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Friday, November 18, 2005 |
Angels 2006 ZiPS Projections
Dan Szymborski (wow, I actually spelled it right on the first try!) has his 2006 ZiPS projections up at BTF. You may recall that both here and at the sadly defunct Fourth Outfielder we had a look at their projections for Dallas McPherson, alongside John Sickels' projection system. Let's go back and review, shall we?
So it turns out that everyone was overly optimistic about Dallas. Now, how this will work out for the Angels' regulars who aren't rookies is another matter, but it's worth a look-see.System AB H 2B 3B HR BB K BA/OBP/SLG SB CS =============================================================== JSPS-2 445 118 24 5 22 36 115 .265/.320/.490 6 4 PECOTA 324 88 19 2 16 36 98 .272/.351/.496 5 2 ZiPS 501 138 26 6 27 47 153 .275/.341/.513 14 8 Actual 205 50 14 2 8 14 64 .244/.295.449 3 3
Comments:
but i think the factor that people were overly optimistic about was his health, which seems particularly difficult to predict. i get the feeling that none of the projections would have been so far off if dallas didn't have any injury problems.
Hard to say, Vishal. You can't like that he's increased his strikeouts at every level. Usually that's a terrible predictor. He really needs to get those under control.
I picked Dallas McPherson for my fantasy team based on those Zips. What a bust. But I do think the bust was mostly (thought not all) injury related. He could be a good sleeper pick this year.
I've neevr heard of a bone spur on the hip-if it solves all of those problems being the rare thing and all, who knows, all of the hype may come around - but the biggest caveat with D-MAc is his age, he is four months older than Hank Blalock - it is 2006 or bust.
# posted by 
: 11/18/2005 11:06:00 PM
: 11/18/2005 11:06:00 PM
you don't think it's likely that a hip/back injury would make it more difficult to make contact and generate power? i'd withhold judgement till i saw some more at-bats and a stretch of good health. are there any reports that about his rehab/recovery so far this offseason?
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