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Monday, December 31, 2007

OT: Happy New Year

As is the practice here, I expect tomorrow will be mighty quiet; it certainly will be at 6-4-2 World Headquarters. This beats my ringing in 1990, which was spent at a friend's house party; one of the girls was known to get, uh, friendly after two or three beers, and somehow I kinda blacked out on what happened between making out in her car and the six-foot-forty guy sitting on top of me in the kitchen rearranging my face. The fact that I managed to drive all the way back to Torrance at 3:00 AM while raging drunk is and remains one of the great miracles of my life. That I didn't kill anybody or get killed is astonishing. It was a "never again" moment, and I haven't, either.

Happy New Year's, all.

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Friday, December 28, 2007

OT: Carona Takes Another Bribe

Not that I get too excited about local politics, but it's now perfectly apparent that Orange County Sheriff Mike Carona needs to be fired posthaste. According to today's Register, Carona is accepting the free services of Brian Sun and John Cline, two attorneys who successfully defended high-profile clients (in Cline's case, Scooter Libby and Oliver North). That this presents a huge potential conflict of interest seems to have escaped Carona (what happens if one of his defenders' other clients runs afoul of the county sheriff, i.e., the Don Haidl problem), which makes the federal charges against him all the more plausible. Luckily, local activist Shirley Grindle has filed a complaint (PDF) that the services violate a state statute forbidding gifts of more than "about $396" (in her words). Go her.

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Dayn Perry Ranks The Top Pitching Duos

Via Halos Heaven, Dayn Perry sets out a strange list of what he considers to be the top ten pitching duos in baseball today. It's strange because he gives more weight to rate stats than durability, proof of which comes when he ranks the Twins' Santana/Liriano combo third overall despite the fact that they pitched only 219 innings between them (edit: ... and all of them by Santana!). The full list follows:
  1. ARI: Brandon Webb, Dan Haren
  2. CLE: C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona
  3. MIN: Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano
  4. SDP: Jake Peavy, Chris Young
  5. SFG: Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum
  6. LAD: Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley
  7. LAA: John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar
  8. PHI: Cole Hamels, Brett Meyers
  9. TBD: Scott Kazmir, James Shields
  10. ATL: John Smoltz, Tim Hudson
As I said, a strange list. Here's how I would have ranked them using VORP for pitchers with 120 or more innings pitched, which takes into account playing time. This won't fix the translation for Dan Haren going to the weaker league (but that probably washes out because he's heading to a harder park). It also likely shortchanges the Brewers, whose impressive young starter, Yovani Gallardo, only pitched 110 innings because he was a midseason callup, and would likely have been a ~40-50 VORP pitcher on his team, i.e. the Brewers' ace. It also doesn't try to adjust for incoming Japanese pitchers like Hiroki Kuroda of the Dodgers, who are essentially unknowns.
  1. SDP: (73.7 VORP) Jake Peavy, Chris Young
  2. CLE: (71.3 VORP) C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona
  3. ARI: (64.9 VORP) Brandon Webb, Dan Haren
  4. ATL: (63.1 VORP) John Smoltz, Tim Hudson
  5. LAD: (58.5 VORP) Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley
  6. LAA: (57.3 VORP) John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar
  7. BAL: (47.8 VORP) Erik Bedard, Jeremy Guthrie
  8. BOS: (47.4 VORP) Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling
  9. CHA: (47.3 VORP) Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez
  10. TBA: (39.0 VORP) Scott Kazmir, James Shields
The Giants and Tampa Bay Twins completely fell off the list, in San Francisco's case mostly because Lincecum wasn't as good as Perry represented. With the Rays' Shields, his problem was the longball, tallying 28 in 2007, tying him for third in the league with John Danks, behind first-place Twins starter Johan Santana). Likewise, Kazmir coughed up quite a few taters (18) that hurt his numbers.

Update: I totally screwed up on Minnesota, forgetting that Carlos Silva was a free agent signed by the Mariners this offseason. His absence drops the Twins utterly off this list and moves Tampa Bay back up, albeit their starting two is almost a full win worse than the Chisox, Red Sox, or Baltimore. Liriano gets no love because he didn't pitch a single inning in 2007, and it's questionable what he'll bring to the table in 2008.

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Thursday, December 27, 2007

Christina Kahrl On Western Division Deals To Date

Christina Kahrl reviews the deals in the NL West (and those for the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West) and kinda-sorta likes what the Dodgers have done:
Importing Kuroda might be the case of catching the kind of Carp you want to keep (he pitched for Hiroshima, so you can make a Blinky joke if you're not squeamish). Although he'll be 33, as Mike Plugh noted in November, he has a nice power assortment and might give us further opportunities to see the shuuto thrown in the major leagues. The price is a bit steep for someone who might only be around a fourth starter in the majors, but after last season's rotation shenanigans with Wolfs and Jumbos and Hendricksons and Tomkos, and with Jason Schmidt's availability in doubt, you can understand Ned Colletti's desire to get something done, and skip having to ponder the virtues of someone like Kyle Lohse.

