6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

It's been a while since anything really caught my attention about baseball — the Cubs won the World Series last year, an event that passed without note in these all but abandoned pages; the team will never need to buy another round anywhere in Chicago, and Theo Epstein et al. probably punched their own ticket to Cooperstown. Reversing the curse in two cursed towns is some sort of witch doctory! But with both my native teams two time zones past my now Central Daylight Time bedtime, I find keeping up with the Angels or Dodgers difficult, save on weekends or during day getaway games.

So the game moves on without me, in many ways; the deep detailed looks at various sabermetric aspects (and more, the impressive roster of solid writers) I got at Baseball Prospectus, watering holes like Baseball Think Factory (now enervated thanks to a squabble between founder Jim Furtado and Darren Viola), Jon Weisman's on-again, off-again blogs (Dodger Thoughts, now largely defunct) — all have lost my attention, and that predated my 2015 move to Arkansas. So it's kind of a surprise to see a post that really grabs me, and this one comes from ESPN: "State of the Stat: MLB numbers taking yet another crazy turn" offers some interesting changes lately in baseball. Particularly, home runs:
What pops out is the names of the decade home run leaders for the 1990's and 2000's, Mark McGwire and Alex Rodriguez's, respectively. Neither will make it into Cooperstown as a consequence of steroid use, and more's the pity, especially in A-Rod's case. As with Roger Clemens and Barry bonds, a legitimate first-ballot inductee is being kept out of the Hall largely because of political pressure rather than his actual record.

In some ways, though, the most interesting thing in here is the steady decline in wins by starters:

The piece continues:

The traditional standard of 20 wins remains a high bar, with just a few pitchers getting there each season. There were three 20-game winners in 2016, two in 2015, three in 2014 and one in 2013. The peak for 20-win seasons came in the late '60s and early '70s, when many starters threw a huge number of innings. There were 15 20-game winners in 1969, 14 in 1971, 13 in 1973 (and 1951) and 11 in 1970 and 1974. As the five-man rotation became standard by the 1980s, the 40-game starter became obsolete. Then the complete game neared extinction.

Maybe the 20-game winner is next on the endangered species list.

What would be especially ironic is if Bert Blyleven, who famously was kept out of the Hall for so long because he did not have 300 wins, might instead be an early forebear of ending the win as a pitching stat with any actual value.

Labels: hall of fame, sabermetrics

While only Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez entered the Hall of Fame as players, both Bud Selig and John Schuerholz do so as executives, Selig the commissioner who held baseball labor peace for over two decades. Schuerholz was the general manager of the Braves during the 1990's when they virtually owned the NL East (actually from 1990 to 2007),  and of the Kansas City Royals before that in 1982-1990.

Jeff Bagwell's credentials should have made him an easy first ballot candidate, but steroids rumors delayed his entry by six years. Unlike Jay Jaffe, I'm unconvinced that Tim Raines should be in the Hall, but as with everything, will take his word for it. Finally, Pudge actually did get in on the first ballot, Jay's questions notwithstanding. I take this as a positive sign for other players of the era who may have been tarnished by allegations or actual proof of steroid use. Congratulations to all.

Labels: hall of fame

Per ESPN, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Mike Piazza were the only players voted into the Hall of Fame. Griffey, who is by no means an inner-circle Hall of Famer, garnered a 99% vote, which I presume is mostly a protest at the steroid era. Piazza is the lowest draftee ever to go to Cooperstown, and Griffey the highest (first overall):

While Griffey was selected first in the 1987 amateur draft and became the first No. 1 pick to make the Hall, Piazza was selected by the Los Angeles Dodgers with the 1,390th pick on the 62nd round in 1998. Since the draft started in 1965, the lowest draft pick elected to the Hall was John Smoltz, taken with the No. 574 pick in the 22nd round in 1985.

Update: I should explain a bit on my remarks about Griffey. There's a 30-point JAWS dropoff between Mickey Mantle and Junior, the largest between any two players above the mean. Partly that was from memory, so if you want to disagree based on the fact that he's well above the mean of 70.4 JAWS, feel free to do so.

