Friday, April 23, 2004 |
Pickoff Moves
The Whistling Sound Of Doom
In today's Long Beach Press-Telegram, Doug Krikorian fires at the Angels with this pistol shot: "If the Dodgers wind up with a better record this season than the Angels, as they did last season, I wouldn't feel comfortable if I were Mike Scioscia. Arte Moreno didn't invest more than $140 million in the offseason to field another disappointing team." I'm tempted to agree, but with the caveat that it's as least as much Stoneman's fault for handing out ridiculous contracts to guys unlikely to earn the big bucks they've been given, as well as failing to get the best available talent. One thing that worried me about Bill was that, absent the need to be frugal, he'd lose some sense. It looks like that's happened; I'd certainly hate to see Scioscia fired for what was essentially a front office failing. It's not like Scioscia's a terrible manager -- he does make some crazy moves from time to time (José pinch running for Benjie?). But when Anderson goes .286/.375/.357 and promptly gets himself a game off because of an upper back problem since he signed his big dollar contract on the 13th, you have to wonder whether Stoneman isn't at least part of the problem here.Tomato Nation's Nine Reasons To Love Baseball
I don't need nine, but Sarah Bunting comes up with 'em anyway. Although she is a Yankee fan, I don't hold it against her -- her writing's good, and fun.Bottom of the Heap Awards
Al Yellon's Baseball Page has a "Bottom of the Heap Awards", obviously for worst hitter, pitcher, etc. Those impressed by Bobby Crosby's early start need only recall to last year, when he went 0-12 and garnered the Bob Buhl Award for the most at bats without hits in the American League.Angels 7, Rangers 5
As I mentioned earlier, Anderson was a late scratch for yesterday's game, so I was more than a little nervous watching Jeff DaVanon go up against the Rangers. The outfield sans Guillen looked like the 2003 edition Angels, which didn't do anything to assuage my fears. But no matter: they managed to make a win of it anyway, despite Colón's weak outing. He still doesn't impress me that much as a true ace, and his outing yesterday is a good example of why. Three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings, throwing 100 pitches? That's a line from Ishii, f'r chrissakes. At least he's not Chan Ho Park, though we haven't had him long enough for him to start breaking down. But -- great news -- Weber looked back to form. I told you you should have shaved that beard, Ben. Welcome back to the West!Rockies 7, Dodgers 1
Lima time was loss time for the Dodgers in a rain-shortened game. The sooner we get out of Colorado the better. It was cold and giving our pitching fits. Jim Tracy gave "how not to make a lineup card" lessons again, putting Alex Cora in the leadoff spot, inexplicably leaving Dave Roberts off the field. The official recap questions leaving Alvarez out of the rotation, but his questionable health makes me think Tracy's doing the right thing by keeping him as a swingman. The Dodgers lost this series, but IMO it came down to luck of the weather.Thursday, April 22, 2004 |
Lost In A Dream
"Let's go, Dream," Weathers, the coach, called. "Let's not stay out here all night."Jered Weaver's amazing season continues, piling on honor after honor, strikeout after strikeout, and win after win. His most recent, a brilliant 12-strikeout 3-0 shutout of UCI, gives him a 11-0 record with a 1.00 ERA in 80 2/3 innings pitched. Richard Lederer pointed out a nifty USA Today feature article on the dreamier Weaver, whose nickname is indeed "Dream".Later still, Weaver signed autograph after autograph for the Long Beach faithful.
Watching from a distance, Weathers' impatience melted and the coach smiled.
"Look at that guy," he said. "He's unbelievable."
Yet, despite the attention from the pro scouts, despite his connection to the man who tends the burning lake, he still wants to help power the Dirtbags, the former home of such big leaguers as Jason Giambi, Rocky Biddle, and Bobby Crosby. And if his brilliance has triggered an avalanche of comparisons to the greatest season ever by any college pitcher -- USC's Mark Prior -- buried in that praise is the fact that CSULB's team ERA stands at a breathtaking 2.37.
