Monday, January 09, 2006 |
Bryan Smith On WTNY Top 75 Prospects, Honorable Mention Division
Erick Aybar - SS - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 22 (AAA)Introduction: Back in 2003, things were looking good for Mr. Aybar. As a teenager he had posted a .794 OPS in the Midwest League, also stealing 32 bases at a 78% clip. The Angels preferred him to Alberto Callaspo up the middle, and he was seen as the Angels shortstop of the future. Now, that is simply not the case. This is not for lack of trying, as Aybar's play has been consistent, but for his organization-mates. The Angels have signed Orlando Cabrera to a long-term deal, and behind Aybar is Brandon Wood, one of the game's top prospects. A move to second wouldn't do much good, as Howie Kendrick has him blocked there. It seems as if there are two outcomes for Aybar: a super-utility career in the Chone Figgins mold, or a trade.
Skillset/Future: At every stop in his pro career, Aybar has hit at least .300. His OPS has always been over .790. He has always struck out in less than 16% of his at-bats. However, Aybar's stock has been gradually slipping since its 2003 peak. Why? First, his baserunning has seemingly worsened, as Erick is just 100/159 the last two seasons. He also hasn't gained a hint of discipline, giving his on-base percentage a ceiling of about .375, and likely a home around .330-.350. It's likely that Aybar's SLG numbers will come down as well in the future, since the number is fairly triple-dependent. There is likely some team out there who will confuse Aybar for a leadoff hitter, but really, a Tony Womack-career is his destiny.
Matt Kemp - OF - Los Angeles Dodgers - 21 (AA)
Introduction: With so many prospects in the system, we would understand if Dodger prospects got lost in the shuffle. However, despite their depth, few players made an impression on Dodger brass this season like Matt Kemp. While Andy LaRoche was dominating in Vero Beach, battling Brandon Wood for the minor league home run lead, Matt Kemp was quietly the VB Dodgers second-best hitter. Once LaRoche moved up to the Southern League, Kemp had the responsibility of hoisting the team on his shoulders. And the former sixth-round pick continued to impress, through all this, showing athleticism that is second to none in the system.
Skillset/Future: This is Kemp's most significant strength. His athleticism. At 6-4, Kemp has a frame built for power and a throwing arm, but also has speed that produced 23 steals and a lot of range in the outfield. He should settle in right field, where Kemp has Gold Glove potential if he properly refines his skills. He also has the power to hit at the position, though the power he showed in 2005 was likely enhanced by the Vero Beach environment. In the Majors, he profiles as a possible 25/25 player. To have All-Star potential, Kemp must learn to walk more, a trait that has just stayed still in two years.
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