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Thursday, July 20, 2006 |
No Love For Kendry
Somebody somewhere posted something about Bryan Tsao's article regarding holes in AL club rosters among the contenders, and plucks Kendry Morales out of that list:
At the beginning of the season, the Angels appeared to have solved their recent history of first base woes. Former top prospect Casey Kotchman had posted an .836 OPS after being given regular starts at first base late in the season, and was blossoming into a major league regular. Then the season started, and Kotchman put up an anemic .436 OPS before hitting the disabled list with mononucleosis. After finding Robb Quinlan's efforts wholely unacceptable, the Angels turned to Cuban defector Kendry Morales to hold the fort. Now, with Kotchman's rehab being put on hold and general manager Bill Stoneman's public reluctance to deal prospects, it looks like Morales will have to be the answer for the surging Angels.Well, okay, he's not hitting like a major leaguer, but c'mon, he was hardly expected to when he's had fewer than 1,300 professional at bats and not even 200 plate appearances in the majors. No, he's not Konerko or even the September, 2005 version of Casey Kotchman, but some allowances have to be made. Moreover, the kid's had 15 walks to 24 strikeouts in 174 at bats, a K rate that Dallas McPherson might kill for, and is hitting .357/.438/.429 over his last seven games; who knows but that he's actually turning a corner. Shall we lay off the hating for just a little while?Still, as the saying goes, if Morales is the answer, then the question is probably something more like, "Who can we throw out there at first base to keep throws from the shortstop from going into the dugout?" than "Where can we find a quality major league first baseman?" Morales, who was hitting an underwhelming .319/.369/.472 at hitter-friendly Triple-A Salt Lake City, doesn't appear ready to hit like a major league first baseman, leaving Angels fans hoping for a speedy recovery from Kotchman, whose return could be the difference in a tight and yet still uninspiring AL West race.
Comments:
Guys who are in the majors one fricking year after they are signed and are hitting .256 get an automatic pass. If Moseley had a 4.50 ERA his first time out after coming up following a one-year stint in the minors in which he was lights-out after some adjustment period, he, too, would be getting the love. Make sense?
Not only is he hitting over .250 in the majors one year after being signed, keep in mind that he didn't play baseball for a year beforehand, either, as he had been banished from the Cuban national team in early 2004 out of fears (justified, apparently) that he would defect.
So the guy sits around not playing for a year, finally arrives in the U.S., and is hitting .256 in the majors less than a year later. He definitely gets a pass.
So the guy sits around not playing for a year, finally arrives in the U.S., and is hitting .256 in the majors less than a year later. He definitely gets a pass.
# posted by 
: 7/20/2006 04:30:00 PM
: 7/20/2006 04:30:00 PM
Ok, then let's say Moseley isn't worthy of a pass but Morales is. What about Jered Weaver and his flyball rate? Shouldn't he get a pass on that considering his performance and the fact that he was only signed one year ago and was lights out in the minors after an adjustment period?
Josh: my concerns with Weaver are that
1) he is a Weaver
2) he has yet to face any team twice
3) he has mostly faced undistinguished offenses
In other words, I'm skeptical that his early outings represent his true level of talent. In other words, exactly the same issue I've had with Kendry, only in reverse.
1) he is a Weaver
2) he has yet to face any team twice
3) he has mostly faced undistinguished offenses
In other words, I'm skeptical that his early outings represent his true level of talent. In other words, exactly the same issue I've had with Kendry, only in reverse.
I could see the 2nd and 3rd arguments (but that still doesn't explain why you are essentially giving Kendry a free pass for mediocre performance, but harp on Jered for superb performance). But, come on, why is his being a Weaver have anything to do with it? By that argument, Jose Molina should be as slow as molasses, when he obviously isn't (not that he is fast). Or that Aaron Boone has 40 home run potential. Or that Tony Gwynn Jr. is going to get his first major league hit 24 years to the day after his dad's first ML hit (ok, bad example).
I could see the 2nd and 3rd arguments (but that still doesn't explain why you are essentially giving Kendry a free pass for mediocre performance, but harp on Jered for superb performance)
I'm going to repeat myself one last time here, Josh, because it seems to be utterly lost on you, and quite frankly, I'm getting to the point where accusations of being disingenuous are merited.
Kendry has a track record of stumbling as he reached each higher level and then improving to be a useful part.
Jered Weaver has blown past all his minor league competition and looked impressive following his first weak season in the minors. But I believe that Jered's brother Jeff had a similar college record (albeit in a slightly weaker league), a similar first turn through the majors accompanied by all kinds of praise -- and was never able to adjust following the second half of that year, certainly not to the level of being anything besides a mediocrity. In short, I want to see Jered clear the hurdles that his brother never did in a long enough period of time for me to feel comfortable that he's actually fulfilling the promise he had as the inaugural Roger Clemens Award winner.
I'm going to repeat myself one last time here, Josh, because it seems to be utterly lost on you, and quite frankly, I'm getting to the point where accusations of being disingenuous are merited.
Kendry has a track record of stumbling as he reached each higher level and then improving to be a useful part.