Baseball Prospectus contributor Boyd Nation (is that the moniker for the Orioles' national fan base?) writes a column today (subscription required) in which he translates, roughly, college stats to the pros at varying levels. For instance, a collegiate hitter's average of .300 gets multiplied by 0.69 in single-A ball; "... your .440 OBP college stud is actually on track at .330 in Mahoning Valley". Boyd doesn't talk about translating ERAs, but when you consider that Weaver's got four teammates with 0.00 ERAs, and one with a 2.00 ERA in 76.1 innings -- well, how does that line up? And how would you like being Cesar Ramos, the guy owning those numbers, overshadowed by Jeff and his amazing run of K's? Woosh.
We're just down the road a little ways from CSULB. I've gotta go before the season's up.
Out, Out Damned (Two) Spot
| Player | OBP |
|---|---|
| Eckstein | .308 |
| Erstad | .261 |
| Guerrero | .328 |
| Anderson | .391 |
| Glaus | .378 |
| Guillen | .339 |
| DaVanon | .400 |
| Molina, B. | .364 |
| Kennedy | .291 |
What's wrong with this picture?
- Eckstein's OBP slump. Lil' Eck is about .060 off his 2002 form. While I'm willing to ascribe that to small sample size, he's been in a slump ever since the 4/10 game against Texas.
- Erstad should not be batting second, in the same way that it ought to be a criminal offense for Roseann Barr to wear spandex in public.
- Not part of this lineup, but, hey, it's good for a laugh: Salmon's abysmal April. It's now said that Salmon has pain in his knees from playing right field. That can't be good for his batting stance.
Wednesday, April 21, 2004 |
TMI
"I wouldn't call this a slow start, I'd call it a bad start," Weber said. "My arm feels good, my stuff looks good, and it's not like I'm getting crushed or anything…. Oh, great, now that I said that, I'll probably get crushed. And I've got nothing left to shave."Not... going... to ... go ... there... please, for the love of God, no...
Nofuey
But, like all disagreements between parties where the decisions are being made by one side alone, a simple explanation can go a long way. Say you give your unemployed brother-in-law fifty grand to start a business marketing a meat-based tofu substitute called "Nofu." And say that after two months he's sold $6.50 worth of product, all to the Army for use in the Guantanamo Bay confinement camp. You'd be a little annoyed, right? But what if your brother-in-law showed you evidence that a new species of bean curd weevil was poised to wipe out traditional sources of tofu, and that everyone who loves the freakish texture and disturbing cubism of tofu will be forced to buy his product at a premium in a month?Naturally, adopting the pseudo-wisdom gibberish of The Matrix, the truth is that there are no tofu weevils, just as there is no reason for Erstad to be batting second, or for Ortiz to be in the rotation. Lackey, on the other hand, tonight gave those of us watching the games a little hope -- for the first time this year, he collected a strikeout, no, make that two strikeouts, making a grand total of... lessee here ... carry the one ... that's three, three strikeouts! Ha ha ha! Okay, Sesame Street Count imitations aside, it was easily John's* best outing this year, giving up only (!) three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. In fact, except for the seven strikeouts Ranger starter R. A. Dickey collected, both had remarkably similar lines:
| Starter | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Dickey | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | Lackey | 6.2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Even their last names are only off by a syllable. For a guy born without his ulnar collateral ligament -- i.e., the thing they replace in Tommy John surgery -- the guy did amazingly well.
But.
It's clear some things need to change. The Angels won't make those changes. We'll keep hearing about those tofu weevils. And the Angels will keep losing, just like they did tonight. Ladies and gentlemen, I present your third-place Angels.
I remember a time when I was really optimistic about this team. Honest. And now, Bobby Jenks has injured his pitching elbow for the second time in two years. Jenks was one of those guys who Arte was counting on to offset some of the expensive free agents he's been buying lately. I've been high on Jenks for a while, but between him and Keystone Kop Casey Kotchman, it's looking like injuries are going to eat this team's best prospects alive.
Update: Oh, yeah, and Scioscia -- pinch running José for Benjie?? No, doofus, you use Figgy for that. Yeah, Kennedy GIDPs immediately thanks to that move. Sheesh.