Labels: dodgers, ex-dodgers, hall of fame, mariners, reds

It is probably not too strong to suggest that Darren Viola's Hall of Fame Ballot Collecting Gizmo — an annual event for a number of years now — has sparked a dialogue about transparency in BBWAA voting that is vastly overdue. That it must be crowdsourced is understandable (at least for a while), as is the humble and necessarily incomplete means by which it operates. I came across a piece today from one Steve Buckley in the Boston Herald which neatly encapsulated many of the problems I have with the process, while somehow managing never to mention the Gizmo (emboldening mine, as always):

Look, I get it: Nobody gets 100 percent of the votes. It’s supposed to have something to do with “tradition,” and something to do with the inconvenient truth that the original Hall of Fame class of 1936 — Ty Cobb! Honus Wagner! Babe Ruth! Christy Mathewson! Walter Johnson! — had no unanimous selections.

But it’s wrong, and it needs to stop. And so for housekeeping purposes, I’ll repeat what I wrote in December of 2012: “Fans should know our selections.” And I’ll also repeat what I wrote in January of 2008: “. . . this absolutely should not be limited to active members of the BBWAA. Retired writers should also be asked to name the names on their ballots.”

...

And if there’s a retired baseball writer out there whose best case for not voting for Martinez is: “I never saw him pitch,” then said baseball writer shouldn’t be voting. Fair, right?

There's a bunch more there, including why we need to shame the anti-steroids voters, and especially the "they all did it" tar-and-featherers. It's one reason why I'm especially pleased to see Buster Olney's surprisingly principled protest empty ballot, even if I think the act is misguided in some wise. There's just no excuse for keeping Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens out of the Hall, and something needs to be done about it, sooner rather than later. Thank you, Darren, for helping to get this out in the open.

Labels: drugs, hall of fame

Rob Neyer has long been one of the sabermetricists' darlings, being as he was a Bill James protegé. The essence of sabermetrics is supposed to be the rationality it brings to the discussion, attempting to actually find how things are (and preferably, quantifying them) rather than merely parroting received wisdom. For that reason, it was not a little incoherent to see his oddly crabbed response to the new BBWAA voting rules for induction to Cooperstown. The main thing changing is that the eligibility period goes down from 15 years to 10 years, with those presently on the ballot who would be in years 11-15 grandfathered in — but none others. This, of itself, may make little difference; as Joe Posnanski recently pointed out, the entirety of the players chosen in years 11-15 since the beginning of the Hall are

1. Bert Blyleven (2011, 14th year)
2. Jim Rice (2009, 15th year)
3. Bruce Sutter (2006, 13th year)
4. Duke Snider (1980, 11th year)
5. Bob Lemon (1976, 12th year)
6. Ralph Kiner (1975, 13th year)
7. Dazzy Vance (1955, 16th year)
8. Gabby Hartnett (1955, 12th year)
9. Rabbit Maranville (1954, 14th year)
10. Bill Terry (1954, 14th year)
11. Harry Heilmann (1952, 12th year)

That's it. You could certainly make a case for Blyleven getting in as the exception that largely proves the rule; Bert's inclusion was mainly due to sabermetric agitation, i.e. the slow and steady erosion of dogma with simple, straightforward, and unimpeachable arguments. Heck, even Rob Neyer himself was obliged to come out and decry Blyleven's omission as "a testament to the stubbornness of the voters who can't see past their own prejudices."

I fear Neyer has succumbed to something very similar with his rant, because his response to the idea that the truncation of eligibility is an attempt to send all the steroid-tainted players into the memory hole is to say, Good:

4. It’s been said this is largely a ploy to get the steroids guys off the ballot sooner. Well, good! Has there been some public good served by having them on the ballot? They get the same support (i.e. not much) from the voters every year, and every year the same voters write the same columns explaining why they did or (mostly) didn’t vote for Bonds, Clemens, and the rest. It’s one thing to have a healthy and spirited debate, but all we’ve been getting is the spirit. It’s not healthy if nobody’s willing to change their minds, and it seems like 98 percent of the minds are made up, if not cast in steel-reinforced concrete.

But weren't you saying exactly the same thing about Blyleven? How can you omit Bonds, the man who owns the single-season and career home run marks (while playing in exceptional pitcher's parks, too)? What of Clemens, with 354 career wins and multiple 20-win seasons, third all time in career WAR, 31st all time in single-season WAR (but the leaderboards are littered with 19th century pitchers), third all time for career strikeouts... the mind boggles.

Strictly as a retreat from a perceived unwinnable war (so to speak), I understand the point, but it also elides the possibility of changing people's minds. Read another way, it amounts to a form of intellectual cowardice: here, let's punt the hard work of changing minds and making the kinds of simple, coherent arguments that will move the tallies, and leave it to...

