6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

Despite a less-than-brilliant performance, Escobar managed to keep the team in it. Anderson celebrated signing a one-sided contract by going 0-4 with no walks and no RBIs. Shields pitched his way into and out of a jam, but no harm was done, and he managed to pick up the win as well. Erstad went 3-3 with a walk -- boosting his average to .270 -- and even slumping Salmon collected a hit and an RBI, though he did look lost in right field. Guillen smacked a double down the third base line and drove in the winning runs. Heck, even Percy had a good night, retiring all three batters faced (albeit on a remarkably large number of pitches). But the crowning moment in tonight's game had to go to Benjie, who slammed one into the Angels' bullpen to tie the game in the sixth.

Final score, Mariners 5, Angels 7.

The man Athletics Nation calls the "Shaft of baseball" has been resigned for four years with a club option for a fifth. No doubt but this will be a hefty contract, one Purgatory Online estimates is around $11-$13M/year. Here at 6-4-2, we take this as good news that the aliens have returned him, and hopefully none the worse for wear. Thanks for the link, Sean!

Update: on the money, $48M over four years. That's one heck of a big gamble.

Update: The more I think about this, the less I like the deal. GA took advantage of Arte's neck-sticking and got far more in dollars and years than he should have been given. What this comes down to is Stoneman betting that the 37-year-old version of Anderson will hit as well as the 32-year-old version. It's about as bad as the Salmon deal, and will be coincident with it for a couple years. PECOTA (subscription required) projects Anderson to take a substantial dip in value starting this year, with an eye-popping 36.4% collapse rate this year alone. Many of his comps (Tony Oliva 1972, Joe Pepitone 1972, Ted Kluszewski 1956, George Bell 1991, Orlando Cepeda 1969, and Dante Bichette 1995) started or were in the midst of substantial declines. It looks startlingly like another move based more on sentiment than sense. The major caveat with PECOTA is that Anderson only picks up 35 comps, so as crystal balls go, it's a pretty foggy one. Chalk it up to Stoneman's inability to discern from career years, a flaw that got Scott Spiezio resigned as a starting first baseman in 2003.

Update yet again: U.S.S. Mariner agrees with me, and even goes so far as to say Arte could prove to be another Tom Hicks. All that, of course, predicated on PECOTA's accuracy. For sure, I wouldn't have given GA that much dough for that many years.

Weaver = Brown?

Does Baseball Prospectus like the Dodgers' chances this year? Well, maybe. The magazine seems to have a bad case of schizophrenia. One day, they're picking them to finish fourth, and the next they're heaping praise on Paul DePodesta for picking up outfielder/petty criminal Milton Bradley. (As usual, some or all of these links require a BP subscription.) While BP hasn't recalibrated their standings, the news is mostly good on the Dodgers' chances, with Hideo Nomo remaining a big question mark. Joe Sheehan is even more optimistic (Nomo aside), declaring Weaver might be Brown's equal this year:

Jeff Weaver, Dodgers. Part hunch, part context, and his brutal spring doesn't make me feel any better about this selection. While Kevin Brown is the better pitcher of the two, much of the differences between the ERAs of Weaver and Brown last year was context: ballpark, league and defense. You can't make a more extreme move right now than going from Yankee Stadium and their middle infield to Dodger Stadium and theirs. That alone moves the two pitchers to within a run of ERA of each other. I think Weaver takes advantage of the context to get his command back, and ends up having comparable value--within a win, in Support-Neutral or VORP terms--of Brown.

I like Weaver's chances to improve, but I'm not that convinced. As I said earlier, he looks to improve a lot, but a 4.07 ERA is nothing like Kevin Brown's nasty sub-3.00's he regularly posts when healthy. Still, it didn't hurt that his first outing ended in the "W" column.

"Party Arte" All Business

In case you missed it, today's Times carries an article about the Angels under Arte Moreno. Arte's clearly got a game plan: winning breeds financial success. Whether he can pull that off with an unimaginative GM remains to be seen, but he's got a long way to go. TV revenue still "lags far behind the Dodgers'", but this could merely be the prelude to something I've speculated on previously, the opening of a new cable channel:

The Angels' contract with Channel 9 expires next year, and the contract with Fox Sports Net expires in 2008. The Fox contracts with the Lakers, Mighty Ducks and Clippers all expire by 2008, and the Angels have considered the possibility of starting their own cable channel — or threatening to — in partnership with other local pro teams. Disney lost interest in owning the Angels and Ducks after its plans for an ESPN West cable channel collapsed.

"We are exploring everything," Moreno said. "There are some great teams in L.A. You've got showtime there."

And HBO, and Cinemax, etc. The point is, even if this year is less-than-stellar, Arte could spin off his own cable network four years from now, something the Dodgers won't be able to do for years.

The Dodgers traded minor league prospect RHP Aaron Looper back to Seattle for LHP Glen Bott.

Bott, a 22-year-old left-hander, was 7-7 with a 3.16 ERA, 143 strikeouts and 38 walks last year at Single-A. He will report to the Dodgers' Double-A Jacksonville club.

Mariners Wheelhouse has a bit more on this trade, saying that this makes things more even, though I disagree; getting Ketchner was a steal, and if Bott's K/BB ratio is 3.76, I'll take that as a huge positive, even though he's untested above single-A. Score another one for DePodesta.

Bottom of the 3rd

This game is pure vivisection. Wash is shaky against this lineup, not a big surprise; he hasn't had a 1-2-3 inning yet. Colby Lewis is worse, with hideous control problems, but the Angels' offense isn't taking advantage. All tied, 2-2, but the Rangers are outhitting us, 5-2. Wash loses confidence, tries to make a buncha pickoffs with Soriano at first and Teixeira at the plate. Pitch, already. One bona fide strikeout and a popup to Erstad later, the inning's over.

Top of the 4th

Halter unexpectedly doubles, and Molina dribbles him in on a weakly hit single. Molina's batting ninth? Kennedy's moved up to the seven hole. Note to MLB.com: please... fix... Gameday... The batter view is wrong about a quarter of the time, so it looks like Eckstein flied out to center, when it was really Erstad. Man, the E-team is definitely not an E-ticket so far this year -- at least, Ersty isn't.

Top of the 5th

After an uneventful bottom of the third -- good for Wash for finally collecting another K -- Vlad grounds out, but then GA strokes one into center for a single, and Guillen walks. The charge that he's a free swinger is a strong one, so it's nice to see him get a free pass, especially against a pitcher as shaky as Lewis. Grr. Salmon flies out. C'mon, AK, do something. Please to note, "something" does not equal "popping up to the shortstop". Grr.