*Did anybody else notice the homepage screwup where he's been renamed "Robert Lackey"? Maybe he's been replaced with somebody else all this time. Whatever, can we just get the guy who can make his outs back?
Dodgers 9, Rockies 4
Tonight it was Dave Roberts all over again, stealing, stealing, and stealing again for his twelfth of the year, sparking a Dodgers lineup that even included yet another Beltre home run and a single. Green's less-than-encouraging lack of extra-base hits was almost made up for by his two walks and a single. Was Nomo less-than-stellar, allowing four earned runs? Well, he got the win, and Dreifort looked pretty sharp. It seemed to me that a lot of pitches were thrown by both sides, possibly a side effect of the weather being so extremely cold (it snowed lightly at one point). "First place Dodgers" -- well, I certainly didn't think it would happen this year.
Roster Moves
Arizona Diamondback Roberto Alomar will miss two months thanks to an HBP on the hand. His career is in twilight now, but baseball-reference.com's Jamesian HoF Monitor ranks him as a should-be-a-first-ballot-Hall-of-Fame kinda guy.
Lastly, it looks like Japanese longshot Yoshitaka Mizuo will join Salt Lake soon. Not a big deal -- he's a fairly old guy (35) with middling stuff, but the Angels figured they could use the pitching depth. Good luck...
Schadenfreude
- Westwood Blues: Drawing inspiration from the 2004 Kansas City Royals and their slogan of "October: Juntos Podemos!" (together, we can!), an editor at Baseball Primer, asked readers to come up with slogans for the other teams in baseball. Some anonymous smart ass designated the slogan of the 2004 Giants to be: "Bonds and Schmidt and bunch of shit."
- El Lefty Malo: As I mentioned in that post way back when, I'm tired of the punch-and-Judy, Barry-Bonds-and-the-Seven-Dwarfs crap, the good clubhouse chemistry that doesn't mean shit once the players take the field. I want Milton Bradley in center field. I want Juan Gonzalez. I want a group of malcontents who break things in the dugout and hit the crap out of the ball. [Well, jeez, you had Jeff Kent!]
- Waiting for Boof: As the first Dodger series of the year approached, the Giants furrowed their collective brow, and screamed, "Not in our house!" Then the Dodgers let themselves in, as the Giants said, "Well, okay, you can come in. But you'll have to take off your shoes!" The Dodgers did no such thing, and tracked mud over the very expensive, non-publicly funded carpets. "Okay," said the Giants, "you don't have to take your shoes off, but please, we beg of you, don't crap in the aquarium." This, of course, was a request not honored, and began the desperate search for anything resembling a fish net or pool skimmer.
Tuesday, April 20, 2004 |
Buenas Noches, Ramon*

¿Ramon, dónde es la goma?
Kevin Gregg escapes without allowing an earned run, while Ortiz melts down again. Ortiz has a cheap contract; it might be eatin' time again. Gregg, you're promoted. Welcome to the rotation.
Or at least, that's what I'd do, or Shields. But the Angels won't do it, just like they won't move Erstad, just like they won't stick a fork in Salmon. Well, he gets another few days at least -- his history of awful Aprils gives one reason to think he's gonna come around.
At least Osama shaved his beard; perhaps its mass was slowing his delivery. But -- Kenny Rogers? The Angels lose to the chicken man? Twice? Ugh.
And how embarrassing is it that Lackey (11.00) has nearly twice the ERA as the Rangers' starter in tomorrow's game, R. A. Dickey (6.94)? Ugh, and ugh again.
*My apologies for the fractured Spanish.
Beane Counters
The daughter already had skipped west, seduced by dreams of Hollywood. Now the son approached the father, thanking him for that Harvard education but explaining that he would pursue a career in professional sports."Foreclose" -- it's a funny, lawyerly choice of words introducing a story in today's Times about the "new" generation of statistics-based GMs in the business. While the Times previously has made idiotic comments as if guys like Branch Rickey weren't paying attention to this back in the day, this time they manage to get it right:He resisted the lure of proper jobs for the Ivy League graduate, the ones with six-figure salaries — investment banker, management consultant and the like.
