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Monday, July 18, 2005 |
Sickels Dodgers Farm Midterms
Missed this when it came out about three weeks ago, but John Sickels did a useful Dodgers Farm review. A lot of Some (happy, now?) bad news about a bunch of different some pitchers, it looks like (Hanrahan, Jackson), and some of the bigger name offensive guys aren't getting it done, either (Loney, Navarro).
Update: I should say Sickels said something nice about the other guys on the list; I shouldn't imply that Sickels is dissing the Dodgers' minor leagues here at all. That's my job; like I've said, forget even the major leagues, wake me when any of these guys get past AA and find consistent success.
Update 7/19: And this is the last comment I'm taking on this subject.
Comments:
Alright, I checked 3 times just to be sure, but I didn't see Hanrahan's name on that list of prospects, also I didn't think that he was a big name anymore anway. The comment on Navarro didn't seem that negative either. Pimental was the only other pitcher that had a negative comment and he wasn't a big name either. Are you sure you weren't just a bit over-eager to report that the Dodger prospects weren't as good as advertised?
# posted by 
: 7/18/2005 01:40:00 PM
: 7/18/2005 01:40:00 PM
He's not on the list, but if you read the comments, he's lost that lovin' feeling. And yes, I am getting sick of hearing about how great the Dodgers farm system is when all their interesting prospects hit AA and stall. Some of the guys are good; but look at where those guys are that he does have nice things to say!
1. Joel Guzman - AA
2. Chad Billingsley - AA
3. Johnathan Broxton - AA
4. Edwin Jackson - demoted to AA
5. James Loney - AA for the second time and struggling with average and power
6. Chuck Tiffany - A Vero Beach
7. Yhency Brazoban - Dodgers, and a 5+ ERA
8. Dioner Navarro - AAA Las Vegas, with "disappointing power"
9. Delwyn Young - AA
10. Russ Martin - AA
Well, I have a day job so I'm not going to go past the top ten. But yeah, there's a number of guys who made the upper tiers of this list who are seemingly stuck at AA.
1. Joel Guzman - AA
2. Chad Billingsley - AA
3. Johnathan Broxton - AA
4. Edwin Jackson - demoted to AA
5. James Loney - AA for the second time and struggling with average and power
6. Chuck Tiffany - A Vero Beach
7. Yhency Brazoban - Dodgers, and a 5+ ERA
8. Dioner Navarro - AAA Las Vegas, with "disappointing power"
9. Delwyn Young - AA
10. Russ Martin - AA
Well, I have a day job so I'm not going to go past the top ten. But yeah, there's a number of guys who made the upper tiers of this list who are seemingly stuck at AA.
Other than jackson and loney, the guys considered elite prospects (guzman, billingsley, broxton, tiffany) have maintained their progress. Meanwhile LaRoche and Martin, and perhaps Orenduff, are putting themselves in that elite territory. Baseball America just put up a midseason top-25, they had Guzman, Billingsley, and LaRoche in the top 12. They also identified Loney and Jackson as dissapointments, but named Martin, Broxton, Tiffany, and Orenduff as rising stars. So by my count as 2 dissapointments (Loney,Jackson) 2 guys who maintained their already elite status (Guzman,Billinglsey) and at least 4 that are contending for top spots:(Martin,Broxton,Orenduff,Tiffany,Denker?,Johnson?,Kuo?,Abreu?,Navarro?)
# posted by : 7/18/2005 03:07:00 PM
: 7/18/2005 03:07:00 PM
Sorry, I don't think the Dodgers system deserves a "love". Maybe "like", but my point is that all these guys seem to hit a wall at AA and halt. The ones who haven't are recent promotees. Put it this way, I'm not about to French kiss Logan White any time soon (a fact that no doubt would comfort him if he knew about it). Let's see some of these terrific kids at the major league level if they're so great.
Look, it's well-established that you have a hard-on for your idea that the Dodger system is over-rated, and I'm not going to dispute that. What I'm saying is that you are really stretching it to try to make this list agree with you based on what Sickels says. I didn't even bring up your extremely poor choice of wording with "a lot of bad news about a bunch of different pitchers"
The least you could do is have your comments have something to do with the actual list and its contents.
The least you could do is have your comments have something to do with the actual list and its contents.
# posted by : 7/18/2005 07:26:00 PM
: 7/18/2005 07:26:00 PM
And Huston Street came up this year.
I expect one player, out of this entire system, ought to be ready after a couple years -- no, strike that, three years -- if the draftees are really as hot as all that. There are going to be superior outliers if things are going as well as all that. And I just don't see that.
BTW, Loney's line in 2005: .274/.355/.389. Last year I could deal because of the medical problems. But this year?
Miller. Jackson. Hanrahan. Not in the 2002 and beyond drafts? Fine. But I'm not convinced these guys are going to be impact players.
I expect one player, out of this entire system, ought to be ready after a couple years -- no, strike that, three years -- if the draftees are really as hot as all that. There are going to be superior outliers if things are going as well as all that. And I just don't see that.
BTW, Loney's line in 2005: .274/.355/.389. Last year I could deal because of the medical problems. But this year?
Miller. Jackson. Hanrahan. Not in the 2002 and beyond drafts? Fine. But I'm not convinced these guys are going to be impact players.
Oh, and I want to add that it might be misleading to call Sickel's article a "Dodgers Farm review". It's a review of the top 20 list he made BEFORE the season started. That list does not represent the current top 20 in the farm very well.
