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Monday, April 30, 2007

Kissing Your Third Cousin, Twice Removed: Angels 3, Royals 1

Why is it that the Angels never seem to get the blowout wins they should get against this perennial sad-sack squad? Perhaps I underestimate the Royals; they had their moments last year. They swept the Tigers in their final season series, the last three games of 2006, beat Oakland on the road, and took two of three from the Red Sox in Boston.

But that said, the team also suffered through 13-, 11-, and 8-game losing streaks on their way to a 62-100 season. The Royals, whatever short-term competence they may exhibit, are a bad team. They are bad despite the emergence of players such as Mark Teahen and a revivified Zack Greinke, though the most recent Baseball Prospectus credits a series of relatively small but eventful moves under new GM (and former Atlanta AGM) Dayton Moore as perhaps marking the beginning of a turnaround in the franchise's fortunes:

In his first season with the Dodgers, Perez flirted with Cy Young levels of greatness, winning four of his first five starts, a sequence he finished with a 1.66 ERA, and was one out away from pitching a quality start in the first game of that stretch. He lost two more (one of those a quality start), and then proceeded to win five of his next six starts, getting a no-decision in one. Three of his victories were complete games, including an April 26, 2002 shutout of the Cubs.

It turned out it was all an illusion caused by an astonishingly low .255 BABIP. As we have since learned with some of his neighbors in that statistic like Ramon Ortiz (.241), and to a lesser degree with that year's Cy Young Barry Zito (.251), such performances tend not to be repeatable. So from looking like a potential left-handed ace at only 25, he started to decline. Shoulder tendinitis ate into his playing time, and despite re-upping with the Dodgers in the 2004/2005 offseason, his awful 2006 forced a trade with the Royals.

So far, it hasn't been an especially good deal for Kansas City. At least the Dodgers got some zero frames out of him once they had the idea to move him to the bullpen; he has yet to pitch a shutout as a starter with the Royals, and ended his 2006 with a 2-4 record and a 5.64 ERA. This year hasn't been much better, but today's game provided at least a glimmer of light: for one thing, it was Perez's second straight quality start.

A good bit of that is because the Angels' offense is missing a number of key pieces; outside of Vlad, there really isn't anybody on the squad who can knock the ball over the fence, and so we return to the usual complaints. The Angels managed three off Perez, and that was it. In keeping with recent tradition, Vlad squelched a no-outs, two-on rally by hitting into a 6-4-3 double play; the Angels, sad as it is, lead the league in GIDPs with 26, a fact that is as annoying as it is telling.

Once again, the pitching was outstanding, as it has to be for the Angels to have even a ghost of a chance. John Lackey struck out seven over six and a third innings, dancing around eight hits and a walk; the bullpen pitched zero frames the rest of the way.

The only other thing of interest in this game was Mike Napoli's seventh inning error that allowed Emil Brown to reach safely, a mistake that Justin Speier was fortunately able to pitch around. Mike Napoli now ties Kansas City starting catcher John Buck for most errors in the AL this year, with three. Furthermore, his average descended to a sub-Mendoza level today, with a .192/.276/.327 line; Napoli's had only six walks in 58 plate appearances. One wonders whether he's taking his hitting troubles behind the plate with him, but regardless, with Jeff Mathis starting to come around at Salt Lake, his days might be numbered if he can't start thumping or at least taking a few walks shortly. The hazard with Napoli has always been that he won't make enough contact to be a good player, and in the time after his white-hot first couple of months, that seems to be the case.

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