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Thursday, April 03, 2008 |
PECOTA Predicts ... And Nate Silver Corrects
In today's BPro, Nate Silver looks at guys expected to overperform their PECOTA numbers and finds James Loney on that short list:
1B James Loney, Dodgers: Loney’s projection isn’t bad; it's a hell of a lot better than what the Dodgers might have expected to get out of Nomar Garciaparra at first base. But PECOTA is still hedging its bets a bit because of Loney’s mediocre .239 EqA in 2005 in Jacksonville, a season that we can probably excuse on account of Loney’s having been rushed. It’s also a skeptical of some of the high batting averages that Loney has posted in the minors, but his .331 BA over 375 plate appearances in the majors last year ought at least to suggest that he wasn’t merely taking advantage of shoddy minor league defenses. I expect Loney to append about 15 points of batting average to PECOTA’s projection, and produce something resembling his 75th percentile forecast line (.308/.375/.501).PECOTA projects the Dodgers finishing tied for first with the Diamondbacks in the NL West with 87 wins. It thinks the Angels will get 85 wins to take the AL West over an 80-win Oakland team, with the Wild Card coming out of the Central or East (Tigers, Indians, and Red Sox all tied at 91 wins).
Labels: angels, dodgers, indians, predictions, red sox, tigers
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