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Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Pickoff Moves

Today's Birthdays

Bill Bergen BRO b. 1878, played 1904-1911, d. 1943-12-19. The worst major league hitter in history with more than 2,500 at bats (career .170 average), he must have been one hell of a defensive catcher to make up for it.

Bobby Clark CAL b. 1955, played 1979-1983. Stop me if you've heard this story (or one remarkably like it) before: hit 35 dingers and 111 RBIs in the Texas League in 1978 — and a grand total of seventeen over a five-year span for the Angels. He was even 23 when he was in AA, not a bad age for that level. One reason why I find myself decreasingly excited about some of the Angels' prospects.

Charlie Malay BRO b. 1879, played 1905, d. 1949-09-18

Darrell May CAL,ANA b. 1972, played 1996-1997. Garbage lefty who, through last year, somehow stayed employed despite consistently awful results (only once in his career did he post an ERA+ over 100), he played with the Angels for parts of two seasons as a waiver wire pickup — and later a release. The fact that he played three years for the Royals tells you just how awful that club has been; so far as I know, he is looking for a job, as Cincinnati Reds AAA farm team Louisville Bats released May on June 2, this following an unsuccessful NRI spring with the Twins.

Gene McCann BRO b. 1876, played 1901-1902, d. 1943-04-26

Roster Notes

NL West: No Longer The Worst

Says Tony Jackson:
Barely two months into the new season, the division has shown improvement. The only question is whether anyone takes it seriously.

Consider: Of the five teams in the NL West, four are at least one game above .500. The lone exception, the Colorado Rockies, got off to a sizzling start before slowing down, and even they entered Monday's action at a salvageable 30-32.

Each of the five clubs has a winning record against the NLCentral, pegged before the season as baseball's deepest division.

Four clubs reached the one-third mark of their seasons (54 games) with records at least two games better than they were at the same point last year. The Padres, who were four games worse, were the only exception, and even that was the result of a bad start before they got hot and won 21 of 31 games. Colorado has improved by nine games.

All of which makes one fact clear: 82 wins won't get it done this year.

"All that will do is enable you to plan your vacation to start right away after Oct. 1," Dodgers manager Grady Little said.

Maybe Jackson should talk to Nick Peters of the Sacramento Bee, who thinks the badness has returned: the highflying Diamondbacks are on a seven-game skid, the Rockies have collapsed (as usual), and only the Dodgers and Snakes have winning records at home.

Bischeff: Angels Send In The Clowns

Steve Bischeff says the Angels are making a huge mistake by sending Jered Weaver down to make room for the dubiously effective Bartolo Colón:
But wait a minute. Isn't this a team dangling by its fingernails at the bottom of the AL West? Isn't this a club struggling to squeeze out any victories it can? And hasn't Weaver easily been its most effective starter in the past few weeks?

The goal should be to keep the pitcher who makes you the best baseball team, shouldn't it?

Apparently not. Not when you've got a couple of other starting pitchers with shaky stats but huge contracts. Not when you've paid one guy $8 million for this season and extended another for three more years at a gaudy $28.5 million.

...

Colon carried this staff a year ago and, if healthy, has earned the right to ease back in as soon as he is ready.

But sending out "Little Weaver," as he's known in the Angels clubhouse, would be crazy.

Unless, of course, there is an ulterior motive. Unless the Angels don't want to devalue any of their established starters while they are quietly trying to trade one of them for the much-needed bat they should have acquired in the offseason.

No one in the organization will admit that's what is happening, but it's the only thing that seems to make any sense.


Comments:
No one at the Register will admit that Bisheff wears a really awfull toupee, but that's the only thing that seems to make sense.
 
You didn't quote the part of the article where it said that the starter the Angels are rumored to be shopping is Santana.

That better not be true.
 
That's because that's old news.
 
Missed the bullet point yesterday. And I'm glad I did.

That's a horrible trade.

I'd like to believe it's not true, but this is the organization that has decided it's better to get Jeff Weaver starts than Jered, and it's better to get Erstad at-bats than MacPherson, so I guess anything is possible.

While dealing Santana would free up a slot this year, you have another one to fill after the crappier Weaver "fulfills" his contract. Saunders looks to have promise, but I would hope the Angels aren't assuming he's an adequate replacement for Santana next season and assuming that Santana and Escobar stay healthy.
 
That would Colon and Escobar staying healthy.
 
The teeth-gnashing going on over Jered Weaver assumes (1) he will continue to be better than any other pitcher on the Angels staff, (2) he has nothing to learn at the minor league level, and (3) the non-Little-Weaver Angels' rotation will continue to be healthy and/or effective. All three of those assumptions are rather rickety; my opinion is that Jered is just a time bomb waiting for Jeff II to happen, Jered still is getting too many skyball outs for his own good, and Colon will still prove himself basically useless at the major league level if his most recent AAA start was any indication.
 
re: the sac bee piece (the mild mild west?)...

so jim tracy is an objective observer, eh? sounds to me like he's still making excuses.