John DePodesta — a Harvard grad himself, lawyer, and co-founder of an international telecommunications company — listened as his son Paul declared he would work for no salary, throwing T-shirts into the stands as an intern for a Canadian Football League team.
"I told him to go for it," John DePodesta said. "Having spent much of my life dealing with lawyers, investment bankers and consultants, and hearing how frustrated they were in midcareer by not following their passions, I could not foreclose an opportunity for my son to pursue that."
Branch Rickey, the Dodgers' legendary general manager, wrote about the importance of reaching base half a century before the term "on-base percentage" crept into the vernacular. Earl Weaver, the Baltimore Orioles' Hall of Fame manager, sat back and waited for a three-run homer three decades before anyone had calculated the value of playing for one run against the chance of scoring three.When DePodesta thinks about the additional resources the Dodgers (supposedly) have versus the A's,
... he doesn't necessarily mean pumping money into the pockets of free agents.Interesting, then that in Anaheim, they're feeling threatened by all of this:"You can spend more on player payroll, which is great," he said. "You can actually spend more off the field too, whether it be on scouts or systems or video or software. I'm actually as excited, if not more excited, about that kind of stuff than I am about having the player payroll."
"Our guys can use a computer too, but there's a lot more to it," Angel scouting director Eddie Bane said last fall. "There are computer teams out there, trying to take a hit at scouts. Myself and some of the other guys are trying to prove them wrong. It's really a threat to our industry."Well, I wish them all the luck in the world. I've said in the past that Moneyball isn't enough information to run a ballclub with; if Beane and company were smart, they'd keep their mouths shut, or let Michael Lewis paint an incomplete, inaccurate picture. I still think that's true. It doesn't erase gleaned wisdom like Voros' work that K/9 and BB/9 are more important than ERA or win-loss numbers when evaluating pitchers, but it does mean that subjective evaluations are decidedly under the gun to produce -- as they should be.
Let me give you an example from my own life. I work for a company that specializes in comparison shopping. It's a free service we provide to our site visitors, but our customers are the retailers who sell the products. To them, we're a kind of advertising -- a new and different kind in that they can look (if they choose, and the better among them do) to see exactly how many prospects we referred to them become customers. One reason we've prospered is because potential buyers leaving our site become actual buyers at a higher rate than most others in our business. There's an old saying regarding advertising: "I'm wasting half my ad budget, but I don't know which half." And that's always been true in traditional media, because it's so difficult to tell the effect an ad had on a particular customer. Well, for on-line advertising, that saw is absolutely untrue: you can tell almost immediately where you're wasting your money. Does our success mean that billboards, print, radio, and TV are suddenly obsolete? No, but it might inspire some ad buyers to get more scientific about understanding the results of their spending.
And that's the point, I think, of Moneyball: you have to be able to back up assertions. That doesn't obsolete the presence of a traditional scouting staff; the A's certainly have one. But you can bet they're run differently than most of the other scouting staffs in baseball.
Monday, April 19, 2004 |
Pickoff Moves
OT: Corporate Shenanigans
In case you missed it, McDonald's CEO died of an apparent heart attack, news that will come no doubt as welcome to that company's many detractors. Look out, hot dog vendors, you might be next on their list. And the Angels' old CEO, Michael Eisner, is about to get booted, with a flurry of no-confidence votes, the latest being a 72.5% vote rejecting the Disney President by the company's 401k shareholders. Well, there's a drawback of 401k plans.Weber Missing A Few MPH?
Ken Rosenthal relays a report that Ben Weber's lost some velocity which he could ill-afford to lose:A scout says of Angels RHP Ben Weber, "He has certainly gone backward. He's not nearly as sharp. He got away with some command mistakes in the past because he had a little extra something that last 10 to 15 feet. He doesn't have it now." Another scout says Weber's fastball is 87-88 mph, down from 90 to 92, giving him little separation from his slider. Angels pitching coach Bud Black says Weber's velocity is fine. . . .Whatever, but his early outings sure make it look like he's out of gas.
