Monday, July 18, 2005
Sickels Dodgers Farm Midterms
Update: I should say Sickels said something nice about the other guys on the list; I shouldn't imply that Sickels is dissing the Dodgers' minor leagues here at all. That's my job; like I've said, forget even the major leagues, wake me when any of these guys get past AA and find consistent success.
Update 7/19: And this is the last comment I'm taking on this subject.
1. Joel Guzman - AA
2. Chad Billingsley - AA
3. Johnathan Broxton - AA
4. Edwin Jackson - demoted to AA
5. James Loney - AA for the second time and struggling with average and power
6. Chuck Tiffany - A Vero Beach
7. Yhency Brazoban - Dodgers, and a 5+ ERA
8. Dioner Navarro - AAA Las Vegas, with "disappointing power"
9. Delwyn Young - AA
10. Russ Martin - AA
Well, I have a day job so I'm not going to go past the top ten. But yeah, there's a number of guys who made the upper tiers of this list who are seemingly stuck at AA.
The least you could do is have your comments have something to do with the actual list and its contents.
Our prospects are young and developing at an appropriate pace, so I think Rob is sounding awfully tiresome nagging about not getting big league results before they should ever be expected. It's like a little kid in the back seat of a car whining, "Are we there yet?" Logan White has only been drafting since 2002, and it is not the fault of White, DePodesta, or Dan Evans that the Dodgers' farm system before any of them ever worked for the Dodgers was one of the worst in baseball. And how many Angels' prospects drafted since 2002 have made the majors? Zero, that's how many. McPherson was a 2001 draftee and he has just become a regular major leaguer this year.
I expect one player, out of this entire system, ought to be ready after a couple years -- no, strike that, three years -- if the draftees are really as hot as all that. There are going to be superior outliers if things are going as well as all that. And I just don't see that.
BTW, Loney's line in 2005: .274/.355/.389. Last year I could deal because of the medical problems. But this year?
Miller. Jackson. Hanrahan. Not in the 2002 and beyond drafts? Fine. But I'm not convinced these guys are going to be impact players.
So you don't like Loney's current stat line? How about this one:
That was Piazza's stat line for the year when he was Loney's age, 21, only he was NOT in Double A like Loney, he was in Single A at the time.
And personally I wouldn't call it useful either, as it didn't say anything we couldn't see from the stats, but that's just me.
(1) We will have to agree to disagree on this one. Adrian Beltre within the Dodgers system is my counterexample, as would be, say, Felix Hernandez within the Mariners' system now, who is almost certain to get a callup this year.
(2) How many guys have that line who DON'T make it? Prospects have good years all the time who later turn into pumpkins. This is especially true of pitchers (viz. Greg Miller, Joel Hanrahan).
There may be some good players in the Dodgers system, but they're going to have to do a lot more to convince me of it.
Again, don't try frame Sickels' posting as consistent with what you think.
Like I said before, I have no problem with your feeling about the Dodger prospects, but I would like to know who these bunches of pitchers with a lot of bad news are.
Enough with the feigned ignorance. Go away.
Rushed? No. My claim is there ought to be at least one of them banging down the door. And I don't see it.
The median time for players drafted 20 or older is 5 years. This is obviously less relevant for the Dodgers since they have consistently spent top picks on high school players, especially pre-DePodesta in 2002 & 2003.