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Thursday, August 02, 2007 |
Did The Rangers Light A Fire, Or Just Torch Their Team?
Jay Jaffe tries to answer that question, and he's mostly optimistic about it:
Daniels did well at the deadline, particularly in dealing Teixeira. While trading the 27-year-old slugger won't improve the offense in the short term, the move was unavoidable. Teixeira won't be a free agent until after next season, but the Scott Boras client is determined to test the market and unlikely to return to a team that's gone spendthrift since trading Alex Rodriguez. In return, Daniels snagged a veritable talent factory's top three prospects in 22-year-old catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 18-year-old shortstop Elvis Andrus, and 21-year-old starter Matt Harrison, plus two lower-level pitchers.Jaffe also likes the move to ship Gagne to the Red Sox for starter Kason Gabbard, who has filled in for Curt Shilling during the latter's long DL stint. I'm not quite as sold on these moves, for the simple reason that the Rangers have previously been burned on their pitching trades, most notably in the Eaton for Young deal. More, they've had consistent problems developing pitching and getting good value for what they do have. Of their original DVD trio that was supposed to be the team's next generation of starting rotation talent, Texas has gotten poor value (John Danks), had medical problems with (arm troubles with Thomas Diamond), or simply found their erstwhile phenom fizzling (Edinson Volquez, who started the year all the way back in the Cal League and doesn't seem to have shaken the control problems that got him there in the first place). If they know how to recognize good young pitching talent, you could've fooled me.Most intriguing is Saltalamacchia, a 6-foot-4-inch switch-hitter who projects as one of the game's top-hitting catchers. Already boasting an elite backstop in 23-year-old Brian McCann, the Braves found at-bats for "Salty" at first base; after a hot start, a slump dragged his numbers down to .284 AVG/.333 OBA/.411 SLG. That's light for a first sacker, but solid for a catcher, particularly on a team getting considerably less from incumbent Gerald Laird. Andrus is years away from the majors, but he's been playing against competition that's three years his senior, and with Young signed through 2013, time is on his side. Harrison's a big strike-throwing lefty with solid control and good velocity; his recent shoulder soreness prompted the inclusion of the other two pitchers as insurance.
Labels: rangers, transactions
Comments:
What's interesting is that other than "Salty," none of these guys will help them in 2008, and I'm not sure Harrison is ready by 2009. Clearly, they did not like the prospect of facing Teixiera 18 times (or whatever)a year with the Angels, because the Halos were offering immediate help: Kotchman would have taken over at 1B right away, and Joe Saunders would have stepped into the #2 or #3 spot in their starting rotation, with free agency years away. They probably could have come away with another bat or arm capable of providing immediate (if limited) help.
nice info Rob.
as jjack alludes, i wonder if Jaffe thought the Rangers would have been better off getting the Angels package. from wha i know, they would have been.
as for the Sox, the Sox fan i work with was quite bummed with the Gagne trade - he felt Gabbard was the real deal and they alreay had BP#1 and BP#2 guys. His thinking was Wakefiled should have been moved to the pen.
time will tell of course - the Eaton trade didn't seem that bad at first. We'll just see how the Sox rotation plays out in the playoffs, i.e. will Schilling hold up?
finally, i told you i wasn't worried about Vlad :)
as jjack alludes, i wonder if Jaffe thought the Rangers would have been better off getting the Angels package. from wha i know, they would have been.
as for the Sox, the Sox fan i work with was quite bummed with the Gagne trade - he felt Gabbard was the real deal and they alreay had BP#1 and BP#2 guys. His thinking was Wakefiled should have been moved to the pen.
time will tell of course - the Eaton trade didn't seem that bad at first. We'll just see how the Sox rotation plays out in the playoffs, i.e. will Schilling hold up?
finally, i told you i wasn't worried about Vlad :)
Space prevented me from delving into the Angels angle in the piece. Offhand, if Kendrick was part of the deal along with Kotchman and Saunders, then yes, I'd call that a better package. If it's Wood or Adenhart instead of Kendrick, then I'll go with the Braves' package.
Not being a scout, I'm basing that mainly on how much higher Kendrick's PECOTA upside is compared to every other name involved in the trade - it's more than double that of Wood, Salty, and Andrus, all of whom are about equivalent, with the pitchers in question considerably less valuable.
Gagne simply wasn't all that valuable to other teams given his health, the no-trade, and the Boras connection. Given that the Yanks and Tigers weren't willing to give up much, the Rangers did ok, but it's not a steal by any stretch. Gabbard looks good compared to the guys in the Ranger rotation, but when that .225 BABIP comes home to roost, you'll be looking at a league-average inning muncher. The real meat of the Sox package is the possibility that the 17 year old, Beltre, pans out, and that's a long ways off.
Not being a scout, I'm basing that mainly on how much higher Kendrick's PECOTA upside is compared to every other name involved in the trade - it's more than double that of Wood, Salty, and Andrus, all of whom are about equivalent, with the pitchers in question considerably less valuable.
Gagne simply wasn't all that valuable to other teams given his health, the no-trade, and the Boras connection. Given that the Yanks and Tigers weren't willing to give up much, the Rangers did ok, but it's not a steal by any stretch. Gabbard looks good compared to the guys in the Ranger rotation, but when that .225 BABIP comes home to roost, you'll be looking at a league-average inning muncher. The real meat of the Sox package is the possibility that the 17 year old, Beltre, pans out, and that's a long ways off.
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