The other move of note is getting Andruw to yet another big-ticket short-term deal. While we bash on Colletti for a lot of things, he has been relatively good at taking this sort of chance, and it's a reasonable way to spend when you've got a fully-stocked farm system you don't want to scatter to the winds and a win-now agenda. Dodgers fans just wish he'd been similarly smart with Juan Pierre, and it's here that signing Jones creates that additional problem—what do you do with the monster mistake of the 2007 Hot Stove League? Already near-useless as a regular in center, Pierre's a disaster in the making for what he'll do to an offense in left. Ideally, Colletti will manage something semi-clever, like making Pierre a White Sock or a Marlin for the next four years, however much money eaten it takes to make it so, but the danger is that any gains the Dodgers make offensively by buying Jones after a down year will get handed back by playing Pierre in a corner while benching either Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp. You would think that an aggressive push to win the division and playing Pierre would be mutually exclusive, but after failing to learn that lesson last year, apparently Colletti needs another dose of the sledgehammer of certainty to convince himself he made a monumental error of judgment.

Finally, while it's sort of neat to see Bennett wind up with his eighth team in eight years, he's not an asset. Not that the Dodgers weren't already dead in case something bad happens to Russell Martin, but when an entirely punchless defensive specialist gets so week-armed with age that even the Cardinals lose interest, it's a bad sign.

She also likes Kevin Towers' deals to bring in Mark Prior and Randy Wolf for little money and short contracts ("you can see this adding up to a solid rotation with some upside potential") while dissing the Jim Edmonds deal ("His range in center isn't just not what it was, it's well into “not good enough” territory"), and smiles on the "happy deal" between Padres and perennial Cy Youngster Jake Peavy.

For the Giants, "If you thought things were going to get better in San Francisco, guess again", sees "a lot of risk" in the myriad pitching signings (David Wells, Aaron Cook, Luis Vizcaino, and Mark Redmond) in Colorado, and wonders whether Arizona's trade for Danny Haren is "too clever by half". There's more — and mostly negative — on Seattle's signing Carlos Silva (though a career 3.57 ERA against the Angels may have something to do with their decision), and declares the Volquez/Hamilton trade to fall in that category of deals "that made/broke/saved/killed Jon Daniels".

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Dodgers' Trainer Conte "Tried To Blow The Whistle On Steroids" While In San Francisco

Interesting article in scout.com about Dodgers trainer Stan Conte, who tried to get Brian Sabean to at least acknowledge steroid use by his players, to apparently no effect.
According to the Mitchell Report, Conte asked Anderson for a resume. Anderson indicated he had graduated from high school and that everything else was "pending."

Conte approached Giants general manager Brian Sabean, about restricting their access to the clubhouse and off-limit areas and Sabean told Conte he should confront Bonds.

When Conte asked for Sabean's support if Bonds objected, the Giants GM left Conte hanging, Albee remembers. Sabean does not recall that conversation, the Mitchell Report said.

Subtract some credibility for apparent own-ass-covering here, but it's interesting reading.

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Astros Sign Erstad To 1-Year/$1M Deal

The Astros signed ex-Angel Darin Erstad to a one-year, $1M deal according to the AP. "He's a great makeup guy," according to Houston GM Ed Wade, leading me to wonder whether he's building a baseball team or producing a movie.

Update: Dan Szymborski laughs and laughs.

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Padres Sign Mark Prior, Rangers Trade Volquez For Hamilton

Catching up after a couple days of inactivity...

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Tuesday, December 25, 2007

OT: Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas to everyone from 6-4-2 World Headquarters, where I'm reeling from a huge influx of sugar this morning. One day of going off my diet and I'm a complete mess. It's probably better that way, because it lessens the temptation to really slough back to my old ways.

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Monday, December 24, 2007

John Sickels (Or His Wife?) On The Dodgers' Top 20 Prospects

Right here:
  1. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Grade A

  2. Andy LaRoche, 3B, Grade A-  (I still really like him)

  3. James McDonald, RHP, Grade B+

  4. Chin-Lung Hu, SS, Grade B

  5. Jonathan Meloan, RHP, Grade B

  6. Dewlyn Young, OF, Grade B-

  7. Chris Withrow, RHP, Grade B-

  8. Scott Elbert, LHP, Grade C+ (would rank higher if healthy)

  9. Blake DeWitt, 3B, Grade C+

  10. Andrew Lambo, 1B, Grade C+

  11. Pedro Baez, 3B, Grade C+

  12. Josh Bell, 3B, Grade C+

  13. Ivan DeJesus, SS, Grade C+

  14. James Adkins, LHP, Grade C+

  15. Xavier Paul, OF, Grade C+

  16. Justin Orenduff, RHP, Grade C+

  17. Austin Gallagher, 3B, Grade C (might rank at C+, still thinking)

  18. Jamie Hoffman, OF, Grade C

  19. Jaime Pedroza, SS, Grade C

  20. Ramon Troncoso, RHP, Grade C

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Review: Los Angeles Dodgers Vintage World Series Films

As you age, time foreshortens; a year is now 1/44th of my life, but when I was ten, it was 1/10th. December lasted forever, and Santa couldn't arrive fast enough. I was a skeptical kid: not having a chimney, I guessed him coming down the flue of our natural gas heater was pretty improbable, and thus his actual existence highly unlikely. Nevertheless, I remember my sister and I counting down every day to Christmas, marking off the dates on the Register's Mini Page calendar that ran on the first Sunday after Thanksgiving or so.