Bottom of the 6th

Wash gets shaky, and now Blalock singles in two. Enter Osama Ben Weber, with a predictable result: Fullmer clears the bases with a double. Note to self: see if we can get Weber listed in FAA's TIA system so we won't see him in road games. Ha, ha, Brad, very funny. The ironic part is we would be better off having kept him (at 1B, anyway), not signing Guillen, and leave Erstad at center. Oh well. Those uncashed baserunners in the early innings are starting to look expensive now.

Top of the 8th

Angels get on base, Shane Halter (subbing for Troy Glaus, who "tweaked a hamstring" in the wet infield running the bases Sunday) drives one in. 7-4.

Top of the 9th

You call that a closer? But, close it he does, even after two runs score. Final score, 7-6.

---

I want a recount. I want better pitching. Wash did okay -- by his usual nailbiter flyballer standards -- until he ran out of gas in the sixth, but the team has too much invested in guys who aren't enough at their positions, whether on the mound, at the plate, or in the outfield. CoTL observes -- again, read into this at your own risk because of sample size issues -- that the Angels are dead last in the majors in fielded fly ball percentages. I agree with him that if there are in fact defensive problems in centerfield, that will not be recognized and/or dealt with. But it's been obvious to anyone watching the games: Anderson is overmatched in centerfield.

I hate the X-Nation sobriquet. It speaks of chutzpah to me, and the idiot fan's pathetic, hyperinflated sense of collective self.

It started with the Red Sox, who, as far as I am concerned, may keep it for their own.

It moved on, thanks to Frank's greasy ownership, to the Dodgers, though mercifully the expression has not found wide currency of yet. Now, improbably, the Yankees have become infected with this peculiar disease. The latest superstar du jour, ex-Dodger Bubba Crosby, has become an instant hit in his last several at bats, slamming a three run shot out of the park and holding on to a win for Mike Mussina, as well as making a number of sterling defensive plays. These were skills he never displayed in Chavez Ravine. Crosby, moved in the Ventura trade, may have given Yankee fans quite the thrill, the throng at the Bronx being unaccustomed to actual rookies. What many may not realize is they may have also unwittingly witnessed Bubba's best half-dozen or so at bats of his career. While I'm quite happy for Crosby -- who, had he failed, would no doubt find himself on the business end of New York's heavy flensing machinery -- also bears the burden of, for the first time to my memory, appearing coincidentally with the expression "Yankee Nation":

"I'm sure [Steinbrenner] knows everything that's going on," Crosby said. "I haven't really met him other than to shake his hand the other day. But I'm sure he knows there's a Bubba on this team."

All of Yankee Nation knows now, and if Bubba still has to go when Lee is activated, we know something else too: He'll be leaving us dirty.

The curse spreads, and so now we know that it is the Orioles' or the Blue Jays' year. But, whoever it may be, please, let us hear of this abomination no more.

Over at the Long Beach Press-Telegram, columnist Bob Keisser is already thinking about next year, and in particular, the meaning of the horrible outings against Texas had by Lackey, Ortiz, and Sele:

The back of the pitching staff was ripped by Texas' lively bats and lively ball park, which just proves you can never have too much pitching. I'm confident Mike Scioscia and Bud Black will get something out of the Ramon Ortiz-John Lackey- Aaron Sele mix, and maybe add a prospect like Bobby Jenks around mid-season.

The big worry for Angel fans is the prospect of Arte Moreno having to settle on signing one of their two stars eligible for free agency next season, Troy Glaus and Garret Anderson. They're both indispensable, but having spent heavily in the offseason, he may have only enough payroll for one.

Such has been theorized previously. No matter how much of a fan an owner appears to be, they usually -- unless the owner in question is George Steinbrenner -- have limits to their spending. (Sometimes the limits are ridiculously low, as in the case of the Devil Rays.) There's no way of knowing what Arte's real payroll ceiling is, but a closer analysis certainly indicates that both Sele and Appier -- yes, Kevin Appier is still on the payroll in 2004 -- will be gone next year. That's a total of $20 million right there. Arte's already spent a lot of that money on Vlad, Colón and Escobar -- more than that, in fact. In 2004, he'll spend $14M for Vlad and Colón, and $6.25M for Escobar, or $34.25M on three players.

Sele we know is done, or likely so; it's possible we could get a final year out of him before he completely falls apart. But Ortiz has had chance after chance, and still isn't reliably producing, and of course has Agegate issues as well. Both have declining K/9 rates; both posted career lows, Sele 3.92 and Ortiz 4.70, last year. And then there's Lackey, whose excuse of having a sophomore slump ran out last year. If the team has to replace Sele, Ortiz, and possibly Lackey by the end of the year, Arte's wallet could indeed be tapped already. Combined with the near certainty of Darin Erstad having an unproductive year at the plate, and the strong possibility that Salmon will also, that's a lot of hitting to replace. If Baseball Prospectus is right and the Angels finish third, the team will have spent a lot of money for nothing -- and won't have enough in the farm to fix either the rotation or the DH position any time soon. Jenks might be able to help this year, but you certainly can't count on rookies to pull a Fernando Valenzuela.

The A's, despite a long denial, have finally admitted Mark Ellis' season is over. Athletics Nation speculates his career as an A might be over, too, though Tyler doesn't say why. I saw the collision in spring training that sent him down, which seemed to me to be essentially preventable. There's speculation he could end up a Dodger; from that point of view, we here at 6-4-2 wish him a speedy, but not-too-speedy, recovery.

Yeah, you heard it right. Doug Pappas in Business of Baseball passes on a Bud Selig interview indicating just how desperate MLB is to unload the Expos: they're seriously considering gambling mecca Las Vegas:

"They've been aggressive," Selig said of the Vegas suitors.

Could baseball put a team in a city dominated by the gambling industry?

"I was raised in an era when it wouldn't have been plausible," Selig said, "but the fact of the matter is gambling is legal most everywhere today. There are a whole lot of hurdles out there, but Las Vegas is a viable consideration. Thirty years ago, we would have automatically eliminated them. It's different now. No decision has been made, but they are being very aggressive."

