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Sunday, September 18, 2005 |
Two Games
Angels 5, Tigers 3
Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.Not that this team's going anywhere, but if they do manage to get into the postseason, can somebody please alert Bill Stoneman that he needs to pick up an effective reliever or two? Frankie tries to strike everybody out on sliders outside the zone. When that doesn't work, which these days, is often, he gets shelled. Shields has been brutally overworked, etc. You know the drill.-- Crash Davis, Bull Durham
This team's becoming unwatcheable, and has been since the All Star break. Francisco Rodriguez and Scot Shields are the two main culprits.
P.S.: The Angels had a chaplain? Who knew?
Giants 5, Dodgers 3
Since I see my projection has received critical and skeptical attention, it's probably worth reviewing where we are since I made it.
| Series | Dates | Projected Record | Actual Record | Win Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 9/6-7 | 1-1 | 2-0 | +1 |
| Padres | 9/9-11 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 0 |
| Rockies | 9/12-14 | 3-0 | 1-2 | -2 |
| Giants | 9/15-18 | 2-2 | 1-3 | -1 |
So I'm down a net two games, and it looks like Steve's skepticism was well-founded; this team could easily be on its way to a 90-loss season. Obviously, the biggest miscue was my assumption that Bonds wouldn't be in the lineup, which proved to be helpful for the Giants, though not decisive; the winning run wouldn't be scored until the sixth inning.
If anything, next year should be interesting just to see what will happen in terms of upward regression:
- For J.D. Drew, the Dodgers will get to discover how truly durable he is in center field, assuming the Dodgers don't take a gamble on another year's worth of Bradley.
- Cesar Izturis: was his 2004 a fluke? I'm thinking it is, and I would be surprised if DePodesta believes otherwise. Oscar Robles isn't a starter, no matter what he's done this year; he's too close to the point of his career where age-related collapse happens. Both of these guys are likely to have Alex Cora-style, mercurial performance changes.
- The Dodgers still lack a useful left fielder; Jayson Werth is not that guy.
- The bullpen needs a stem-to-stern cleaning out, and will likely lose the useful piece of Elmer Dessens to some fool team who thinks he can start for them.
- Nothing will fix the 2006 Dodgers rotation. Too many mediocre-to-bad guys signed for too long to bad contracts.
Update: Forgot-to-Mention-It-Dep't: this game guarantees a losing season.
Update 9/19: Another prediction I was wrong about: the Dodgers didn't fall out of contention in some vague technical sense, in that their elimination number remains nine. The Padres are 8-8 so far this month, exactly .500 as I expected, but the Dodgers are 5-10 on the month, which means I'm aghast that they still haven't been eliminated. A winning record by the Pads would be all it takes to evict the Dodgers.
St. Louis became the first team in any division to clinch, Saturday after beating the Cubs.
Comments:
Rob;
The diehards haven't even shoveled dirt on the 2005 season and you're already spouting negatives about 2006. Unfortunately, you're probably right. Depo has to get a clue before things can really improve.
Bradley is gone and we are well to be done with him.
Gagne's arm may never be back long term if he doesn't get off the juice.
The coaching staff dislikes DePodesta (some, intensely) and Tracy will have to be induced to stay which (staying) may or may not be a good thing. The one hangup may be the one week window he has to make a decision.
We're likely to see another batch of new faces next season so I hope names go back on the uniforms.
Attendance figures are dropping by as much as 20,000 game for game vs. last season, so maybe McCourt will see the value of fielding a better product regardless of payroll.
All things to look forward to.
Rick
The diehards haven't even shoveled dirt on the 2005 season and you're already spouting negatives about 2006. Unfortunately, you're probably right. Depo has to get a clue before things can really improve.
Bradley is gone and we are well to be done with him.
Gagne's arm may never be back long term if he doesn't get off the juice.
The coaching staff dislikes DePodesta (some, intensely) and Tracy will have to be induced to stay which (staying) may or may not be a good thing. The one hangup may be the one week window he has to make a decision.
We're likely to see another batch of new faces next season so I hope names go back on the uniforms.
Attendance figures are dropping by as much as 20,000 game for game vs. last season, so maybe McCourt will see the value of fielding a better product regardless of payroll.
All things to look forward to.
Rick
# posted by 
: 9/19/2005 06:16:00 AM
: 9/19/2005 06:16:00 AM
He is. However, he has an "opt out" clause in which he has one week after the end of the season to exercise. If he doesn't, he stays unless the Dodgers want to pay him off to leave.