And personally I wouldn't call it useful either, as it didn't say anything we couldn't see from the stats, but that's just me.
And personally I wouldn't call it useful either, as it didn't say anything we couldn't see from the stats, but that's just me.
# posted by : 7/19/2005 01:08:00 AM
: 7/19/2005 01:08:00 AM
CanuckDodger --
(1) We will have to agree to disagree on this one. Adrian Beltre within the Dodgers system is my counterexample, as would be, say, Felix Hernandez within the Mariners' system now, who is almost certain to get a callup this year.
(2) How many guys have that line who DON'T make it? Prospects have good years all the time who later turn into pumpkins. This is especially true of pitchers (viz. Greg Miller, Joel Hanrahan).
There may be some good players in the Dodgers system, but they're going to have to do a lot more to convince me of it.
(1) We will have to agree to disagree on this one. Adrian Beltre within the Dodgers system is my counterexample, as would be, say, Felix Hernandez within the Mariners' system now, who is almost certain to get a callup this year.
(2) How many guys have that line who DON'T make it? Prospects have good years all the time who later turn into pumpkins. This is especially true of pitchers (viz. Greg Miller, Joel Hanrahan).
There may be some good players in the Dodgers system, but they're going to have to do a lot more to convince me of it.
One further comment, CanuckDodger: take a quick gander at Piazza's minor league numbers: it took him four years to get through to the big club, including most of his 1992 season in AAA Albuquerque. This is my point exactly: where are all those supposedly great Dodgers if not in AAA? Shouldn't we be seeing some of them in AAA now? You can call me ignorant all day, but I would be choosing my examples a little better if I were you.
Again, blah, blah, blah, you don't care for the Dodgers system, that's fine, it's a defendable position, but you have yet to defend your obsession with it by stretching the truth of this posting, again where is the "a lot of bad news about a bunch of different pitchers" you might be able to mention 3 pitchers that there is any bad news about, how is that a lot of bad news about a bunch of different pitchers. What does that even have to do with the fact that you believe most of their prospects get stuck at AA?
Again, don't try frame Sickels' posting as consistent with what you think.
Again, don't try frame Sickels' posting as consistent with what you think.
# posted by : 7/19/2005 07:37:00 AM
: 7/19/2005 07:37:00 AM
Chris: you're getting on my nerves here. Read the damn post. I said Sickels was mostly complimentary to the Dodgers players. Buzz off if you can't handle that.
I did read it, and still fail to find where you explain the term a lot of bad news for a bunch of different pitchers or a correction of that language.
Like I said before, I have no problem with your feeling about the Dodger prospects, but I would like to know who these bunches of pitchers with a lot of bad news are.
Like I said before, I have no problem with your feeling about the Dodger prospects, but I would like to know who these bunches of pitchers with a lot of bad news are.
# posted by : 7/19/2005 08:33:00 AM
: 7/19/2005 08:33:00 AM
I should say Sickels said something nice about the other guys on the list; I shouldn't imply that Sickels is dissing the Dodgers' minor leagues here at all.
Enough with the feigned ignorance. Go away.
Enough with the feigned ignorance. Go away.
Most of the prospects on the Jacksonville AA team are doing well enough to be expected to start at AAA next year. Then we would have stacked talents at every level in the minors. It really just takes one more stinking year. Or do you really think 6 top 100 prospects will somehow all turn into pumpkins in a year?
# posted by : 7/19/2005 09:26:00 AM
: 7/19/2005 09:26:00 AM
Noodlemantra -- fine; let's see them do it. What bothers me is the insistence that the 2002 class was so great, yet why aren't there any impact players at AAA from that class yet? And if that's true for the 2002 class, what of the 2003 and 2004 classes?
No, Sanchez, I mean when Schmoll was sent back down to AAA from the Dodgers.
Rushed? No. My claim is there ought to be at least one of them banging down the door. And I don't see it.
Rushed? No. My claim is there ought to be at least one of them banging down the door. And I don't see it.
Rob, I've been analyzing this topic in a little more detail ever since I read one of your initial posts. I've taken a look at the 40-man rosters for the Dodgers, Angels, and Braves so far. For each player, I looked at their progression through the minor leagues primarily noting the time where they became a good major leaguer. I defined a good major leaguer as someone who produced above average performance for their position for a significant period of time. Among those three teams, there are no players drafted under 20 who had a major league impact in their 3rd year after being drafted. There are only 6 players drafted younger than 20 who had an impact in their 4th year after being drafted (John Smoltz, Mike Hampton, Andruw Jones, Rafael Furcal, Vladimir Guerrero, & John Thomson). The median time to a major league impact for players drafted under 20 is 7 years, including high quality players such as Eric Gagne, Milton Bradley, Marcus Giles, and Chone Figgins. I understand your impatience with the system, but, at least so far, the data shows that your concerns are unfounded. If you'd like, I can send you a copy of the Excel spreadsheet with the data I have so far. Let me know.
The median time for players drafted 20 or older is 5 years. This is obviously less relevant for the Dodgers since they have consistently spent top picks on high school players, especially pre-DePodesta in 2002 & 2003.
The median time for players drafted 20 or older is 5 years. This is obviously less relevant for the Dodgers since they have consistently spent top picks on high school players, especially pre-DePodesta in 2002 & 2003.
# posted by : 7/19/2005 11:24:00 PM
: 7/19/2005 11:24:00 PMNewer› ‹Older
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