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Saturday, March 01, 2008

The Crank Reviews 2007 Expected Win Share Levels Vs. Actual Win Shares

Here, and the Angels were in the top half at +39.28; Casey Kotchman, Orlando Cabrera, and Kelvim Escobar (??) were the overperformers, while Juan Rivera, Shea Hillenbrand (come on!), and Ervin Santana (got me there) were the underperformers.

The Dodgers actually slightly outperformed their EWSL from last year, too, which maybe says something about Ned's roster construction; it's odd that most teams exceeded their EWSL, save for the Astros and Marlins. The Dodgers outpaced their expected 212 WSL by posting a 231.76 WS, a "surplus" of 14.24, but that put them in the bottom third thanks to nearly everyone coming in very short. You could argue that the EWSL system therefore suffers from the Lake Woebegone effect in that it seemingly (at least this year) underestimates future performance. The A's did worse than any other team in this system; I forget where it was, but I saw them picked to finish not only last in the division but as the worst team in the American League. Ouch.

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