Rick
Rick
# posted by : 9/19/2005 12:04:00 PM
: 9/19/2005 12:04:00 PM
Well, however it plays out, I think we can all agree that Drew is a Dodger for the full term of his five-year contract.
You mean he won't opt for Free Agency after two years????? He is definitely smarter than he looks.
Rick
Rick
# posted by : 9/19/2005 03:49:00 PM
: 9/19/2005 03:49:00 PM
Each named player, followed by their rank at respective position:
J.D. Drew: 31.2 VORP, 10th @ RF
Adrian Beltre: 14.0 VORP, 21st @ 3B
Steve Finley: -6.7 VORP, 68th @ CF
Even injured, Drew is clearly a superior player. Beltre appears near such notables as Brandon Inge, and trails his part-time replacement, Antonio Perez. Finley appears ahead of only Marquis Grissom. Beltre clearly has some value; Finley is clearly done.
J.D. Drew: 31.2 VORP, 10th @ RF
Adrian Beltre: 14.0 VORP, 21st @ 3B
Steve Finley: -6.7 VORP, 68th @ CF
Even injured, Drew is clearly a superior player. Beltre appears near such notables as Brandon Inge, and trails his part-time replacement, Antonio Perez. Finley appears ahead of only Marquis Grissom. Beltre clearly has some value; Finley is clearly done.
1) If you disagree with the metric, come out and say so. Essentially, that's where I think this argument lies, or most of it. Because VORP is position-dependent (it's a heck of a lot easier to get a good corner outfielder than a power-hitting shortstop), my comparison isn't entirely fair. But that's why I ranked all of them against players at their same position. By Win Shares, this would be
J.D. Drew: 14 WS, 40th amongst outfielders
Adrian Beltre: 13 WS, 14th @ 3B
Steve Finley: 5 WS, 112th @ OF
Hardball Times doesn't distinguish between outfield positions, which makes this tough to reconcile. Nonetheless, just glancing at the list, it's pretty clear that the majority are corner men.
Second, your case that Drew is easily injured still fails to comprehend that it wasn't his knee that sidelined him. It's one thing to fault DePodesta for an injury that was foreseeable; it's another to fault him for something like a broken wrist because of a bad pitch. Now, granted, that broken wrist could presage a significant decline in value a la Nomar, but again, you'd have to show that somehow DePo knew this was going to happen.
Finally, how would outbidding the M's for the dubious services of Adrian Beltre have helped? To contend, the Dodgers need the 2004 version of Beltre, not his 2001-2003 performances; it looks like the latter is what showed up for Team Frappucino. Maybe he gets to a couple more balls than the seven dwarves, but it's home runs killing the Dodger rotation, not an inability to field ground balls. Beltre won't help with balls even Willie Mays couldn't get to.
J.D. Drew: 14 WS, 40th amongst outfielders
Adrian Beltre: 13 WS, 14th @ 3B
Steve Finley: 5 WS, 112th @ OF
Hardball Times doesn't distinguish between outfield positions, which makes this tough to reconcile. Nonetheless, just glancing at the list, it's pretty clear that the majority are corner men.
Second, your case that Drew is easily injured still fails to comprehend that it wasn't his knee that sidelined him. It's one thing to fault DePodesta for an injury that was foreseeable; it's another to fault him for something like a broken wrist because of a bad pitch. Now, granted, that broken wrist could presage a significant decline in value a la Nomar, but again, you'd have to show that somehow DePo knew this was going to happen.
Finally, how would outbidding the M's for the dubious services of Adrian Beltre have helped? To contend, the Dodgers need the 2004 version of Beltre, not his 2001-2003 performances; it looks like the latter is what showed up for Team Frappucino. Maybe he gets to a couple more balls than the seven dwarves, but it's home runs killing the Dodger rotation, not an inability to field ground balls. Beltre won't help with balls even Willie Mays couldn't get to.
Drew was a panic move in response to Beltre leaving. DePo figured Boras would shop Beltre, but assumed the Dodgers would have the best offer on the table. Instead, Boras got the Mariners to grossly over-pay. That left the Dodgers dying a bat and with J.D. Drew the best bat on the market.
'06 is a straight re-building year. My guess is that they have dealt Kent for prospects by the GM meetings. Every player will come into Spring Training with their name written in pencil.
'06 is a straight re-building year. My guess is that they have dealt Kent for prospects by the GM meetings. Every player will come into Spring Training with their name written in pencil.
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