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Monday, October 01, 2007 |
One For You, Andrew: BHW's Short Version Of The Angels' Shortcomings
From yesterday's BTF thread on the topic:
The Angel baserunning is some part of their overperforming EqR projections, I would guess. How much? Dunno.
This is all academic. The Red Sox are a better team than the Angels, and should win the series. Obviously, an Angel victory is possible, and a reasonable possibility, but I really think Boston is better and that I'll be satisfied if the Angels win one game and don't embarrass themselves in the others.
Wow, Angels fans starting off with a reverse jinx early. I didn't expect this until Tuesday or Wednesday.
It's not a reverse jinx. This is a good team, but with real problems:
1. Lack of diversity on offense; if the singles and baserunning aren't coming together, they can't score. Not a lot of walks (outside of Kotchman and, when healthy, Napoli), not a lot of power (outside of Vlad, the resurrected Garret, and the gap power of Kotch and Kendrick).
2. Unexceptional outfield defense.
3. Inconsistent back of the bullpen, and the very real possibility that Scot Shields has expired. (The middle of the bullpen doesn't even raise to the level of inconsistent.
Basically, if you get to the Angel starter early (and the Red Sox have the offense to do this), and have a reasonable starter going yourself (which the Red Sox have a few of), you're off to the races, as the middle of the bullpen is nothing special (even with Santana, Saunders, and maybe even Colon in line to fortify it) and you're only going to give up runs if the Angels string a lot of hits together, or if you let Vlad beat them.
Obviously that's a generic strategy (ooh, you mean I should try to get a lot of runs off the starter?!), but I think Boston is better-equipped to win both close games and blowouts. They're a better team.
Labels: angels, postseason, red sox
Comments:
And the point being? Dialing up other people that share your pessimism isn't an argument. It's called attending group therapy on the eve of the dance.
I have my own criticisms of the team, and recognize openly that beating a Red Sox team with homefield advantage is a challenge. But I don't preemptively dismiss their chances in a short series, especially given the fact that we took two of four in Fenway in the last series we played there, and had Vlad and Figgins out when we played there and lost in April. All we need is one win of two between Wednesday and Friday.
All I'm asking from you is a little freakin' balance, and maybe some optimism, however forced, to run on into the playoffs. But you give up every time the goin's tough. Without fail, man, without fail!
Why are you more invested in predicition over prosperity? Nobody's gonna clap her hands if you get the exact time of death down to the minute. What's the kick? Do you have a stake in some event planning outfit for mobile wakes that I don't know about?
I have my own criticisms of the team, and recognize openly that beating a Red Sox team with homefield advantage is a challenge. But I don't preemptively dismiss their chances in a short series, especially given the fact that we took two of four in Fenway in the last series we played there, and had Vlad and Figgins out when we played there and lost in April. All we need is one win of two between Wednesday and Friday.
All I'm asking from you is a little freakin' balance, and maybe some optimism, however forced, to run on into the playoffs. But you give up every time the goin's tough. Without fail, man, without fail!
Why are you more invested in predicition over prosperity? Nobody's gonna clap her hands if you get the exact time of death down to the minute. What's the kick? Do you have a stake in some event planning outfit for mobile wakes that I don't know about?
Another version:
The Red Sox have been sold as the "better team" all season, but the Angels are still within 2 games in the W-L column, and went 4-of-10 despite having to play 7 of 10 games in Fenway, and multiple games w/o Vlad or Figgins. Boston has only won 7 of their last 15. We got five ERs against Schilling last time we faced him, and won against Beckett last time we faced him (though largely due to Boston's bullpen).
Using long-season metrics like EqR to try to argue why the 'overperforming' Angels will lose in a short series is like using a sundial to time microwave popcorn. The Angels' contact offense is just as likely to go on as off. They could sweep the Sox, and it would be no more or less surprising to me than them being sweeped.
The Red Sox have been sold as the "better team" all season, but the Angels are still within 2 games in the W-L column, and went 4-of-10 despite having to play 7 of 10 games in Fenway, and multiple games w/o Vlad or Figgins. Boston has only won 7 of their last 15. We got five ERs against Schilling last time we faced him, and won against Beckett last time we faced him (though largely due to Boston's bullpen).
Using long-season metrics like EqR to try to argue why the 'overperforming' Angels will lose in a short series is like using a sundial to time microwave popcorn. The Angels' contact offense is just as likely to go on as off. They could sweep the Sox, and it would be no more or less surprising to me than them being sweeped.
And the point being? Dialing up other people that share your pessimism isn't an argument. It's called attending group therapy on the eve of the dance.
The point being, Andrew, that he put a little more meat on the bones of an argument I already made. Yeah, the Angels' bats could get hot ... but look at that bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon (1.85 ERA). Hideki Okajima (2.22 ERA). Manny Delcarmen (2.05 ERA). Clay Buchholz (1.59 ERA). Some of those guys may not be on the postseason roster, but that's a hell of a lot better than what the Angels are throwing out there. John Lackey, 1-10 career at Fenway. I could go on.
The point being, Andrew, that he put a little more meat on the bones of an argument I already made. Yeah, the Angels' bats could get hot ... but look at that bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon (1.85 ERA). Hideki Okajima (2.22 ERA). Manny Delcarmen (2.05 ERA). Clay Buchholz (1.59 ERA). Some of those guys may not be on the postseason roster, but that's a hell of a lot better than what the Angels are throwing out there. John Lackey, 1-10 career at Fenway. I could go on.
Rob, you're unnecessarily pessimistic here. The problem is you know too much about the Angels and nothing about the Red Sox. I watch nearly every game either team plays. Okajima isn't scaring anyone anymore, Papelbon is not like he was at the start of the season, and when you have a pitcher with an ERA near the 2's, it's likely he'll find a way to move that 1-10 record closer to the mean. Lackey is a big game pitcher, one that has accomplished more in a short career than many have over 15 years.
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