7. Will the steroid guys ever get in? I believe they will. At some point, the Hall of Fame might come to seem irrelevant, terribly out of touch, if the best players from an entire era aren’t honored in the Hall. I believe that the crimes of that era will eventually be seen contextually, today’s overheated emotions largely drained from the conversation. At which point the Hall of Fame’s various committees will reverse the BBWAA’s collective decisions.

At which point, we have created a "separate but equal" door to the Hall, a sort of Jim Crow imposed by drug prohibitionists, whose cause even now runs out of steam. It represents the triumph of superstition over rationality, and once upon a time, everything that Rob Neyer supposedly stood for.

I close quoting Christina Kahrl's vastly more sensible review of the consequences of this rules change:

All of which makes me ask again the question I always put to myself every time we get on this subject: Whose Hall of Fame is it? Who does it serve?

If you say “the players,” which ones? Those already elected, as often seems the case when you have guys on the various recent iterations of the Veterans Committee keeping players out? Or should it serve those who belong?

If you say “the fans,” here again, who? Today’s fans, or those who enjoyed the players in their heyday? That would seem to ill-serve someone such as Raines, a marquee player for a franchise that no longer plays in Montreal. Or are the fans a proxy for something amorphous, like the history of the game? If so, how do you tell the story of the game’s history by excluding many of the guys who made the biggest impact on the field?

Labels: drugs, hall of fame

Covered in many, many other places (especially Twitter), but Dr. Frank Jobe died at age 88, from causes undisclosed. If there is some reason he is not in the Hall of Fame, I do not know it.

Labels: dodgers, hall of fame

Congratulations to Ron Santo's family, and to Barry Larkin, both of whom were inducted into Cooperstown today. Two years ago, I posted Bill James' concise argument for Santo's inclusion. In Santo's case, an overdue bill gets paid. Here's Al Yellon's thoughts on the matter. I certainly hope that, if the general decline of daily newspapers has had any upside, it is that the sophists who kept Santo out of the Hall are now on the streets looking for jobs (and are without BBWAA credentials).

Labels: cubs, hall of fame, reds

Summer Anne Burton's wonderful series drawing every Hall of Famer continues with Duke Snider.

Labels: ex-dodgers, hall of fame

... and none others (BBWAA). Congrats, Barry; one of these days, another Barry (coffBondscoff) should join you, but I won't be too surprised to find him excluded for strictly spurious reasons.

Labels: hall of fame

Thus rectifying an appalling oversight by the BBWAA.

Santo becomes the 12th major league third baseman to be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, the first elected at the position since Wade Boggs in 2005. Including three selections from the Negro leagues, there are now 15 third basemen in the Hall of Fame. In 15 major league seasons, Santo compiled a .277 lifetime batting average, with 2,254 hits in 2,243 games, while totaling 1,331 runs batted in and 365 doubles.

Santo died a December 3, 2010. This goes a long way toward rectifying the reputation of the Hall, which notoriously underrepresents third basemen.

Labels: cubs, hall of fame

Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar were voted into the Hall of Fame today, with 79.7% and 90% of the ballots, respectively. I would like to congratulate both, and to congratulate Rich Lederer, whose simple, obvious case for Blyleven's induction helped sway so many voters after Blyleven had languished on the ballot for years.

Labels: hall of fame

Bill Ballou's remark is awesome in its thoroughgoing stupidity:

“Why not Blyleven? I don’t vote for many people, in general, for the Hall of Fame, and it comes down to something that happened in 1959 when I was 7. My dad took me to a Red Sox game specifically so I could tell my kids I saw Ted Williams play, and for me, that’s the definition of a Hall of Fame player. And as good as he was, Blyleven does not pass that particular test.”

So, unless your dad took you to the ballpark to experience a player, he shouldn't be in Cooperstown?

Labels: hall of fame

Based on a complex series of tests, Chris Jaffe projects Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar will be voted into the Hall of Fame this year. It's been a longstanding hope of this blog that the former makes it in; I'm less familiar with the case for Alomar.

Labels: hall of fame

Getting better for Bert, but he's only got two more shots at it from the BBWAA, as this is his 13th year of eligibility. Fortunately for Bert, the vote totals make it increasingly likely that he'll get over the top in year 14.