What might that mean for the Dodgers' 51's? Considering the big club has pressured the city to make substantial improvements to Cashman Field, it might make sense for Vegas city fathers to take the next step and move the Expos into town. The Dodgers would then have to find another AAA home, something that might end up a positive, considering the enormous disconnect between their major league park and their minors. (You can read more on this in this Futility Infielder article and here in Mariners Wheelhouse.)

On the other hand, it could just be a bargaining ploy to get Washington to pony up. That would be odd, considering the recent news that Washington, D.C. has proposed a $340 million publically financed stadium.

Prior May Need Tommy John Surgery?

While normally this blog covers the Dodgers and Angels, I do have a rooting interest by marriage in the Cubs. The New Jersey Star-Ledger reports a rumor that Mark Prior may require Tommy John surgery thanks to Dusty's overuse of him. This would pretty much put their hopes of winning the division, let alone getting into the World Series, at an end. It also comes as something of a surprise, because as recently as April 6th, Will Carroll's "Under the Knife" column for Baseball Prospectus said he was playing catch in Cincinnati. Prior started the season on the 15-day DL and is not expected to be available until May.

Lenny Harris To Hang 'Em Up

Longtime pinch hitter Lenny Harris is calling it a career after this year. His goal is to get 19 pinch hits, which will get him 200 over his career.

Dayn Perry Vets DePoDodgers

Dayn Perry in his April 9th column (subscription required) vets the Dodgers' recent pickups. He continues to make the common wrong assumption about the team's cash flow ("cash to the Dodgers is like dog hair on dark shirts to me: more at my disposal than I know what to do with"), which still makes me wonder whether he's paying attention to anything outside his immediate field of expertise. But his takes on the player trades jibe well with my own ("All six deals, from the L.A. perspective, range from tremendous to patently sensible"), especially the Ketchner acquisition ("you don't pass up an opportunity to grab a flipper like Ketchner for almost nothing"). The big surprise to me was the Cody Ross deal; I thought it was nothing special, but Perry writes that

This deal and the [Ketchner deal] are the ones that hew closest to the status of thievery probably addressed somewhere in the Patriot Act. In Colyer, DePo surrendered a fairly vanilla minor league reliever with sub-optimal control. What they got was a 23-year-old center fielder who slugged .507 in Double-A and .515 in Triple-A. The downside is that Ross tore his ACL late last season, but he's young enough to rebound without it hurting his baseball chops much.

Good stuff, and nice to see my own feelings are vindicated.

Roberts Stealing His Way Out Of Town?

Base stealer Dave Roberts has heard Paul DePodesta doesn't like the running game. I have to believe that it's not so much base-stealing but getting caught stealing that is the problem. Dave's success rate is such that I can't imagine him being moved for that, though I can imagine his weak bat and poor OBP being moved for someone with a real bat. He's one of the Dodgers more exciting players to watch, but unfortunately for him, my guess is he's ultimately destined elsewhere.

Jeff Nelson at Mariners Wheelhouse wrote me about my article on minor league park factors that

I noted that you also picked up the info on park factors. But when you take a park out of it's league, you need to adjust the park factor for the league in which they play.

Vero Beach is not a hitters park - it's only a hitters park in comparison with the FSL.

Later, he added:

I just about got trapped in it, because I had a whole piece composed about how Gutierrez might not be as good as advertised because he had played half his games in an extreme hitters park at Vero Beach, even though FSL is a pitchers. Then it dawned that not a single park in the FSL has a factor as low as the leage factor. Then I figured out that the the parks are only calibrated within the league.

Ah, good point, Jeff. So let's go back and reconsider those park factors:

	Angels		Dodgers
Level	Team	Factor	Team	Factor
A	Cedar Rapid Kernels	1001	Vero Beach Dodgers	987
A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	1097	Columbus Catfish	986
AA	Arkansas Travelers	1164	Jacksonville Suns	858
AAA	Salt Lake Stingers	1225	Las Vegas 51's	1083

All the Dodgers parks are pitchers parks -- though in the case of Columbus and Vero Beach, not by very much -- below the AAA level. Conversely, 100% of the Angels' minor league parks are hitter's parks, period. Good stuff, and thanks for that catch, Jeff.

Nomo-san pitched well today in a 7-4 win, albeit a bit shakily in the second, when he threw 41 pitches. Beltre slammed another one over the fence, and drove in a run on a sac fly. What bugged me, though, was watching Gagné's performance on the mound. He looked like he was missing his game face, and he just didn't have his A stuff out there tonight, throwing a lot of pitches, and generally with poor command of the strike zone. He gave up a hit, but struck out two anyway. Overall, it made for a wonderful recovery from Nomo's season opener, although the 108 pitches in six innings makes me wonder if his velocity drop isn't going to bug him more as the season wears on.

---

I mentioned earlier today that the pitching is suspect, and I still cling to that statement. Paul DePodesta, it seems, agrees with me:

The Dodgers got Bradley for their anemic offense. Interestingly, GM Paul DePodesta has indicated to fellow executives he actually doesn't like his rotation either, which was supposed to be a strength. L.A. is spending about $30 million on Darren Dreifort (bumped to the pen), Kaz Ishii (control problems), Hideo Nomo (lost velocity) and Jeff Weaver (good first start off of a horrid spring). It has been so bad DePodesta has offered some hesitancy about moving Odalis Perez, though he is a malcontent in his walk year represented by Scott Boras.

One player DePodesta has revealed he could move that the previous regime would not is elite set-up man Guillermo Mota. The prospect he did move for Bradley, outfielder Franklin Gutierrez, was compared to a young Ellis Burks by a scout who watched him all last year in Single-A.

Surprising that, but I suppose middle relievers are a dime a dozen, yes? Or else he's convinced he's got ten of those in the Dodger system just waiting for a chance.

Lackey lived down to my expectations today, getting chased even before the fourth was over. He showed that he's still a journeyman -- or maybe that the season is early -- in today's 12-6 loss to the Rangers. Weber improved on his abysmal Seattle outing earlier in the week, but no matter what happens, he always makes me nervous on the mound -- he never gets strikeouts, just about. Meantime, the offense somehow managed to get slowed down by, of all things, Ranger pitching, and in particular, the Ranger bullpen, most specifically in the person of ex-Mariner, ex-Yankee Jeff Nelson.

Which makes me worried about facing the A's, who have actual pitching. But outside of the marginal pitching, the Angels face two very real problems this year: Tim Salmon's .050 and Erstad's .200 batting averages. Both could very possibly become league average hitters this year.

