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Tuesday, July 26, 2005

Pickoff Moves, Lunchtime Edition

A few from BTF Primer to start the day --

Rueter: Start Me Or Trade Me

A simple but immodest demand, really, considering his 10.95 ERA in his last three starts, Kirk Rueter wants to be either traded or started, something the Giants must be sincerely unwilling to do at this point.
"I don't know what's out there, but I'm willing to take a chance and go see," Rueter said. "I'm the same guy I always was. I'm not throwing 75 mph. I would love to start here (with the Giants) and know I'm going to be there every five days. I don't know anybody who loves going back and forth. This has nothing to do with the Giants. I want to win for them more than anything. I just want to pitch."

Rueter has more wins than any left-hander in San Francisco history and, after Barry Bonds, has more tenure than any current Giant. However, after making his 276th start for the team on July 4, when he allowed seven runs over four innings in an 11-10 loss to Cincinnati, he was demoted to the bullpen.

Rueter had a good first relief appearance, allowing one run in five innings against Atlanta on July 18, but was hammered for seven earned runs in 31/3 innings in Saturday's 16-4 loss to Florida.

Stop Changing Pitchers

Al Yellon is upset because Felipe Alou keeps changing pitchers. Five times, in fact, to face a total of five batters. But more, it was another one of those crazy games where the Giants made a brutal mistake:
If you were following the game via the web, it didn't look out of the ordinary:

D. Lee grounded into fielder's choice, T. Walker out at second

This isn't quite right. Lee didn't hit a ground ball; he hit a popup about 30 feet behind Giants SS Deivi Cruz. Cruz let it drop, hoping to catch Lee jogging down the line and get a DP, as Walker had to hold up. Walker was forced at second, but Lee, running hard, was safe at first. It wasn't a case of "infield fly rule" because the ball wasn't in the infield!

... and because the IFR hadn't been called. But that's just... nutty.

Adam Dunn Scouting Expedition Fodder

Those of you joining me at Wednesday's Adam Dunn Scouting Expedition will be pleased to note that Adam has no more idea if he will be traded than we do:
"I wish they'd tell me," Dunn said. "I really do. Nobody has said that to me . . . or anything. I keep getting asked about getting traded and all I can say is, 'I don't know, I really don't know.' "
But the fire sale in Cincy isn't limited to Adam:
First baseman Sean Casey is the subject of an unfounded rumor out of New York that he might be traded to the Mets.

He's heard them.

"Danny Graves (former Reds closer) called me the other day and said, 'Hey, get ready, you're joining us in New York.' He said it is all over the papers and talk radio."

Larry Walker On The DL

The Cards made official what was already fairly well known, and that is that Larry Walker's in no shape to compete, and so will be going on the DL. The Cards have a big ten and a half game lead over the Astros, the second largest lead in the majors for any first place team, so they can afford some slack. Still, it soothes Tony LaRussa at night to know a guy like John Rodriguez can come up and hit like a maniac over that time.
Rodriguez was 8-for-21 (.381 avg.) with two homers and three RBIss in his first six starts He homered off Ben Sheets and Carlos Zambrano, and doubled twice on Saturday against the Cubs' Jerome Williams before leaving because of the injury.

What's Wrong With Casey Kotchman

Assuming Stephen Smith ever expressed an interest in other clubs' farm systems (he hasn't), he might be inclined to tell me to cool it on the Dodger prospects' timetable. I know this because of today's blog entry reminding everyone that Kotchman has had less than the customary 1,500 at-bats usually required of minor leaguers before the fork gets stuck in 'em. Also, he's only 22, one of the youngest players in AAA.
Back on March 5, I compared Casey's numbers as a 21-year old to other power-hitting left-handed hitters of our era.  When you also consider his excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio, Kotchman compared closely to Palmeiro and Tino Martinez.

Yet here we are with increasing calls for the Angels to give up on Kotchman.

Why?

Because he had a terrible first month, and hasn't posted the power numbers some expected (including myself).

Every so often, you catch Stephen being a little coy, and here I think we have another such case. Kotchman has been in AAA this year since April 7, and has had four straight bad months. This isn't just a case of an early-season slump; you have to work to get the terrible numbers he had before last week. He's now hitting .285/.368/.423, a big improvement over the .268/.343/.373 line he was posting just a couple weeks back; not only were his power numbers down, so were his walks.

It's also true that Kotch has been compared to Palmiero and Martinez, as well as Todd Helton, but more recently he's met with comparisons to Mark Grace, a likeness even Mike Scioscia assented to (at least in part). No doubt a good bit of this stems from his sudden drop in power production; aside from his first year, Kotchman has never had a complete season with a SLG under .500, and he only this week got it over .400. All this occured in the context of a hitter's park and league. No surprise, then, that the analysts are starting to circle with the word "suspect".

But -- as Stephen himself e-mailed to remind me, Kotchman's only 22, an age at which Grace had just graduated from college and was in his first pro year. If Kotchman needs 1,500 at bats to get himself started, that pretty much puts him on track for a September, 2006 callup. And for my ongoing impatience with the Dodgers' system, it means it's time to temper expectations a bit.

Update: make the last bit clearer about rational expectations.


Comments:
Your Adam Dunn quotes are a bit misleading as the Danny Graves quote is in reference to Sean Casey.
 
Good point.
 
That play in the Cubs' game was just weird. Aside from the fact that he left the better runner on base, he was assuming Derrek Lee wasn't hustling. Now, there *are* Cubs who wouldn't have hustled, but uh, nobody's accused D-Lee of a lack of effort so far this year...
 

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