Jay Jaffe, my personal gold standard of Hall eligibility, calls Andre Dawson "not ... worthy of a Hall of Fame vote", largely because of the brief duration of his career peak and the overall low OBP: "his walk totals certainly don't reflect the notion that he was a feared hitter".

Labels: hall of fame

Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice have both been voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame by the BBWAA. Henderson was a lock, and so there is no point discussing his election; congratulations to him. Rice, on the other hand, is a borderline player, and arguably the Hall would be better off without him. Jerry Crasnick details the case against:

Several years ago, Bill James ranked Rice as the 27th best left fielder in history -- two spots behind Roy White -- and called him "probably the most overrated player of the last thirty years.'' Rice never won a Gold Glove, stole 58 bases (in 92 attempts) in his career, and ranks sixth on the all-time grounded-into-double-plays list. His home-road splits also provide fodder for his critics: Rice posted a career .920 on-base slugging percentage at Fenway Park, and a much more pedestrian .789 on the road. While his peak was impressive, he fell of a cliff statistically at age 34 and was out of the game by 36. Some baseball observers believe that former Boston outfielder Dwight Evans has a stronger Hall of Fame case than Rice does. Evans topped out with 10.4 percent of the vote and dropped off the ballot after three years.

Those dreadful road splits (.320/.374/.546 at home, .277/.330/.459 on the road) affected every part of his offense, too. Jay Jaffe's Sports Illustrated article today outlines exactly why Rice is such a tepid candidate: his JAWS score is less than half of Henderson's, and a little more than half of Tim Raines.

Another sad note in this year's balloting was Bert Blyleven's failure to advance his vote totals, receiving 62.7% of the vote, increasing only a fraction of a percentage point from last year's 61.9%. Astonishingly, Henderson only received 94.8% of the votes; what were those other 5.2% thinking?

Update: Henderson's imaginary plaque.

Update 2: Without providing evidence, I have a feeling that the Rev is right: the current wave of Bostonalia drove the Rice bid.

Labels: awards, ex-angels, ex-dodgers, hall of fame

Dodgers Not Pursuing Sabathia — Yet

Now that the winter meetings have started, the Dodgers aren't chasing C.C. Sabathia, just yet, anyway.

Veteran's Committee Elects Joe Gordon To Cooperstown, Snubs Ron Santo (Again)

Well, at least they elected someone. It would have been pretty embarrassing if they hadn't elected anyone; there's a pretty compelling argument that Santo is the best third baseman not in the Hall currently, and the fact that the Veteran's Committee can't see it is just nuts.

Maury Wills was also on the ballot but failed to get the required votes.

MLB Won't Ban Maple Bats

Sanity, oddly enough, reigns, no matter how briefly. Was there ever anything besides anecdotal evidence to support the contention that maple bats shattered more frequently than ash bats? If so, I've never seen it.

Rangers Send Gerald Laird To Detroit For Two Pitchers

Now that's a deal I can understand. The returnees to Texas are Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo, a pair of prospects.

Update: Allegedly the Tigers inquired about Mike Napoli but were rebuffed by a high price tag.

Juan Rivera Garners Tampa Bay Interest

Joe Maddon to Juan's rescue? Well, I'm not surprised; like Seattle, St. Louis, and Toronto, Tampa Bay lately seems to be another repository for former Angels.

It's Go Time For Tony Reagins

C.C. or Teix or nobody, i.e. fish or cut bait, Tony. I agree.

K-Rod Meets With Mets

Bill Plunkett reports that Francisco Rodriguez had a long dinner meeting with the Wilpons Sunday night in Las Vegas.

Dodgers Near Agreement With Casey Blake

Yahoo's Tim Brown reports the Dodgers are near a deal for Casey Blake, alleged to be for three years. Reports over the weekend had the Twins, his only other serious suitor, balking at offering a third year.

Labels: angels, dodgers, hall of fame, mets, rangers, rays, rules, rumors, tigers, trades, twins

Ex-(brief)-Dodger Rickey Henderson and former Angel Mo Vaughn headline the Hall of Fame ballot; other new candidates are Mark McGwire, Jim Rice, Jay Bell, David Cone, Ron Gant, Mark Grace, Jesse Orosco, Dan Plesac, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn and Matt Williams. Holdovers from last year: Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson. Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Tim Raines, Lee Smith and Alan Trammell.