For an objective view of the mild, mild West, we turned to the outsider who probably knows the tepid division best: Pirates manager Jim Tracy, sacked by the Dodgers one year after winning the division title in 2004.

"I really believe the division is better, but we've played all of them and I don't see any one team that's going to run off with it," said Tracy... "The Dodgers have (closer) Eric Gagne back, and that's a huge chip to have late in the season with playoffs on the line."


that is to say, i was fired because i didn't have eric gagne.
 
Rob, I hear your points, but I disagree to some extent.

1) Yes, there is some assumption that Weaver will continue to throw well. But more importantly, he is currently your best starter. Maybe that changes tonight, but in the meantime it's ludicrous to demote the guy who's givng you best the chance to win every time he pitches.

2) His final run at AAA sure seemed to demonstrate he had nothing left to learn in the minors. You have previously argued the same. (I have no idea how to embed a link, but see 5/25 for example). In fact, I think you can make an argument that he risks regression by going back to AAA.

3) I don't think the complaints about Jered assume the health of the rotation. He will be back some day. But there's no reason the team should be missing out on his starts in the meantime.

Moreover, it's this preposterous talk of trading Santana that assumes long-term health for Colon and Escobar. Hopefully, this is just a baseless rumor.

The fact that you suggest that Jered might, if things go terribly awry, become his brother tells us who should lose their spot in the rotation. If the argument against Jered is that he might at some point be as awful as a current starter, maybe it's that current starter who doesn't need a spot in the rotation right now.

I agree that Weaver giving up the flyball is scary. But he also K's with enormous regularity.

Nevertheless, I would suggest the Angels not send down a guy with a sub-2.00 ERA on the theory that he may have bad outings at some point in the future. The wiser course would be to start the guy currently getting it done.

All this with the caveat that he may get tagged tonight, but I'd still keep him.
 
Frankly, this discussion will be moot in a few weeks. Colon is so obviously not healthy. If he can strike out but one batter over seven innings at AAA, you know that the velocity is still not back. And at this point, with all of the rest & rehab he's had, it's not going to come back without an extended rest period, and he might just need a surgical intervention.

Colon will not make another ten starts this year.

Meanwhile, sending Weaver the Younger down for this brief interlude is really not that big of a deal. Teams do that all the time: call up a guy from AAA to make a couple of starts while a regular rotation member is injured, & send him back down regardless of results when the vet returns.

The only reason this is even an issue is because Weaver the Elder has been so bad, and the Younger so good.

What might make the most sense, from a purely on-the-field perspective, is to send three-Gs (a/k/a Kevin Gregg) to SLC, move Escobar to the bullpen, and go with a rotation of Santana, WTY, Lackey, Colon & WTE.

It's also possible that they demote WTE to the 'pen and send Gregg down, and keep WTY in the rotation.

But the Angels are going to find out very soon that Bart just isn't right. I think it will be obvious after no more than three starts, but I figure that it will take them a bit longer to figure it out b/c Colon will proclaim himself healthy after the first few rough outings. I think the over/under on how many starts he'll make is 10, and I'm taking the under.
 
I haven't heard anyone mention what I think might be the real reason to send Weaver back down: they called him up early enough so that he's likely going to be super-2 arbitration eligible in a couple of years. If they send him back down for a few weeks, however, there's a good chance he might fall out of that category, and they'd save quite a few (million) bucks down the line.

Whether they should do that or not, I suppose, depends on whether the Angels think this season is salvagable or not.
 
Matthew -- the problem with that is that Escobar is still your second-best starter by ERA.

Ken -- I seem to remember you coming over here and suggesting that earlier. It's probably reasonable, but Arte hasn't been shy with the dollars if it contributes to winning (and sometimes, even despite that).
 
Ken-

What's confusing is that sending Weaver down for future arbitration purposes signals a disinterest in winning this year.

Meanwhile, playing Erstad only makes any sense if they are trying to win this year (I don't think he helps the Angels do that, but if you're playing for 2007 you HAVE to start MacPherson every day and see if you can rely upon him in the future, while Erstad is almost certainly gone in '07).
 
Rob,

You've pointed out recently that Escobar's K/9 has gone down, and his last couple of starts have been less than stellar...

Let's assume, for purposes of discussion, that Colon is actually healthy and will be in the rotation for the rest of the year. The Angels need some help in the 'pen: Donnelly is just about finished, while Carrasco & Romero aren't doing much to inspire confidence. Kelvim is definitely the best in-house solution for the bullpen. Plus, I'd trust Escobar in the bullpen ahead of both WTE and three-Gs.
 
Seems that everyone has demoted Jered Weaver except for the Angels. Believe it when it actually happens. Colon has had three lackluster rehab starts. And even if he gets activated, Jered could stick because someone else got hurt.

What's so bad about having six solid starters? It's just that the sixth one has to stay fresh in Triple-A.
 

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