Ishii pitched a gem last night, for him, anyway, issuing four free passes and four strikeouts in six innings of work while only giving up a single run against a capable hitting lineup. We now know enough about Dodger Stadium to say authoritatively that it's a severe pitcher's park, and at no time more so than April and May when the air is cool and damp at night games. Walk-and-wiggle, as Vin has called him from time to time, benefitted from this, throwing a mess of breaking pitches. Ishii gets a W and the Dodgers streak proceeds to three. My skepticism about the Dodgers' long term chances has not abated any, though. (Neither, as if it needed any reinforcement, has that of Dodger Blues.) Recognizing that it's still early, here's the continued problems:

• Middle infield offense. Despite Alex Cora's triple last night, he's hitting .143 in the regular season thus far, despite a gaudy .391 in spring training. And while Izturis' .313 represents even a step up from his .306 in spring training, you have to wonder just how many more at bats he's going to be able to keep that up. Further, the hitters haven't seen any teams with genuinely solid pitching to date; let's see him do that against Jason Schmidt or Randy Johnson.
• First base. Shawn Green seems to be settling in defensively better than expected, yet his bat sleeps (.188/.278/.375). Jon's already weighed in on this subject, and frankly my reading of it is toward the black end of that scale, i.e. Green's shoulder is permanently on vacation, and the likelihood of getting power from 1B is nil.
• Encarnacion will scare us throughout the year; his .188/.235/.313 says all you need to know about his streakiness, and why he was benched last year in the World Series (for the most part). He was a nice cheap pickup by Evans amidst the McCourt purchase maelstrom, but you can be certain DePo will unload this guy at the first opportunity for a real hitter.
• The Dodgers still can't score, and trail the division again in runs scored. However, eleventh in the league beats last.
• Update: How could I forget pitching after Nomo's shellacking on opening day? But today's outing calmed me some, though Nomo-san's 40-pitch second didn't do much to make me think he's not sputtering.

That said, the happy stories:

• Adrian Beltre's bat. Beltre is actually slugging in April; .438/.471/.813 with 2 HR's is an enormous turnaround for him. If he keeps this up, he'll be making the case for the Dodgers to keep him around, not to mention bumping him to the three slot in the batting order. This will no doubt incite riots in some quarters, but PECOTA finds guys with similar records at his age includes names like Bill Mazeroski, Robin Yount, and Brooks Robinson (BP subscription required). It also includes a large number of guys whose careers tailed off, like Aurelio Rodriguez and Wil Cordero. I won't bore you with the standard line on Beltre, but as Raul wrote the other day, time to put up or shut up, Adrian.
• The Dodgers team OBP is sixth in the National League, behind only the Padres in the division.
• Dave Roberts' kleptomania, successfully stealing six bags without getting caught caught yet.
• Paul DePodesta's Michael Milken impression. While they're early and few, the moves he's made give me confidence that he knows what he's about. Picking up Milton Bradley was a good deal for both teams; the Indians get our best hitting prospect (though they're already awash in outfielders), and we get a major-league ready hitter.
• Milton Bradley, though I qualify it heavily; in what universe does a .267/.389/.333 line -- i.e., his SLG is below his OBP? -- qualify as an "impact bat", as Dodgerkid has asserted? Whatever. Anybody approaching a .400 OBP has to be a godsend for the Blue, and I'll chalk that up in the plus column.

Who Are You, And What Did You Do With Anderson?

The space aliens have abducted Garrett, as evidenced by this comment in today's Times about the kind of hitter he is:

"I was just trying to keep it simple, hit the ball on a line, be a tough out," said Anderson, a career .294 hitter against left-handers. "I wasn't trying to go deep and be a hero. I'm a leadoff hitter. I need to get on base."

Somewhere on the mother ship, poor GA's getting colorectal probes and having electrodes attached to him in unspeakable places. His doppelgänger apparently forgot that Eckstein's OBP has been better than his two of the last three years, while GA's SLG has been substantially higher than the little guy's over that time. 6-4-2 hopes for a speedy return of the spaceborne Angel.

Live By The Longball...

... die by the longball, three in all for the Rangers. Texas can still hit -- 18 in this game alone! -- A-Rod or no A-Rod. Sele isn't fooling anybody, and neither is headcase Ortiz. Ortiz has steadily become a flyball pitcher, very bad news in a hitter's haven like Arlington, and Sele's never pitched out of the bullpen in his career. The ugly 12-4 final score vindicates the worries I had about the bottom of the rotation, and Lackey, whose taterrific tendencies accelerated last year, might be no better tomorrow.

Last year, we opened the season with a loss to the Rangers. Let's hope it's not an omen.

M's fans, I feel your pain.

Torre Unavailable For Angels Play-By-Play

Joe Torre is unfortunately unavailable to resume his role in the Angels' TV broadcast booth, as he's signed a three year extension with the Yankees to manage that east coast team. But, hey, how cool is it that Steinbrenner's general partner (and son-in-law) is a guy named Swindal?

Closeout!

Say buh bye (at a reduced price, of course) to these bobbleheads:

Richie Sexson as a Brewer	A-Rod as a Ranger	Miguel Tejada as an Athletic

Who buys these things, anyway? I guess I can understand it in a general fan way, but I have a distinct aversion to anything whose principle function is to collect dust. But that's not to say they're completely useless. One of my co-workers (a Dodgers/A's fan -- go figure!) has built a little Tommy shrine:

Tommy looks upon the good works of acolytes Green, LoDuca, and McGriff

On mane padme hum, on mane padme hum...

We are now as many as five games (for the Yankees and Devil Rays) into the season. The Angels (3-0) and -- amazingly enough -- Tigers (4-0) are the only teams still undefeated. The Brewers, for a fleeting few games, sit atop the NL Central at 3-1, a perch from which they will no doubt be thrust presently. But for an airy moment, the Tigers ride a precarious four-game win streak, and Baseball Musings carries the Detroit Tigers Weblog's author's thoughts on the subject today:

People always care about Opening Day in Detroit. It is an unofficial holiday in an around the city of Detroit. People play hooky from work and school, and start drinking very early in the morning-much like St. Patty's day. Fueled by a 3-0 start this year, the opener wasn't just about the peripheral festivities (drinking). The baseball game on the field actually took on more importance than any of the 7 previous openers I'd attended.

Even the Tigers have something to look forward to, a bit of the thing with feathers. I can't think of anything more cheerful than that on this cloudy morning.