Joe Torres, Meet Tommy John
An ulnar collateral ligament repair by any other name is spelled Tommy John, and Angel first-round draft pick Joe Torres will get very familiar with it, as he's taking the rest of the season off to recover from it."In Boise, his velocity was fine, 92-93 (mph)," farm director Tony Reagins said. "The following offseason, he lifted a lot, got bulkier and a lot less fluid. I think that's when his velocity kind of went away. He never got back to 91 or 92."Um, okay, but if it's true that Tommy John surgery ages a prospect five years without gaining him any experience, that's gotta be a bad sign.Reagins said Torres hit 89-90 mph at times last season, before the injury that now threatens his stalled career. But some pitchers recover velocity after surgery, and for all his troubles, he's still just 21. "If he's right, he's still a guy," Reagins said. "Health is always a question. For me, yeah, he's still a prospect."
Selig? Or Circus Freak?
You decide:
Thanks to Baseball Primer's Clutch Hits for the link.
Vlad Rumor Mill
Dr. Podesta, the Dodger orthopedic surgeon, but who also sees Vladimir Guerrero, told me that Guerrero's back is as bad or worse than Hundley's. He said that given the all out way Guerrero plays coupled with his condition, there is no way he will play a full season. He went on to say that it wasn't even a dice roll that the Angels signed him long term, but more like a dice roll with blank dice.Well, aren't they all. And who's this "Podesta" character? Does he mean Frank Jobe? Eh, whatever, but for my money, I'd just as soon see them give Vlad a couple actual days off. He hasn't been swinging the bat too well against Oakland (Saturday's game excepted) and I'm wondering that his knees aren't the reason why.
Update: Well, there is a Dr. Podesta on staff at the Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic where team physician Dr. Jobe operates, so that's plausible. But take it all with a grain of salt. A big one.
Kick 'Em When They're Down
- It's early. The Giants will wake up eventually, as will the Snakes, and the Padres.
- Beltre's finally hitting in a month not named September. I just happened to look at his line: .362/.367/.681. One walk. That last number might change if pitchers start to think maybe he's hitting the way he's been billed all these years.
- Three consecutive homers! Yowzah. Too bad I missed that one. Ross gets another one. Though he's not hitting as well as last year in limited action this year, it's an excuse to get him in the lineup.
- Brett Tomko? The Giants' home park is one of the most pitcher-friendly in the bigs, but yesterday's game shows that kind of magic can only do so much. That the Giants have dropped to using a guy like Tomko -- ex-Padre, ex-Cardinal -- tells you volumes about this club's pitching staff. Every starter past Schmidt is suspect.
- Gagné's return to form. The ace reliever looked like his old self yesterday, collecting a three-strikeout close. Now, this I did see, and he shut up the crowd very effectively.
Sunday, April 18, 2004 |
The Lion That Squeaked
That's the "good news".
The bad news is the team is 12th in ERA (5.40 team average), and second in runs allowed (68, a four-way tie with the Twins, Tigers, and Indians).
Okay, it's early. Really, I'm not panicing.
But it's looking like the BP analysts are sadly on the mark here.
Saturday, April 17, 2004 |
Pickoff Moves
Vote For Lou Bites The Dust
Not that anyone cared -- it became a cobweblog at some point in the last two months, really just as it got started -- but Vote For Lou is gone.Dodgers 5, Giants 4
Lima time? Jeez, well, I guess. I have to now eat some crow over my early prognostication on the team's fortunes. The Dodgers might not tear up the world, but they stand a fighting chance in the division, if this week's returns are to be believed. Taking a series from the Giants on their turf is surely the best of all possible signs, and for José Lima -- the Dodgers' fifth, and emergency, starter -- to be the one to do it is especially sweet. This was another one we missed, ironically because the wife and I were out looking for TVs, our present model being fifteen years old and slightly gimpy.Bradley goes yard in the enemy's house? Good sign, too, says Dave Roberts:
"For the second straight game, we got an insurance run in the ninth inning and it was the difference," noticed Dave Roberts. "We can play little ball, we can hit home runs, we can situational-hit. We're winning a lot of games while showing different ways to win."Yeah, well don't get cocky kid. It's not like the game board man's Pujols or anybody. Gagné turned in yet another shaky performance, and while I've maybe been too harsh on the guy lately -- was he this shaky last year at this time? -- I'm still nervous that the streak is over and he's unraveling in front of us.
