6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog: Another Feather In Bert's Cap: Blyleven 17th All-Time JAWS Score

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Thursday, January 03, 2008

Another Feather In Bert's Cap: Blyleven 17th All-Time JAWS Score

Jay Jaffe finally (and by his own admission, a tad belatedly, as the deadline for Hall of Fame ballots was December 31) runs the JAWS numbers and finds Bert Blyleven is 17th all-time in his eponymous JAWS system for measuring Cooperstown stature.

Hall of Fame voters perform Olympic-level gymnastics in attempting to justify why Blyleven doesn't get their vote, most fixating on his relatively unimpressive winning percentage (.534), his 250 losses, a win total on the wrong side of 300, and his failure to garner a Cy Young Award or top 20 wins more than once--all of those related to the level of support he received from his teammates (not to mention unenlightened voters). His career totals place him in elite company: fifth all-time in strikeouts (only Ryan, Carlton, Clemens, and Randy Johnson are ahead), ninth in shutouts, 11th in games started, 13th in innings, and 26th in wins, with virtually everybody around him on those lists either in the Hall of Fame or headed there. The Davenport numbers tell a similar story. Only 12 Hall of Famers have higher PRAA than Blyleven, only five have higher PRAR, and just 10 have higher WARP totals.

The first time I tackled the Hall of Fame ballot for BP, Blyleven polled at just 35.4 percent in his seventh year on the ballot. Thanks to an Internet blitz that's centered around Rich Lederer's campaign at The Baseball Analysts website (one that's even swayed actual BBWAA voters, including 2005 Spink Award recipient Tracy Ringolsby), he crossed the 50 percent threshold two years ago, attaining 53.3 percent of the vote in his ninth go-round. He fell back a bit last year, as did practically every holdover candidate in the presence of Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn, but the advocacy efforts continue, and his eventual enshrinement is hardly the ballot's most farfetched proposition.