile.

On the plus side for the Angels, they got another six-inning game out of Kazmir, and some of the guys who needed it — Brandon Wood and Jeff Mathis in particular — got hits. And what was Howie Kendrick doing at the top of the order, besides not getting on base?

ESPN Box • Angels recap

Manny Gets Mixed Reviews As Boston Slays The Bullpen: Red Sox 10, Dodgers 6

Whatever happened to those Hooters promos for the home team scoring ten runs or more? They were all over the place a few years ago, and completely dried up in 2008 or so. The Fenway faithful could have qualified after this one, only this time Monasterios couldn't handle the job. I remember at one point — in the bottom of the fifth, in fact, after the game was long lost and Travis Schlichting was called on to mop-up duties — that they were intentionally walking David Ortiz to get to ... Kevin Youkilis? It worked, but that's nothing like what you'd call approval.

ESPN Box • Dodgers recap

The Very Air Abounds With Ironies: Padres 3, Orioles 2

So, let me see if I have this straight: Of course the Birds fail.

ESPN Box

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Thursday, May 06, 2010

Angels In Free-Fall: Red Sox 11, Angels 6

As I mentioned the other day, the Angels' last stint when they lost seven in a row was in the lost year of 2001, when they did it twice; but neither of those were consecutive series. (They were split over three teams, one of which was a short two-game set.) The last time they lost seven straight as every game of consecutive series was the 1993 team, losing consecutive road sweeps to the Red Sox and Yankees in the midst of a horrific 11-game skid that saw them fall from three games out of the division lead to nine games back; they finished 71-91, 23 games out of the division behind the Chisox.

This year isn't quite that bad, and in fact, there's a bit of a silver lining hiding in that horrible year: on this day in 1993, the Angels were 15-10 with a half game lead in the division. Nonetheless, this year's Angels are proving to have the classic symptoms of a team that's waiting far too long to get their act together. Scott Kazmir, given a four-run first-inning lead, proceeded to gave half of it away in the fourth on the strength of a two-run Victor Martinez homer. He surrendered the lead for good in the fifth, with Victor Martinez tying the game on a bases-loaded double, and between Brian Stokes and the random Matt Palmer, the Angels ended up on the wrong side of an 11-6 score. Kazmir walked enough people to fill a small conference room (five), and of those, only two scored, more luck than anything else.

Of course, the problem I have with all this is that I don't really have any good ideas about how to fix it; and I very much doubt that Mike Scioscia or Tony Reagins do, either. The Kazmir trade, of which I've always been very skeptical, is looking increasingly painful despite Sean Rodriguez' .200/.260/.289 line in the Show this year. Brandon Wood struck out in this game three times, and you just wonder how much longer the organization can stomach his three-pitch whiffs, one of which he seems to include in every single game.

But if the team were functioning acceptably otherwise, this wouldn't be a big problem. However, Kendry Morales went 0-for-5, Torii Hunter 1-for-5; and then all the pitchers in this game save for Fernando Rodney finished it with ERAs north of 6.00. I've been waiting for an explosion from Mike Scioscia, but so far it hasn't happened.

And it's not just the losing, it's the humiliation. The Angels have been outscored by the Red Sox by margins of four or more in three games of the series. This has to stop. If only it could.

ESPN box • Angels recap

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Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Waiting On The Wins: Red Sox 3, Angels 1

The John Lackey rematch went more or less as expected, the Angels failing to capitalize on their big chance in the top of the second, with Brandon Wood striking out swinging with the bases loaded; it would be the first of two times on the night he would whiff. The second time, in the eighth, he managed that feat on three pitches. I always thought Lackey would be good early but bad later; the Angels will have to wait to see how he is at the end of his contract, at which point I hope they make up for today's game. Wood eventually did homer, the Angels' only run in the game; but the character of the game would have been radically different had he gotten a solid single up the middle with the bags juiced to score a couple.

Yet, Fangraphs places the WPA blame on Torii Hunter, mainly for hitting into an inning-ending double play in the third.

I suppose the Angels will eventually stop sucking, but the real question is when, and for how long.

I suppose I should say something nice about Piniero's start, which was legitimately good; but the Angels' offense was the story here. The question of historical suck continues, and tomorrow's game will decide whether the Angels will match their longest losing streak since 2001. You certainly don't want to see them replicate their 1999, in which they had an unimaginable 11-game skid from July 16 through the 26th.

ESPN Box • Angels recap

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