But if time ticks by ever faster as I age, the reverse is true of the Dodgers' World Series appearances. Growing up listening to Vin Scully call the games on a little lemon-colored Radio Shack radio, hanging in a hammock in our back yard and looking up at the darkening sky, Dodgers' excellence was something you took for granted. Of course they'll win the division. Of course they'll be in the World Series. I raged at the TV when Reggie Jackson threw out his hips on the basepaths, deflecting Ron Cey's throw and ultimately costing the Dodgers Game 4 in the '78 Series.

And so here we are today, Dodger fans famished, relatively speaking, by a string of mediocrities, punctuated by the last gasp, the 1988 squad that shouldn't have been able to do it; whatever pixy dust landed on that team seems to have been drained out of the future, glory bought on the installment plan. For a long while now, Dodger glory has been about the past, and not the recent past, either.

Nostalgia therefore being eminently salable, I received as a gift the 2-DVD set, Vintage World Series Films: Dodgers, containing footage of all five Los Angeles Dodgers titles. The first thing that really pops out at you is the brass band cheerleading that marked postwar baseball marketing; the old Angels fight song was of the same cloth, and sounds every bit as dated. All of the films are scripted, some of them ham-handedly so; there are places where it would have been far more interesting to listen to Vin Scully's contemporaneous calls. It's odd to hear Scully so pantingly commercial; "that's the dazzling type of play that makes baseball thrilling to watch" is so leaden a phrase, it defies comprehension how he could possibly utter it.

In a sense, you expect that. The 1950's were an era of declining attendance, partly fueled by the outgrowth of the suburbs; baseball was still played in stadiums far away from its likely customers, a situation that would be corrected in the coming decades (and one that the Dodgers were well-situated to take advantage of).

If the films have their tics, they also have their charms, the latter generally overshadowing the former. It's the first time I've seen Sandy Koufax pitch, and if you've never seen that, it's worth the price of admission by itself. Likewise old Metropolitan Stadium, which always struck me as being terribly small and obsolescent the moment it was built; the film makes it look like an overgrown spring training facility, without shade in the outfield seats (though given how little sun you get there, maybe that's a net positive). Needless to say, this is a must-have for any serious Dodger fan. It's too bad that there aren't videos of the Dodgers' 1977 and 1978 losing World Series efforts, because there's a lot of interesting history there, too; but you have to wade through the Yankeeography to get it.

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Thursday, December 20, 2007

Padres Sign DaVanon, Fick To Minor League Deals

The Padres signed Jeff DaVanon and Robert Fick to minor league deals.

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Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Roster Notes

From around the Western divisions...

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Monday, December 17, 2007

Doomsday 2: Extending The List

Friday's news that Camille Johston has been forced out as Dodgers communications head made me recall that I haven't touched my Dodgers doomsday list from two years ago. Anybody feeling inclined to mention something I'm missing, chime in.

Who (Title)StatusWhenComments
Roy Smith (VP Of Player Development)Resigned10/12/2006Was a special assistant to then-Pirates GM Dave Littlefield until he lost that job in the purge earlier this year. Replaced by De Jon Watson on 10/25/2007.
Grady Little (Manager)Fired Resigned10/30/2007Little's subsequent interviews made it sound like indeed he had planned on resigning late in the season, but the timing with Joe Torre's forced exit from the Yanks was surely suspicious.
Marty Greenspun (VP and COO)Resigned11/6/2007
Camille Johnston (VP Communications)Resigned, officially.12/14/2007Replaced by former Red Sox exec Charles Steinberg, who had worked for the team since April of this year. Tony Jackson says she was forced out.

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Dodgers Sign Gary Bennett As Reserve Catcher

The Dodgers signed 35-year-old Gary Bennett to a one-year, $850,000 deal to be the team's reserve catcher, according to Rotoworld. Bennett was recently listed in the Mitchell report as an alleged user of HGH.

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Sunday, December 16, 2007

Giants Thinking About Dallas McPherson, Other Roster Notes

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Saturday, December 15, 2007

Camille Johnston Out, Charles Steinberg In

Word is that Johnston was forced out despite protestations to the contrary ("multiple sources within the organization confirmed that she is being forced out"). Charles Steinberg was hired as executive vice president for public relations and marketing, "[inserting] an additional bureaucratic layer between Johnston and Dodgers owners Frank and Jamie McCourt that hadn't previously existed since Johnston joined the organization in October 2005."