Labels: ex-angels, ex-dodgers, hall of fame

The Baseball Hall of Fame released the candidates to be voted on by the Veterans' Committee, and they are: Dick Allen, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva, Al Oliver, Vada Pinson, Ron Santo, Luis Tiant, Joe Torre and Maury Wills. Santo in my book should be an automatic lock; there is a playing case for Maury Wills, though his managerial career will probably keep him out. Knowing the previous work of the Committee, none of them will get in.

Labels: hall of fame

Win Number One For Lackey: Angels 3, Blue Jays 1

A win in Toronto? Believe it, brother; never mind that Vlad's only hit in the game was a lousy single, or that Garret Anderson didn't get credit for an RBI because he hit into a double play doing it. The man of the hour was John Lackey, getting into and out of trouble but, save for Brad Wilkerson's solo homer in the bottom of the first, gave up nada to earn his first win of the season, and ratcheting down his ERA to a vanishingly small 1.29. Scott Shields and Francisco Rodriguez both got into and weaseled their ways out of bases-loaded jams. Not cool, guys, not cool.

One other not-cool thing to happen during the game: Erick Aybar apparently dislocated a pinky finger. X-rays were negative, but he'll have to see a hand specialist tomorrow. This could work out conveniently if Aybar has to go on the DL, because Chone Figgins could be activated as early as Wednesday.

Speaking of Angels offensive lines, though, it was really interesting to see Mike Napoli end up with an 0-for-0 night at the plate despite four plate appearances. He walked three times (two of those intentional, to get to Sean Rodriguez) and took one for the team when he was hit by a pitch in the top of the eighth. Incredibly, only ten other Angels in history have gone 0-for-0 with four or more plate appearances, the last being Scott Spiezio on May 15, 2003. Mo Vaughn also had it happen to him on July 20, 2000; Vaughn walked four times and was hit by then-Texas starter Darren Oliver.

Yahoo box • Recap

Power Bills: Dodgers 4, Reds 1

A tremendous performance by Chad Billingsley, no doubt helped by the Reds' hacktastic tendencies, and his offense by their porous defense (their .677 DER is worst in the majors). Bills struck out seven, and as much as I like the whiffs, the win is better still; recall he struck out 12 on April 24 but took the loss anyway, and has won only two games so far where he has struck out seven or more, the other being April 30 against the Fish.

Yahoo box • Recap

Kevin Towers Ready To Reach For The Dynamite

... because even he can't stand the stink the Padres are putting up this year:

“We’re bad, no question about it,” Towers said. “There comes a point in time we can’t say, ‘It’s early.’ There’s nothing to lead me to believe – or the fans to believe – we’re going to turn this thing around.”

He promised changes. “Wholesale,” he said. And he waved his hands at the clubhouse, meaning most of the players in it, he had little use for right now.

“I’m certainly not going to watch this for another four months,” he said.

Judging by the stands at Petco Park on Monday night, he’s not alone in that.

I wonder if this means the end of Buddy Black's tenure as manager, too.

Padres Disable Peavy

The Padres have placed starter Jake Peavy on the 15-day DL with a strained and swollen elbow. They called up LHP Joe Thatcher to replace him for the duration.

Jay Jaffe On Piazza's Hall Of Fame Case

A good piece by Jay Jaffe on Mike Piazza's Hall of Fame case:

Piazza’s JAWS case is indeed good, and if it’s not overwhelming, then at the very least it becomes a bit better upon closer inspection. The most recent numbers I have ... show Piazza at 96.2 WARP for his peak and 64.6 for his career, for a JAWS of 80.4. The JAWS standard for Hall of Fame catchers is 98.9/60.8/79.9. So Piazza inches past the overall standard despite being a little short on career value owing to the impact of his awful defense (-154 FRAA, the ninth-worst of any player anywhere). He’s significantly ahead on peak .... Piazza’s .311 EqA is the all-time high for the position. No Hall of Fame catcher has an EqA above .300, though there are several in the .295–.299 range and the positional average is a robust .289. ... Piazza’s 472 Batting Runs Above Average is light years ahead of the rest of the backstop pack. No Hall of Fame catcher has more than Johnny Bench’s 325 BRAA.

Labels: angels, blue jays, dodgers, ex-dodgers, hall of fame, injuries, padres, reds, transactions

Reliever Goose Gossage is the sole 2007 inductee at Cooperstown this year. Bert Blyleven missed again, but the good news is that he's up to 61.9% of the vote. That's up from 47.7% in 2007, and the first time he's polled over 60%. Jim Rice barely missed, garnering 72.2%.

Labels: hall of fame