Jered Weaver has blown past all his minor league competition and looked impressive following his first weak season in the minors. But I believe that Jered's brother Jeff had a similar college record (albeit in a slightly weaker league), a similar first turn through the majors accompanied by all kinds of praise -- and was never able to adjust following the second half of that year, certainly not to the level of being anything besides a mediocrity. In short, I want to see Jered clear the hurdles that his brother never did in a long enough period of time for me to feel comfortable that he's actually fulfilling the promise he had as the inaugural Roger Clemens Award winner.
Rob, there is an undercurrent in your skepticism of WTY based strictly on his lineage, and I find it rather curious. Why should WTY be so much more likely to be his brother than Mike & Greg Maddux, or Rick & Paul Reuschel - two sets of pitching brothers with remarkably different careers between each brother.
I think questioning him because he is a Weaver is of questionable logic.
I think questioning him because he is a Weaver is of questionable logic.
# posted by : 7/20/2006 11:01:00 PM
: 7/20/2006 11:01:00 PM
The concern with WTY is that he won't be able to make the adjustments once the league catches up to him. That is, it's principally a matter of psychological adjustment to failure, something his brother wasn't able to deal with; it wasn't that his stuff wasn't effective, it's that he never dealt with others seeing through him well. That's plenty of reason to want to see a year of him before we decide on how good he is.
(A similar sample size problem awaits Napoli, by the way.)
(A similar sample size problem awaits Napoli, by the way.)
So they're brothers. They're also two separate and completely different human beings. There's no reason for them to have the same personality (in fact, many siblings are often quite different). And there's a significant age difference; it's not as if they grew up playing together (in fact, this was the first time they were ever on the same team). I would expect them to have a lot less in common than other brothers who are closer in age.
There's no reason to think that they will respond to adversity in the same way simply because they're closely related. At least, I don't see any reason to think that; maybe someone with a PhD. in pscychology has some thoughts on the subject.
There's no reason to think that they will respond to adversity in the same way simply because they're closely related. At least, I don't see any reason to think that; maybe someone with a PhD. in pscychology has some thoughts on the subject.
# posted by : 7/20/2006 11:56:00 PM
: 7/20/2006 11:56:00 PM
If you read the feature on the two Weavers in ESPN the Mag by Eric Neel, you know that the two aren't very much alike at all. The article pointed out how confident WTY is in comparison to his older brother.
# posted by : 7/21/2006 05:05:00 AM
: 7/21/2006 05:05:00 AM
Anon -- right, and if you read the newspaper reports from Detroit at the time, you would have read very similar words being printed about brother Jeff.
Another thing: Jeff fell apart following his second time up against the Twins. Was it mere coincidence that Jered wasn't able to go against the Indians, the first team he would have seen twice? It will be interesting to see him against Kansas City, therefore.
Another thing: Jeff fell apart following his second time up against the Twins. Was it mere coincidence that Jered wasn't able to go against the Indians, the first team he would have seen twice? It will be interesting to see him against Kansas City, therefore.
You are questioning someone's psychological makeup because they had a lingering irritation in their pitching arm? Not only that, but it was the Angels that told him he wasn't going to start, presumabably because they think it is more important for him not to risk more harm to his pitching arm than to squeeze one more start out of him. I suppose the tendonitis was psychosomatic and both Weaver and the Angels management knew it and it was because he was going to face a team a second time.
Gee, Josh, you're awfully good at putting words in my mouth. Maybe the Angels didn't want him to face the Indians. Maybe it's nothing but a case of elbow soreness.
Sorry Rob, but I have to side with Matthew on the Jered Weaver issue. If you have kids, Rob, you KNOW that they can be as different as night and day. If you don't have kids, perhaps you should stop including Jeff in your analysis - it makes you look silly to those that do have children. It's not a valid analysis.
Look, I know having a big league dad or brother can affect performance - pressure to perform, or, more likely, a comfort level in a major league locker room. But that's different than saying he's going to behave and react like his brother just because they're related.
Rob, for a guy who does a wonderful job analyzing, your concerns are legitimate that Jered has a long ways to go before annointing him Savior. He won't likely continue to post a sub 2.00 ERA, and he may even get lit up on occasion. But don't expect that based on his bloodlines - expect it because he's a YOUNG MAJOR LEAGUE PITCHER...that's all...
Look, I know having a big league dad or brother can affect performance - pressure to perform, or, more likely, a comfort level in a major league locker room. But that's different than saying he's going to behave and react like his brother just because they're related.
Rob, for a guy who does a wonderful job analyzing, your concerns are legitimate that Jered has a long ways to go before annointing him Savior. He won't likely continue to post a sub 2.00 ERA, and he may even get lit up on occasion. But don't expect that based on his bloodlines - expect it because he's a YOUNG MAJOR LEAGUE PITCHER...that's all...
# posted by : 7/21/2006 11:39:00 AM
: 7/21/2006 11:39:00 AM
What I expect is to find out how far down the downside risk is. As for bloodlines, I'm more interested in the behavioral side of the nature/nurture question.
Unfortunately, his downside could be major shoulder trouble. Let's hope not. If we're going to talk genes, though, one could point out that Jeff has never had injury problems.
Elbow injuries, I can take. Shoulder problems, however, are a much deeper concern...
Elbow injuries, I can take. Shoulder problems, however, are a much deeper concern...
# posted by : 7/21/2006 01:55:00 PM
: 7/21/2006 01:55:00 PMNewer› ‹Older
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