The Dodgers also hired Dennis Mannion on Nov. 7 as COO.

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Dodgers Sign Hiroki Kuroda, 3 Years/$35-36M

The Dodgers have signed starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda to a three year deal worth an estimated $35M-$36M, according to reports in the Times and Tony Jackson's blog. (Also in dodgers.com.)

Instant uninformed analysis: Kuroda (J-ball stats) fills a significant hole in the Dodgers rotation. He functioned as the Hiroshima Carp's staff ace for a number of years, and has been healthy in the main while posting strong but not overpowering numbers. He'll slot in the 3-4 holes in the rotation, and should provide the Dodgers with a much better player than any of Mark Hendrickson, (an injured) Randy Wolf, or whoever happened to be fifth last year (Hong-Chih Kuo, Jason Schmidt, etc.). It also helps the Dodgers by making a suicide trade of Matt Kemp unnecessary, and best of all, they don't have to surrender a draft pick for the signing, either. It's very likely this will qualify as the smartest thing Ned Colletti has done all offseason.

Update: True Blue LA harshes my bliss, likening Kuroda to Kyle Lohse, only older and maybe more homer-tastic:

Kuroda is a player entering his mid 30s that had trouble missing bats against inferior competition. The only starters that have come from Japan with strikeout rates worse than Kuroda's are Keiichi Yabu and Masato Yoshii, neither of whom were exactly successful in their time in the states. Kuroda comes in with better control that either of those guys had, but it's still not a list of players that you want to be associated with.

Kuroda's "upside" comes from the fact that we aren't entirely certain that he's going to suck like Lohse will. Will he be able to get by just by being a new arm in the league in his first season? Maybe. But there's absolutely nothing here that suggests Kuroda will have any real sustained success in the bigs. If he can't keep his slider down, Kuroda becomes a two pitch pitcher in the bigs, and his out pitch isn't really all that fearsome.

And yes, all of this could be wrong, just look at what Saito did. However, I might have to invoke the Jamie Moyer rule and say that Takashi Saito can not be used as a precedent for anything. A guy leaping from a mediocre middle reliever in Japan to quite possibly the most dominant closer in the MLB at age 37 isn't likely to happen again. Unless Saito's magical transformation starts happening again and again, mediocre in Japan will probably mean worse than mediocre in the states. That pretty well sums up Kuroda.

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Friday, December 14, 2007

... And Other Stuff: Roster Notes

Buncha stuff happening that doesn't involve 'roids:

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Report: Kuroda Cancels U.S. Trip, To Sign With Dodgers

Here we go again:
Japanese right-hander Hiroki Kuroda canceled a scheduled visit to the United States because he decided to sign with the Dodgers. He also was being pursued by Seattle, Arizona and Kansas City. Dodgers closer Takashi Saito is believed to have helped sway Kuroda to Los Angeles.

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The Best Thing I've Read So Far On The Mitchell Report

The best thing I've read so far on the Mitchell Report (PDF, all 6.48 MB of it) has been from the Register's columnist, Mark Whicker:
If you can ignore the fact that there were no cross examinations, no subpoenas, no testimony under oath, no interaction between accuser and accused, no advance notice to the accused and no hard evidence whatsoever in most cases, the Mitchell Report certainly made its point.

But then its point had nothing to do with actual due process, because we don't really need that anymore, now do we? Check with assorted Duke lacrosse players and Whitewater defendants.

No, the Mitchell Report was all about Major League Baseball trying to cover the cracks through which all the steroids fell.

The Mitchell Report is a grab bag of slander, possible truths, and a splashy list of players designed to cow the MLBPA into surrendering even more of their constitutional rights. Written by a Red Sox board member, its bias is immediately suspect. It's political grandstanding at its lowest; if the point was to get Congress to back off, it's backfired, because now the Congress wants a second helping of self-righteousness that won't hurt anybody but a few millionaire athletes.

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Thursday, December 13, 2007

Blue Jays Add To Ex-Angels Collection, Sign Eckstein

The Toronto Blue Jays have signed David Eckstein to a one-year, $4.5M deal, according to reports from both MLB.com and The Canadian Press.

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Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Angels Sign Jesse Hoorelbeke

The Angels signed 1B Jesse Hoorelbeke, who had previously been in the Dodgers' system as recently as 2004. He was playing in indy ball with the Bridgeport Bluefins of the Atlantic League.

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Love Me Non-Tender

The Angels non-tendered Dallas McPherson, and the Dodgers failed to deliver a contract to Mark Hendrickson on the last day for teams to render contracts to their eligible free agents. Others of relevance in the respective Western divisions (and other players of interest around the league):

A's: Kiko Calero, RHP; Jose Garcia, RHP
Mariners: John Parrish, LHP
Rangers: Nick Gorneault, OF; Akinori Otsuka, RHP
Red Sox: Brendan Donnelly, RHP
Cubs: Mark Prior, RHP; Update: BCB reaction:

The "greatest college pitcher of all time" fell to the Cubs because the Twins couldn't afford to pay him. (By couldn't afford, I mean that billionaire owner Carl Pohlad was unwilling to pay). The excitement was palpable in Cubdom. The next Tom Seaver was coming to Chicago, but when.
Giants: Scott Munter, RHP
Padres: Jack Cassel, RHP; Morgan Ensberg, INF; Ryan Ketchner, LHP; Jason Lane, OF
Rockies: Sean Barker, OF; Darren Clarke, RHP

The Angels extended contract offers to Francisco Rodriguez, Casey Kotchman, Maicer Izturis and Juan Rivera.

