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Wednesday, May 02, 2007

What Bill Stoneman Does Right

The Denver Post ran an article today indicating that former Padres starter Brian Lawrence is exiting rehab for his shoulder surgery and wants to pitch again. Lawrence came up lame ($) in the Nationals' 2006 spring training camp, and an MRI showed "extensive tears in both the labrum and rotator cuff" that basically ended his season and his obligations to the Nats. Supposedly, the Orioles, Tigers, and old employer Padres all have varying degrees of interest, probably assisted by his willingness to take on a AAA assignment to prove his mettle.

When — not if — Lawrence gets a contract, it will prove yet again that teams can never have enough pitching. Two of the Padres' five starters now have ERAs above 5.00, despite playing in the pitcher's paradise known as Petco Field. On the other coast, the Yankees struggle even to assemble a rotation; with Chien-Ming Wang sidelined or less-than-100% due to a hamstring injury, Mike Mussina contracting the same ailment, and Carl Pavano losing playing time to a strained forearm, the Yankees have taken to making moves they hitherto had expressly ruled out, like calling up top prospect Phil Hughes — or even allowing a relatively unheralded minor leaguer like Chase Wright get a start or two, once with disastrous results.

So amidst all the frenzy elsewhere glides Bill Stoneman's club. The temptation to trade a Joe Saunders or a Chris Bootcheck or a Dustin Moseley (the latter two especially) must have been awful over the last couple years. The Angels' offensive problems couldn't have been more obvious, and one can only speculate what the trade demands might have been on the opposite side. And yet, here the Angels are in 2007, and losing two starters doesn't even cause them to breathe hard, as Saunders returned from his 2006 stint replacing Bartolo Colon in the rotation, and Moseley made the team after a strong spring. So far, both have sub-2.00 ERAs in limited use, and both have posted quality starts in all but one of their combined outings. Unlike the Yankees, nobody's crying about the dearth of pitching in Anaheim.

It's a point recently reemphasized by Baseball Prospectus author Kristina Kahrl in a New York Sun column about just how much the Angels have their thinking hats on in the front office:

What does a team have to do to get some respect? The Angels haven't had a lightning-rod bestseller like Michael Lewis's "Moneyball" written about them. That's understandable — a lot of what general manager Bill Stoneman and manager Mike Scioscia do is just great talent management. As the Yankees and Red Sox know, you don't build to win this year, you build to win every year, and as the Angels begin to get in gear with more of their regulars coming back off the disabled list, the team is lining itself up to dominate the AL West now, and, potentially the entire league for years to come.
The Angels' heavy injury toll wasn't limited to pitchers but also included players like quasi-starting left fielder Juan Rivera, supersub Chone Figgins, and second baseman Howie Kendrick, who promises to be "one of the best line-drive power sources to come out of the minor leagues in the last 20 years". The Halos also had questions about production from relatively untested newcomer Casey Kotchman at first. Nevertheless, Los Angeles of Anaheim has roared out to match their franchise win total in April. This is no coincidence, writes Kahrl, because "the Angels understand [...] that losing talent isn't the same thing as being without talent", something they rarely get credit for in the national media:
What's interesting is that the Angels don't even get their due props, neither from press box reactionaries — like ESPN's Joe Morgan — nor from the authors of the inevitable books lauding some "anti-Moneyball" approach to winning. Teams like the Twins or Braves or Cardinals get propped up as the latest example of oldschool baseball, without a lot of supporting evidence, because it makes for good copy. That kind of work treats baseball fans to the tedious exercise of building up a false dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis, in which an archetype of old-school scouting that reflects the value of traditional approaches to player development gets thrown up against equally overdrawn visions of brilliant technocrats grinding down the troglodytes through an inspired brand of spreadsheet magic.
Maybe some more postseason appearances will change that; another title surely would do it. Some days, we dare to dream.

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Comments:
Excellent post. Like you, at times I've been a bit hard on Stoneman.

He's done a nice job of at eschewing deals where the Angels would lose young talent to get an aging veteran. And so he definitely deserves mad props for that.

And so far the Matthews Jr. signing--something Stoneman has taken tremendous heat for--looks good. Sure Matthews is vastly overpaid, but he's been a solid overall addition to the Halos both for his hitting and fielding.

I still believe the Angels are probably a slugger short of being a bona fide contender, but I'd love to be proven wrong.

- Chris
 
Glad to see someone giving some love to Stoneman.

I know he seems to be cautious but with all that young talent the Angels are developing I think he can afford to be protective.
 
In re the slugger, I'm hoping for good things from both Kotch and Howie.
 
I'm always glad to see a positive article about my favorite team. Here is another idea that I thought was missed.

Imo, a core halo strategy is have a strong bully. It is so much a focus that the team is willing to pay above market rates for the guys and not above market rates for position players (which I think is a good idea, btw).
 
Nice, nice post. While we've all been hard on the Stone-man from time to time I tend to agree in priniciple with his fundamental strategy:

Horde high ceiling prospects so that you have a large pool from which to determine which ones will become future stars/solid regulars/busts, AND give said prospects a legitimate chance to earn and keep their roster spots.

This allows for the payroll flexibility to add impact players via free agency where nothing is lost in the process save for a draft pick.

Granted, the last two winters have seen Arte's millions scorned by big time F/A's (or almost F/A's in A-Ram's case) in love with the windy city, that doesn't in itself, shoot holes in what is a sound strategy to win LONG TERM.

As for those who feel (as I do) that this team is still one impact power bat from going deep into October, remember that our Halos have the expectant arrival of a player who ranked ahead of A-Rod, Texeira, Glaus, Dunn, Rolen, Tejada, Sexson, and Ordonez in Slugging Pct. in 2006 (Mr. Rivers) in store in the next 30 or so days.
 
More comments by Christina Kahrl about the Angels and her N.Y. Sun article:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=354
 

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