It's always nice to see the Giants lose, and a good thing for the Pads to see them get a win in their home opener in their shiny new ballpark. Last night's game was a doozy, with heartbreakers around each corner. We listened in at home on MLB.com's Gameday Audio while moving furniture back into the house. (We are finally starting to get our life back after painting and reflooring. Hooray!) The Pads came into the ninth with a 1-0 lead, and their ace closer, Trevor Hoffman, to put the nail in -- only he didn't, and the Giants cracked open the lead on a Ray Durham double, score 2-1. The Pads tied it up 2-2 in the ninth against Matt Herges, the Giants' closer-until-further-notice, on a Burroughs single. In the tenth, ex-Dodger Marquis Grissom hit a no-doubter over the fence, nudging the Giants up by one, 3-2. Bonds almost hit one to follow out of the park, too, but Jay Payton nabbed it atop the 7'6" fence. The Pads finally won the game in the 10th on a pair of runs scored on a Miguel Ojeda double and a Shawn Burroughs single. Ducksnorts has a much better summary; and you can read the mlb.com summary here.

Baseball America today publishes minor league park factors. Here's the rundown for the Angels and Dodgers. Factors are based on 1000 as neutral, higher favoring hitters, lower favoring pitchers.

	Angels		Dodgers
Level	Team	Factor	Team	Factor
A	Cedar Rapid Kernels	1027	Vero Beach Dodgers	1102
A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	946	Columbus Catfish	1038
AA	Arkansas Travelers	1097	Jacksonville Suns	912
AAA	Salt Lake Stingers	1145	Las Vegas 51's	1012

What's surprising is how the majority of parks in both systems are hitter's parks, though the big surprise is that the so-called hitter's park of Cashman Field -- home of the 51's -- ain't all that. But Jacksonville's home field is a pronounced pitcher's park. Could that be the reason why the Dodgers weren't initially interested in seeing Edwin Jackson go to AAA, in that the lessons he might learn there would be next to useless in the very pitcher-friendly confines of Chavez Ravine? On the other hand, if you can pitch your way out of Salt Lake, you're just about ready for Coors Field. What's interesting to note is that virtually all of the A's minor league parks are pitcher's parks. The question I'd like answered: Is it an advantage or a disadvantage to have your minors' parks play similarly to your home park? The accompanying article seems to indicate that a number of clubs have decided it's an advantage and are moving in that direction, with the Rockies and Braves among them. If the trend continues, it could be very bad news for many of the clubs in the Pacific Coast and California Leagues, as many of those parks are far more extreme than most major league parks.

Factoids:

• Highest park factor: lucky 1313, for the Albuquerque Isotopes.
• Lowest park factor: 859, for the Tacoma Raniers.
• Best hitter's league: California League
• Best pitcher's league: Florida State League

Have a time, kids. Haloscan comments at the bottom of this here blog.

The daily spleenage aimed at Frank seems to be getting a little press these days. Today's five seconds comes from the Riverside Press-Enterprise, whose Jim Alexander quoted me in a story mostly about Vin Scully (all hail, registration required). Well, thanks, and any time you need some good anti-Frank quotes, just let me know. 6-4-2 is a full-service blog.

Wow.

Update: And as if my favorite simian didn't have enough going on, there's a bunch of nice changes over at rallymonkey.com: an enormous photo gallery, game times, standings-at-a-glance, copyright violations from major news media about the Angels, a slightly dysfunctional store, and more. Somebody needs to warn this guy that Rally Monkey now comes with a (tm) afterwards these days.

Right here. Thanks to Baseball Primer for the link.

Will Carroll complained yesterday about his inability to get a good margarita in Indianapolis. Well do I know that feeling. Growing up in California and then doing some extensive job-related traveling in my 20's and 30's, I formulated Rob's Theorem of Mexican Food, namely:

Quality Mexican food can only be had in a state that actually borders Mexico.

Having had simply awful simulacrums in Virginia, Florida, and Germany, I have to admit this has served me well. I'm not above mentioning that I've found exceptions to this rule: I've had solid Tex-Mex in Arkansas -- which is not quite the same thing -- along with some surprisingly underwhelming experiences in Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico, of all places. I might be willing to take a gamble in, say, Chicago or New York, as both cities are known for their gastronomic refinements, but I would wager against finding quality, cheap taqueria-style food-for-the-masses a la the much missed King Taco, which I discovered long after they left Dodger Stadium.

I came late to the KT party, introduced by a USC alum who still makes lunchtime pilgrimages from our Culver City offices to their downtown locations. Before 2003, they used to have a stand in the cheap seats at Dodger Stadium, with three tacos for $5, an unbeatable deal. I understand they left because Aramark insisted on hiring the employees -- who would of course be unionized -- and that would definitely take away from the profits, as well as the cachét.

Arte, I don't know if you're reading this, but you could do far worse than to put KT upstairs at the Angels games.

jeffweaversmom.com. 'Nuff said.

BTW, congrats to Lil' Jeffy on a successful outing and a series win.

Pow! Smack! Krrrack! And just like that, it's 6-0, after two and a half... Eck singles, but Erstad GIDPs. Vlad walks... pow! Zam! Anderson smokes one to right center, and it's 8-0! Pinero -- 19.64 ERA? Ow...

Guillen -- get that hand checked, dude. .125? You sure you don't need some time off or something?

Wash looks sharp -- not striking out a lot of guys but getting a bunch of outs. He's only faced 10 batters by the fourth. But -- uh oh. Wash gives up a double to Winn and then he steals third. Boone doubles him home. Wash starting to shake things up a bit. Man, could we use a double play ball... instead he gets a single from Ibanez and a double from Aurilia ... and a bloop RBI single from Wilson. This game erases any doubts about Jarrod's symbiotic relationship with Darin Erstad's legs, iffy though they may be. Now it's Washburn's turn for an embarrassing ERA, 9.82. Oops.

And now Osama Ben Weber comes in to the game, and promptly sets off a bomb that bounces out of the park. You're supposed to give up groundballs, dude, not ground rule doubles. Man, the pitching smelleth; and he walks Dave Hansen. Dude, what are you, some kinda enemy combatant?

Ugh. Ichiro hits one to second but legs it out to prevent a double play. 9-6 -- and before I can finish the sentence, Randy Winn whacks one past Glaus and it's 9-7. And uncharacteristically, Weber strikes out Boone.

High concept: the Cardinals of the AL West?