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Giants Sign Aaron Rowand

The Giants have inexplicably signed 30-year-old centerfielder Aaron Rowand to a five-year deal, dollars unknown, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Also via ESPN; dispairing BTF commentariat to go with it; McCovey Chronicles unprintables, too.

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Instant, Not-Too-Well-Considered Opinion On The (If It's Real) Hiroki Kuroda Signing

Baseball Prospectus' Mike Plugh said that Hiroki Kuroda was one of the top-tier potential free agents this year. He signed a $10.6M deal last year to stay in Hiroshima, but it contained an out clause that could be exercised at any time, which he did.
He's not Daisuke Matsuzaka, but Kuroda a very strong power pitcher with a low to mid-90s fastball and a wicked forkball. In addition, he features a plus shuuto, something like a screwball, as well as an effective change. Even if he only pans out as a third or fourth starter in the majors, he will give you innings, work deep into games, and he should be fairly consistent start to start.
Kuroda pitched in a mild hitter's park, which should give the Dodgers some insurance that their new starter knows what it's like.

Operating without any kind of projections, and looking at his career stats, he's struck out about three times as many batters as he's walked (123 K/43 BB in 2007), though his overall strikeout rate is a bit low (6.16 K/9) and likely to go lower facing better competition — though maybe not, considering the talent drain from the NL to the AL. At 32, it's very likely his best years are behind him, so the Dodgers are paying a decent amount for a good but untested-in-the-majors pitcher. Nevertheless, if this keeps Colletti from trading Matt Kemp (and Mark Hendrickson out of the rotation), it's a reasonable deal.

Here's some video of a match against Hideki Matsui, and from the NPB All-Star Game.

Thanks to DT commenters Bob Timmermann and GMac in the 909 in today's thread for some of those links above.

Update: More from Jerry Crasnick, who writes

Several media outlets in Japan and Los Angeles have reported that Kuroda cancelled his U.S. visit and is leaning heavily toward signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers. But Kuroda's planned trip to California to meet with agent Steve Hilliard appears to indicate that he's not as far along in the process as the reports suggest.

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Ervin Santana Can Rest Easy: Miguel Tejada To The Astros

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Astros have shipped Luke Scott, RHP Matt Albers, and "prospects" to Baltimore in exchange for Miguel Tejada. That eliminates one long-standing Angel trade rumor right there.

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Zell To Sell Cubs, "Related Real Estate" By July

A Chicago Sun-Times story says that Sam Zell plans on divesting himself of the Cubs "and related real estate" (hello, Friendly Confines) in the first half of 2008. Wrigley Field may be sold separately from the Cubs, and wouldn't that be an interesting wrinkle? I've often wondered whether too much love has been showered on the park at Addison and Clark, especially as to whether it's too hitter-friendly with its narrow foul ground.

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Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Kent's Back In Blue, Other Roster Notes

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Monday, December 10, 2007

Ex-Dodger Paul LoDuca Enters Career Graveyard

Yes, kids, it's the former heart and soul of the Dodgers (hat tip: BTF) you'll find behind the dish for the last-place Nationals. I wonder if Bill Plaschke will write a retraction for his silly 2004 screed following The Trade?

Nah.

Also in the WaPo Nats blog (via The Griddle).

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Sunday, December 09, 2007

Roster Notes

Catching up on a few things after spending yesterday in a Christmas-decorating-induced frenzy...

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Thursday, December 06, 2007

Jose Guillen, Jay Gibbons Suspended For Drug Policy Violations; Matthews, Jr. Off The Hook

MLB suspended ex-Angel Jose Guillen and Oriole OF Jay Gibbons for violating league drug policy, according to the AP, and both will receive 10- to 15-day suspensions.

Maury Brown reports that the investigation of Gary Matthews, Jr., Troy Glaus, Scott Schoeneweis, and Rick Ankiel, has concluded that there is insufficient evidence to prove violations. Other investigations continue.

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As Predicted: Wesley Wright Snagged In Rule 5 Draft

Props to Dodger Thoughts minor league maven CanuckDodger for accurately predicting Wesley Wright would be taken in today's Rule 5 Draft. The Dodgers also lost C Juan Apodaca and RHP Giuseppe Norrito.

The Angels lost a couple players in lower rounds, too, namely RHP Rafael Cruz Chavez, Francisco Cordova, and 1B Baltazar Lopez.