But. Hot damn!
Angels 6, A's 4
Dear Mike,This game was amazing principally because Washburn actually won it. He should have lost it, for two reasons:Next time there's a save situation, leave Frankie in.
That is all.
Love,Rob.
- He was at home. Wash at the A has a losing record (okay, not by much -- 20-21, but with an amazing 21 no decisions, since 1999) at home.
- He was pitching against the A's, against whom he also has a losing record (4-6, 3.48 ERA in 15 starts).
Final score, 6-3.
Walking The Birds

I asked them why they would do such a thing -- what was the point? The birds were still caged, even though they could sing, they got no special enjoyment from their prison being moved, even if temporarily, into the park. Naturally, none of the men professed to speak English, and so I went away as puzzled as when I first set eyes on the scene.
Such is the case with the Angels' use of Darin Erstad. I mean, I understand at some level the desire to keep him healthy by playing him at first base, but his defensive star shines brightest in centerfield. As well, there's no compelling evidence that Erstad hits better or stays healthier when playing first. But thanks to a communication gap between myself and the Angels organization, I'm stuck writing this blog instead of fixing the team so we have an actual chance of being something besides a .500 team -- where we almost are now and will be today if the A's win, a not unlikely scenario. Were I Stoneman, here's what I'd do:
- Move Guillen for a quality 1B. His contract and its duration is actually quite reasonable. It's not like his contract will weigh down the team for too many years.
- Move Erstad back to CF.
- Put Scot Shields in the rotation. He proved he's got the arm and the pitches last year. Instead of pitching in relief in ST, he should have been working on a third and fourth pitch and increasing his stamina.
- Move Anderson back to LF.
- If you can't stand Shields in the rotation, put Sele there. Sele had a better ST than Ortiz, and not by a little, posting a 4.24 ERA versus Ortiz's 6.66. (Is that an omen or what?) Why isn't he in the rotation?
- If possible, move one or both of Sele and Ortiz, possibly as part of the 1B trade mentioned earlier.
New Angels Wallpapers
Dodgers 3, Giants 2
Angels 0, A's 3
Colón gave up a home run in the third to Oakland's backup catcher. And here in the top of the fifth, the Angels are being outhit 5-1.
Hudson breezes through the lineup.
Colón gets in jams.
Okay, Vlad's got knee problems. And if I poked around long enough, I could find some other things that would justify the offense's lousy outing against Hudson. (He's typically had Glaus locked up his whole career. 0-4 with three strikeouts is pretty much what you'd call dominant.) But this looks way too familiar.
Friday, April 16, 2004 |
Dogging It
If you keep kosher and you’re a Dodger fan, enjoying a hot dog in Chavez Ravine is about as remote as right field, about as unlikely as a championship pennant or of even harboring thoughts of baseball in October in Los Angeles. And that’s too bad.I can not only sympathize with Steve, I second the notion. Many years ago as a tike, at a school fair I wolfed down a regular hot dog of some uncertain pedigree. Later that evening, my stomach rejected it in colorful, bile-laden glory, leaving me feeling quite the worse for it. Ever since that discovery, I've found I can't eat conventional hot dogs without feeling extremely queasy, and in fact prefer kosher dogs. Dodger Dogs are fine, but as they say, not quite what they used ta be. As I'm a client for any gustatory improvement, I relish the idea and give it my hearty approval.... It’s the right time for the Dodger front office to acknowledge the significant Jewish fan base in Los Angeles and make plans to consistently link us up with a kosher product that we can put in a bun of our own — every game, not just on Jewish Community Night.