Stick A Fork In Hundley

Today on MLB.com, Jim Tracy admits Todd Hundley's career is over, despite the $6.5M he's owed this year. He "remains in contact with the [Dodgers] medical staff". Well, that's one albatross gone... next year.

Being Aaron Looper

Poor Aaron Looper. DePodesta thought so little of him that he's being assigned to AAA Las Vegas without so much as a fare-thee-well. The Dodgers have to trade him within ten days or else he has to clear waivers. You'd think if he were tradebait, DePo would've kept him on the 40-man roster. Could Seattle claim him back? Now that would be funny... But seriously, why pick up a guy you'll just let hit the waiver wire within the week? Was it just to strip Seattle of a pitching option, as I suggested earlier? Or is he the PTBNL in the Bradley trade?

Barry Zito's "Ranger-Killer" Rep In Danger

Barry Zito lost to the Rangers yesterday, 2-1, for the first time in his career. He's now 17-1 against the club, though the article doesn't speculate whether this heartbreaking disappointment will prompt him to retire.

G. Pascal Zachary in today's issue of Wired News has a rational take on steroid use: regulation rather than prohibition. The fact of the matter is that banning will just cause more and nastier side effects to the game, like any other prohibition:

Imagine a world where performance enhancement was open and regulated. Instead of forcing athletes to sneak through back alleys to stay competitive, sports authorities should admit that drugs are essential - then help athletes cope with the side effects. Once legalized, drug use would still have limits, but they would be established by physicians and athletes - based on their ability to handle performance enhancers. Bad outcomes would be far less frequent if players were not forced to rely on quacks (such as the former Tower of Power bassist at the center of the baseball designer steroid scandal). Innovation in performance enhancers would accelerate in the light of day. There might even be spinoff applications that would benefit you and me.

Zachary admits it's not a perfect scheme, but it's better than the ban-'em-all-let-God-sort-'em-out attitude pervasive in the game today. George Will, sycophant, in one breath gives a big wet kiss to Commissioner Seligula (" Selig has been -- baseball is a game of inches, but this is not a close call -- the greatest commissioner") and then condones unconstitutional searches as a justification for steroid testing!

The parenthesis opened in the 1990s. It must be closed to remove the cloud of suspicion that hovers over all players. Americans standing in stockings while their shoes and luggage are X-rayed at airports doubt that privacy considerations should prevent random, year-round testing, backed by serious sanctions, for illegal drugs that traduce baseball's integrity.

Oh, got it. Look, George, why don't you just make it official by changing parties to one more naturally aligned to your thinking. Or, what part of

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

did you not understand?

If newly discovered slugger José Molina, and renewed third baseman Troy Glaus look to crush every ball within a couple feet of the plate, the surprises were Vlad "only" going 1-4 with a walk, and Erstad 1-5. (Salmon went 0-5, but has historically not hit Moyer well, with a .215 career average.) While a lot has been written about Ersty's lack of offense (his principle value is his CF glove), what bugs me is Stoneman's insistance on writing contracts like Erstad's in the first place. Sure, he had a great 2000, but with more bad offensive seasons than good, the former first-round, first-overall draft pick now looks to be pretty close to an average player -- that is, an expensive bust anywhere but centerfield. I'll put it this way: I haven't seen Stoneman make the kinds of moves that Paul DePodesta has made lately, ones where you say to yourself, yeah, we just rooked those guys. Stoneman's likely to hand out contracts for sentimental reasons, which isn't a good idea if your object is to win. The problem I've had with McCourt is that he acquired the team as a kind of Christmas present from Bud Selig, who wants to see a fiscally hamstrung Dodgers, and from News Corp, who wanted to keep the Fox Sports West networks. While it's better to be smart and rich, DePodesta is showing himself to be at least smart.

In the end, the ability to recognize and properly reward talent will be far more important than the current roster. My basis for judging DePodesta is based on a small sample size, to be sure, but one that gives me some comfort level. Stoneman's lack of imagination gives me pause. Shouldn't he have had some kind of "in" with Javier Vazquez, given that they both worked for the same organization once upon a time? Sure, Vlad was a nice pick up, but the way the story's told, his acquisition was an accident. If there's any contract the Angels may live to regret, it just might be the four-year extension of Stoneman's contract as GM.

Update: thanks to those writing to remind me that Erstad's contract was negotiated mid-year rather than after the Series.

Milton Bradley has suffered at the hands of we Dodger bloggers. While I doubt he and his badass mamma read anything we scribble here, the theorizing -- well, not really, given the idiotic manner he acquitted himself in spring training -- the theorizing is that Bradley is a Bad Influence on the club and will equal poor performance. Terry mentions this in his three-pronged attack on the trade:

Bradley is either a jerk who dogs his way through practice but delivers -- and hot-dogs -- when it counts, or he's a misunderstood, emotive youngster who's just being exuberant. Yes, the trade gives him the chance to begin anew, but a similar opportunity was afforded to Gary Sheffield, too. ... Bradley gets a fresh start, but players -- perhaps especially young ones -- with attitudes often fail to make the most of those. Have we become so desperate for offense that we've forgotten how miserable a malcontent can make things for all parties? I haven't.

Well, that's fair enough, and I'll even go so far as to agree that Sheffield was borderline cuckoo when he was with the Dodgers. Even years after his Dodger adventure, nothing has changed for the Shef; Steinbrenner got a taste of his psychosis sandwich when Sheffield rejected an unbelievably lavish offer of $11M/year for three years, this for the services of an aging, yet still very capable player. Given the circumstances, it's hard to see how Sheffield could have avoided being traded, especially since he asked for it after the Kevin Brown contract fiasco.

So with all that said -- how can there possibly be a case for actually wanting the services of Milton Bradley?

Essentially, it comes down to this:

• The Dodgers have no other options. If it weren't for Bradley, they wouldn't have anybody, and the team would be in much worse shape than it already is.
• Winning causes chemistry, not the other way around.

The second point is the strongest, and one made today by M's blog Mariners Wheelhouse:

During the late 1980's I was part of the senior management of a company that went from 5 employees to over 100 employees in four years. The excitement around the office was palpable. People came to the office early and stayed late. They went out for beers after work together. They hiked together, skied together, hung drywall together, and generally shared life together. The company softball team was the most enjoyable softball team I ever played on. Everyone was challenged, excited, and enthralled. Opportunities were there for the taking; if someone was ready for more responsibility, they could have it. Our growth was limited only by our ability to find and deploy skilled staff. We were making and distributing a ton of money. We were doing great work, having a great time, and life was good.