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Dodgers Sign Andruw Jones To 2-Year, $36.2M Deal

Ken Rosenthal, the Times, and dodgers.com all report the Dodgers have signed centerfielder Andruw Jones to a two-year, $36.2M deal. From Dylan Hernandez's LAT story:
At the start of the off-season, Jones' agent, Scott Boras, signaled he expected Jones could get a five-year contract worth $100 million.

But no team appeared to come close to such an offer, amid concerns over a .222 batting average that was 41 points below his career average and questions about his long-term conditioning. The two-year deal provides Jones the chance to re-establish his value and re-enter the free-agent market at age 32. Jones is believed to like the idea of hitting behind fleet-footed Rafael Furcal and Juan Pierre, which could allow him to drive in more runs.

Snore. More of the same from the Dodgers, who inexplicably seem to be falling for the same mistake the Angels did, shoring up one bad centerfield acquisition with (arguably) another. Now, it's possible that Jones is merely coming off a lone bad season, and that he will bounce back; but for Colletti's expensive potential bust, we may add the caveat that at least the (perhaps rotten and stinking) fish he landed has a two-year expiration date on it, a far better deal than the five years Gary Matthews, Jr. and Torii Hunter have. Oddly enough, Nate Silver called Jones "closer to Hunter in reality than in perception" at the end of the season, which makes sense: low-ish OBP, higher single-season home run totals offset by a precipitous plunge from previous levels.

As to whether the deal stinks: John Beamer at The Hardball Times looked at Jones' 2007, and concluded that

If you allow me to blatantly speculate, what appears to have happened is this: in the early few weeks Andruw was trying be selective but swung hard and fast when he saw a hittable pitch. He walked a ton, got a dash of luck but didn't hit many home runs despite playing well. In an effort to dial up the power he became less selective and more ragged and his production worsened considerably. Since then he has reigned [sic] in the power, focused a little more on contact and seen a corresponding change in his peripherals.
Dave Studeman posted a followup piece that same day, finding that Jones' line drive rate has been falling over the last four years:
As expected, Andruw has lost a lot of oomph on his outfield flies (despite hitting more of them), but his line drive production has also declined; in fact, it's declined each of the past four years. Add in lower production on his groundballs and more strikeouts, and you pretty much have a quadruple whammy.
That is, he's just not hitting the ball hard as he used to, and therefore isn't as valuable. But allow me to back off of this particular brand of pessimism for a moment and look at the bigger picture. The first question has to be, are the Dodgers improved? The only way that can be answered in the affirmative offensively is if you believe Jones is about to have a bounceback year. That could happen, but his 2007 was so bad that it could also belie a fundamental change in his value. Assuming he does revert to something like his age-adjusted career norms, this gives the Dodgers the unusual situation of having a centerfielder capable of carrying both his weight and Juan Pierre's, who now moves to the traditional power spot in left. The good news there is that Jones can still get it done in center (109 Rate2), so at least the comical trend of baserunners tagging from first on balls hit up the middle can come to an end. This is arguably a desperation move, but it signals something far more important, and ultimately, valuable to the Dodgers: it shows Ned Colletti understands that the Pierre contract is an albatross.

Jon, who likes the deal much more than I do, has more, saying "they can shortcircuit [the value of this signing] by overvaluing or undervaluing the wrong players."

Update: One thing I did miss here was the Scott Boras angle on things. Why Boras didn't get Jones a one-year deal is beyond me, unless he really thinks his client is possibly going to hell in a handbasket or other container. Baron von Awesome at BTF has an interesting take on the deal from Colletti's career perspective, too:

It looks to me like hedge-betting in preparation for taking credit no matter what happens on Uncle Ned's part. If Jones continues to mildly suck as last year, Uncle Ned says "Well, I knew he was a risk, that's why I insisted on only a two-year deal." If Jones goes gangbusters, Uncle Ned says, "I knew he was going to be great! That's why I didn't hesitate to give him $18 million a year!"
Update 2: Joe Sheehan:
I love this contract. It will be far and away the smartest thing any team does this winter, and it pushes the Dodgers up a little bit closer to the Diamondbacks in the 2008 NL West race.
Update 3: Inside The Dodgers isn't allowed to be anything but positive on this, but there is one reason for legitimate pleasure over this deal, and it's this graf:
He also said this makes him a little bit more comfortable about the in-house options at third base. If something comes up that is a really great option, we would do it, but pitching is the greater priority.
Which means that Andy LaRoche's status as a Dodger is safe at the moment.

Thanks to Jon for the link and extensive quote.

Update 4: Keith Law ($): "In a vacuum, this is an outstanding signing for the Dodgers", but comes up with the same dilemma Jon does: if it's an acknowledgement of the awfulness of the Pierre deal, great, but if it's prelude to moving Matt Kemp, ouch.

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Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Tech: Goosing Firefox Performance

Got the following tip from a friend this morning, and it does seem to help some, especially on ESPN.com:
Assuming you use Firefox for your browser, follow the simple steps detailed below and you will be surfing the web much faster than before.