It was like being on my championship IM flag football team again, but the feeling went almost non-stop for three years. I tried to tell the people who worked for me to enjoy the times, because they would not always be so good. The usual response was, "Yeah, yeah."

By the fifth year our growth rate flattened. A couple of projects had some problems. We were now market limited – now promotions and raises were not automatic even though a person might have proved themselves ready for more responsibilities.

Anyone care to guess what happened to our team chemistry?

Well, naturally we can fill in the next paragraph for ourselves; it's obvious. The point isn't so much that we should excuse Bradley as chemistry is irrelevant. Winning will fix chemistry problems -- in the main. Some guys are such insufferable jerks that no amount of success is worth the headaches of working with them. Whether Bradley is one of them -- and there's admittedly signs he might be -- is debateable, but the team has no room to err on the side of caution. Must. Have. Bat.

No matter what team you root for, you need to read these fantasy baseball projections from McSweeney's. (Thanks to CotL for this link.) For the teams this high quality blog covers:

Anaheim Angels
Vladimir Guerrero, the biggest free agent signing for the Angels, maims four middle relievers in April while trying to throw out runners at home.

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers pitching staff posts a record 1.50 ERA for the season, but finish below .500 after scoring .25 runs a game. Adrian Beltre hits .250, with ten HRs and fifty RBIs. Scouts say, "He is finally showing patience at the plate and should be a good one next year."

Eric Gagne's ERA reaches negative numbers.

The entry for Griffey, Jr. is not to be missed.

Hi, Jamie! God, I feel giddy... it's like watching the 2002 playoffs again, or an episode of the Adam West "Batman" show. Pow! Bam! Sock! Dang, I wish I weren't at work...

Scot ... Scot... strike zone... come on, you can find ... ugh! Walking a run in? Gregg... Jesus Louises, could you have a little control, Kevin? What is it about pitchers named Kevin on the Angels? Thank God for Frankie. At least he earns his gaudy nickname today.

I have wondered how Frank McCourt's disconnect between reality and the players' own grim survey of their situation would play upon the team. For some time now, Frank's incompetence, lack of fiscal wherewithal and insane refusal to acknowledge skeptics has infuriated and puzzled me; indeed, after impelling me to write the McCourt sale timeline, it was the principle reason I started this blog.

And then came the wave of front office defections or firings.

First, it was Bob Graziano, whose departure was expected, but certainly the manner of his departure was not . At the same time, Kris Rone resigned. At the time, she was the fourth-highest-ranking woman in baseball at the time, setting a pattern for the exits that would follow for David Walkley, HR director, and, perhaps the most important loss, Derrick Hall, Director of Communications. In fairness, Graziano was expected to leave once the new management came in, but what's telling is that the club proceeded without a president afterwards. Baseball is full of hangers-on; they could surely acquire the services of one of their legions. While the job may not be in reality quite the neutered corner office gig I envision it, and I'm glad they didn't give any significant responsibilities to Lurie-era Giants exec Corey Busch, I have to believe that, amongst the rubble of ex-players and ex-con men, somebody suitable could be found for the job. Similarly, Hall's exit has filled me with gratitude. In conjunction with a delightful Times story, he has managed to largely silence the McCourts, whose public proclamations deaden the very air with stunned disbelief.

And that doesn't even begin to describe the ugly, inhumane way Dan Evans was fired in preference for untested whiz kid Paul DePodesta. Evans was "given a chance" to keep his job; this, in McCourt speak, apparently means your neck is already in the noose, as in the old Soviet courts. Players told they'll have a chance need to worry.

So if I was upset, imagine the rancor in the clubhouse. It was obvious from the beginning that Frank's monomania prevented him from comprehending the damage he was doing to the team, and to morale of the players. They must endure, first hand, Jamie's idiotic speeches about being in the playoffs every year and -- for God's sake! -- bashing the Dodger Dream Foundation for not doing enough. They must listen to Frank ignore his legitimate critics. They must hear the flying rumors of impending fiscal doom that would prevent the team from picking up a quality free agent bat. They started spring training with no substantial offensive help in the infield, where it is most needed, an aging rotation minus Kevin Brown, a Shawn Green minus pop, and a bullpen minus Paul Quantrill.

All this, until last weekend, in the absence of real offensive help.

Frank needs to face his critics squarely. He won't do it; he knows he's been handed a team with the usual safeties -- the debt service rule requirement -- turned off. So now the lies, the crooked dealing, the dysfunctional optimism, all of it comes back now, and with a vengeance.

Play ball, suckers.

And a big 6-4-2 thank you to Cub Reporter, who gave me a sidebar link recently. You like me, you really really like me...

Fear strikes the hearts of Dodger fans everywhere, as the Padres lead the division! But the Dodgers actually outhit the Pads, 15-12, in an otherwise lopsided 8-2 loss. Nomo's unbelievably bad pitching, capped off with a grand slam, only serves to make me think I was all too right about this team's pitching, and Nomo's in particular.

Seriously, if it takes a replay of 1992 to oust Frank McCourt from owning this team, I'm all for it.

U.S.S. Mariner has published worthwhile codas to their earlier comments on the Bradley and Cabrera trades. Note to self: Must. Learn. To. Think. Deeper.

For reasons inexplicable to me, long-time Seattle super-sub Mark McLemore got signed by the A's. McLemore, also a former Angel, has been around 18 years, which should tell you something about the guy; the fact that he's starting the year on the DL is probably not a good thing, as is the fact that BP projects his VORP to be 5.9. Assuming -- and that's a big one -- that McLemore can come back from his arthroscopic knee surgery in the offseason, he's projected to be more useful than Jolbert Cabrera. But the difference may be in the urgency of the help needed. With Spiezio out, the M's needed immediate help at multiple infield positions. Still, I can't help but wonder: not even the mighty Wizard of A's gets 'em all right.

Maybe this is what the M's bloggers were complaining about: McLemore is the kind of guy Bavasi should have been pursuing rather than unload pitching prospects -- especially two of them -- for a weak-hitting infielder.

In other news, the A's still haven't given up on Mark Ellis returning, and are hedging their bets, at least in public. Also, Rich Harden, their supposed fifth starter, has been sent down to AAA; this is only temporary, and Harden is expected to return by April 15th.