  • Type "about:config" into the address bar and hit return
  • Scroll down and look for the following entries and alter appropriately
  • Set "network.http.pipelining" to "true"
  • Set "network.http.proxy.pipelining" to "true"
  • Set "network.http.pipelining.maxrequests" to a number like 30. Firefox will now make 30 requests at once whereas before it would only make one request at a time.
  • Lastly right-click anywhere and select New -> Integer. Name it "nglayout.initialpaint.delay" and set its value to "0" (time the browser waits before it acts on information received)
That's it, you are done, type in your favorite website and surf at speeds previously hidden from you!
Mozillazine says the largest acceptable value for network.http.pipelining.maxrequests is actually 8, so the author of this anonymous piece is likely wrong about the 30 number. It also adds the following caveat:
Higher values will cause a delay before the first request completes but will make the last request complete sooner. Higher values will also cause more of a delay if a connection fails.
The default is 4, so take it for what it's worth. From experimentation, settings of 4 or 8 were indistinguishable from 30 using Flash-heavy ESPN.com as a baseline.

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Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Robothal: Dodgers Hot After Scott Rolen

Figures, especially after all the nice things Colletti had to say about the kids. Don't smirk, though, Angels fans: the Halos are supposedly kicking the tires on a Rolen deal, too. Grain of salt and all that, though.

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Braves Inquire About Reggie Willits

Atlanta Journal-Constitution speculation.

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Report: Red Sox Land Santana

Via Fire Brand Of The American League, KNBR San Francisco is reporting that the Red Sox have a deal in principle with the Twins to acquire starting pitcher Johan Santan for Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Jed Lowrie and Ryan Kalish. The Times had reported earlier in the day that the Angels were in talks with the Twins, but it wasn't clear if those involved Santana.

Update: Earlier speculation in the day from the AP via ESPN.

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Report: Tigers Get Miguel Cabrera

MLB.com is reporting the Tigers and Marlins have agreed to a trade that will send Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit, in exchange for OF Cameron Maybin, LHP Andrew Miller, and four prospects. That would put the Angels out of the running for his services as well.

Update: Via the Detroit Free Press, the four players are C Mike Rabelo, and right-handed pitching prospects Dallas Trahern, Eulogio De La Cruz and Burke Badenhop. Via Rotoworld.

Update 2: Brian Kamenetzky weighs in:

Two monster prospects in outfielder Cameron Maybin and lefty Andrew Miller, a 28 year old catcher who hit .258 in 51 games last season (Mike Rabelo), and three minor league pitchers, none of whom are older than 24. No doubt, that’s a hefty package of young talent. But good as they are, Miller and Maybin weren’t counted on to play large roles in Detroit’s quest to get back to the World Series this year. Maybin, who hit .148 in 24 games, clearly needed more seasoning, while Miller (5-5, 5.69 in 13 starts) might not have cracked the Tigers’ rotation coming out of spring training.

A lot to give up? Sure. But with Cabrera and Willis- who doesn’t have to be a #1 for pitching blessed Detroit- the Tigers are absolutely loaded heading into ‘08. And with this deal, they’re participating in that most American of constructs: Buy now, pay later.

It’s something the Angels could, and should, have done, too.

I tend to disagree just because the pieces the Angels would have had to give up were absolutely part of their future plans as well, and at multiple positions. Detroit was trading mainly from surplus. One thing's for sure, though, and it does seem like even Tony "Ninja" Reagins has his limits, which is interesting considering he's at times thrown money at problems rather recklessly.

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McCourt Interested In Bringing The NFL To Dodger Stadium Parking Lot

What else would you expect from a parking lot attendant?
In 2004, Fox sold the [Dodgers] to Frank McCourt. The Dodgers met with NFL officials twice in 2005 to discuss a possible stadium at Chavez Ravine, then backed away after the plan became public.

McCourt issued a statement saying he would support the Coliseum "so long as the Coliseum is a viable site." He has declined to comment since Villaraigosa's statement, but one major league official said McCourt told him in recent weeks that an NFL stadium remained "a possibility."

According to well-placed sources in the sports community, McCourt and unnamed partners intend to make another run at the NFL after making major changes to Dodger Stadium and the surrounding areas. The plan, which involves as much as half a billion dollars in investments, calls for upgrading the venue and augmenting it with a nearby mixed-use development that includes retail shops, housing and the like.

McCourt has explored options for developing the Dodger Stadium parking lot since he bought the team, and the 2005 NFL discussions involved a retail and entertainment complex next to the ballpark and an NFL stadium. An internal memo obtained by the Boston Herald two years ago claimed McCourt could bask in the "psychic benefits of being the guy that brought football to L.A."

Tom Lasorda, who managed under O'Malley, said Monday he believed O'Malley still would own the Dodgers today if he had landed an NFL team.

So, you heard it here first: Frank McCourt wants to mismanage teams in not one but two sports.

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Stephen Smith On Autryism

It's hard to disagree with Stephen Smith's assessment of the recent rumormongering as "Autryism", the debilitating disease that afflicts organizations who start trading their kids at the drop of a hat in order to get a name. The one caveat I would throw at this: Cabrera is a kid. Getting such players in their relative youth is the only way you do that.

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Angels Trading For Cabrera! No, They're Not!

One way or another, ESPN will be right:
4:49 p.m., from Jayson Stark
• The Twins and Angels continue to talk about a Johan Santana trade. Many of the same players mentioned in the Miguel Cabrera sweepstakes -- Howie Kendrick, Brandan Wood, Nick Adenhart, and possibly Jeff Mathis or Reggie Willits -- would be included in a package for Santana.

• It is believed that the Angels haven't talked with the Marlins since last night, and Miguel Cabrera is off their radar screen -- at least for now

3:28 p.m., from Peter Gammons
• The Marlins are still serious about moving Miguel Cabrera to the Angels. Florida would get second baseman Howie Kendrick, young right-hander Nick Adenhart, catcher Jeff Mathis and one other prospect for the third baseman.

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Baseball America Ranks Top 10 Dodger Prospects

Baseball America ranks the top 10 Dodger prospects:
1. Clayton, Kershaw, lhp
2. Andy LaRoche, 3b
3. Chin-Lung Hu, ss
4. Scott Elbert, lhp
5. Blake DeWitt, 3b
6. Chris Withrow, rhp
7. James McDonald, rhp
8. Jonathan Meloan, rhp
9. Delwyn Young, of
10. Pedro Baez, 3b
The best thing to come of this was from the Alan Matthews chat:
 Q:  Martin from Los Angeles asks:
What would you rather have: James Loney, Matt Kemp and Clayton kershaw for 6 years or Miguel Cabrera for 2 years? As great a talent that Cabrera possesses, it seems madness to trade 3 cheap above average players for 1 expensive All-Star that might walk after 2 seasons. Do you agree?
 A: 

Alan Matthews: I concur, but I am fearful ownership in L.A. does not. I think the McCourts are a little media-hungry, and they want to give this team a shot in the arm after bring Torre over as manager. There's a rumor that the Dodgers might trade Erik Bedard to the Dodhers for Jonathan Broxton and Matt Kemp, and that deal, like the one for Cabrera, seems short-sighted. Ned Colletti came from an organization that made a nice living by pawning prospects for major league talent, and there's nothting wrong with using your system that way. But the current asking price for Cabrera's too high if Kemp and Loney and or Billingsley and Kershaw have to be in the mix. Making matters worse for Dodgers fans who want to see the homegrown guys get their shot is that I think the Angels are the frontrunner to get Cabrera, which might make ownership more headstrong in its pursuit of him, regardless of the costs.

Matthews will be joining the Rockies organization after this series completes. Congratulations to him.

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Monday, December 03, 2007

Joe Hamrahi Interviews Ned Colletti

Ned pretty much toes the bloggist party line: more kids, less "name" players:
How would you like to have Martin who’s 24, Loney who’s 23, Kemp who’s 23, Billingsley who’s 23, Broxton who’s 23, and you add Kershaw to it, and you add LaRoche to it and you add Chin-Lung Hu to it, and you add Tony Abreu to it…and you let it get better for another year…and that’s not to say we’re going to sell off 2008. We can still win in 2008. Think about the pitching staff we could have…Billingsley and Elbert and Kershaw and McDonald…that’s possible a year and a half from now. And you have two guys, Billingsley and Kershaw who are legit number 1-2 starters. You’d have a great catcher, you’d have a great first baseman, you’d have a guy at SS who might win the gold glove one day…a guy like Matt Kemp who hasn’t even played that much baseball. He’s played about 5 or 6 years baseball. He might wind up being a great centerfielder! So how do you (trade 3 or 4 of your top kids)? If we can stay the course, we can have something very special for a very long time.
There's a strong chance that it's all going to come to an end if the 2008 team doesn't win the division at least. Frank has a very short hook, and honestly, I'm surprised Colletti has lasted this long.

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Roster Notes

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Veterans' Committee Sends Walter O'Malley's Corpse To Cooperstown

A little late, guys, but it's good to see him getting recognition for what he did. Not that he didn't have his flaws (and if you read some accounts, he was a real ogre), but the Hall of Fame is not a character test; it contains, after all, Ty Cobb.

Via The Griddle, the full list of names, which includes executives Barney Dreyfus and Bowie Kuhn, and managers Billy Southworth and Dick Williams. Doug Harvey (68.8%) and Whitey Herzog (68.8%) just missed the cut.

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Sunday, December 02, 2007

Padres Sign Randy Wolf To 1-Year, $4M Deal

The Padres have signed ex-Dodger Randy Wolf to a one-year deal that could be worth up to $9M if he manages to stay healthy. His base pay will be $4M.

Also: the Pads declined arbitration on Milton Bradley.

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Saturday, December 01, 2007

Roster Notes

It's been busier than usual around here and I'm missing a few things as a result. With Christmas coming up and lots of things to do just from the move, here's some offseason red meat...

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