Overheard: Green back to 1B, with an OF of Roberts (RF), Bradley (CF), and Encarnacion (LF). If true, Greenie may be in for some interesting times.

Update: Not a rumor anymore, though Tracy needs to recalibrate his definition of what an "impact player" is. Bradley can be good... when he decides he needs to be.

Update: Mariners Wheelhouse is back after an extended hiatus. Stephen was kind enough to drop me a note that he has returned, and with a very nice analysis of the Cabrera trade, similar to that made by U.S.S. Mariner. It's all good. Welcome back, Stephen!

The Dodgers lost to the Angels today, for the third straight game, this time 13-6, making a sweep of the exhibition Freeway Series. For all that the Dodgers were made up as an all-pitch, no-hit gang last year, the team got their licks in today, but couldn't string enough together to win. And if the Angels pitching was less-than-stellar -- Ramon Ortiz giving up three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings -- the Dodgers pitching looked simply awful. The Angels failed to score in only two frames, but the embarrassing part was Ishii getting lit up by the Angels' second string team. This makes their spring record, according to the Angels' announcers, 12-22, the worst since moving to Los Angeles.

So: will Milton Bradley, with his projected 21.2 VORP help the team that much? I doubt it. PECOTA, whose numbers I distrust but still use in the absence of anything better, has as high a collapse rate as it does an improve rate, a scary prospect for a guy who's famous for fighting with managers and dogging out injuries. It's going to be a long year.

Maybe not in time to hit in today's Freeway Series, but Milton Bradley is a Dodger, says ESPN. DePodesta actually comes through, for a prospect and a PTBNL. If it turns out that DePo unloaded the guys the Dodgers just picked up from the M's, the Mariners bloggers will go nuts.

And speaking of which, The Safe throws some cold water on my characterization of the recent trade with the M's as cleaning up for the Dodgers.

Update: Now on MLB.com, for Franklin Gutierrez and a PTBNL. Gutierrez was the Dodgers' third best prospect according to Baseball America:

Strengths: Gutierrez’ raw power became above-average game power last year. He has a balanced approach with outstanding bat speed and natural lift to his swing. He’s wiry strong and athletic, with the speed to run down balls in center field. He has plus arm strength and enough bat to handle a move to right if needed.

Weaknesses: His swing gets long, creating holes, especially up and in. Improving his pitch recognition would help Gutierrez make better contact. Like many young hitters, he’s vulnerable to good breaking stuff and needs to learn to take pitches the other way.

Sounds like an even trade, depending on the PTNBL. DePo did a good job on this one considering the shortness of time to get an offer together.

Frank... Frank -- you're supposed to be taking notes when Arte's talking...

OF Milton Bradley was reassigned to Cleveland's AAA affiliate, Buffalo, to prevent wasting a space in the 25-man roster.

The Times reported earlier today that the Dodgers are pursuing a trade for Bradley, and the parts acquired for Romano and Cabrera may be bait.

Update: U.S.S. Mariner links to this ESPN article on Bradley, "the angriest player in baseball". Sheesh. But, reading further on that fine blog, they're interested in Bradley too, and --

So, what do the Indians need?

1. A frontline, major league ready starter.

2. Offensive middle infielders.

3. Catching depth.

There's talk on the Dodger boards that David Ross might be out of tonight's game for a reason. I don't doubt that the M's have more arms to deal, but it's not insignificant that the Dodgers elected to use a moment of weakness to strip them of a pair of interesting options at a crucial moment.

Update: or not. Ross got some swings in; it made no sense to me that they'd lose the only operable backup catcher they had with Hundley starting the year on the DL.

The Mayor of Dodger Stadium announced that Cabrera and Romano were traded, for minor leaguers:

• Jason Romano was sent to Tampa Bay in exchange for SS Antonio Perez. Perez is the ninth best prospect in the Devil Rays system. About him, Baseball America says

  Strengths: Perez is a capable defensive shortstop who could be a star at second base. He has soft hands, a strong arm and good instincts. He has excellent range for the position. While his power is good for a middle infielder, he’s best slapping the ball into the gaps and hitting for average. He has above-average speed.

  Weaknesses: Perez doesn’t get good jumps or show good instincts on the bases, which limits his running and basestealing ability. He’ll have to make more contact to hit effectively in the majors.

  So this trade is probably all about Alex Cora. I would say we came out on top of this deal.
• Jolbert Cabrera was sent to the Mariners for RHP Aaron Looper and LHP Ryan Ketchner. Of these two, the Mayor says

  Looper, 27, was 1-0, 1.93 in six spring games in 2004. He made his ML debut in 2003 with the Mariners, appearing in six games (0-0, 5.14). He was 5-2, 3.11 in 46 relief appearances with AAA Tacoma last season. Aaron is the son of Mariners Vice President of Player Development and Scouting Benny Looper and the cousin of Mets pitcher Braden Looper.

  Ketchner, 21, was 14-7, 3.45 in 31 games, 22 starts, with high-A Inland Empire in the Cal League last season. He was a Cal League All-Star and was named Inland Empire's Most Valuable Pitcher by the Mariners organization at the end of the season.

  About Looper, BP says:

  Made the big club, and not just as a favor to his dad. Looper doesn't have tremendous stuff, but he's made some sort of progress every year, and the whole package isnow a pretty reasonable pitcher. He'll be fighting for a job in the spring, and probably for several springs after that.

  Hmm, sounds like this guy could be tradebait for Cleveland. Maybe both.

  Baseball Prospectus says this about Ketchner:

  At any level, anyone who strikes out more than a guy per inning and posts a K:BB ratio of around 5:1 deserves some notice. People will latch onto the easy human interest story here (Ketchner was born deaf), but the real story is that this guy is dusting people fairly convincingly with an 87-mph fastball. His pitching pattern is reminiscent of Barry Zito's; hitters get used to looking for a featured pitch aside from the fastball (in Zito's case the curve, in Ketchner's, the changeup), then are way behind a fastball they'd normally have a good swing at. He'll face the Double-A testing grounds next year.

  Well, that would be this year. Man, it sounds like we really cleaned up on the M's on this trade.

  Update: Looks like 3B Scott Spiezio will start the year on the DL with back problems, and the M's need a versatile bench player to fill that need. Jolby's their man, for sure.

It's possible this might be a precursor to a Bradley trade, or just moving moveable pieces in recognition that this is, indeed, a rebuilding year.

If Oakland is Moneyball's poster child, Toronto is its question mark. One of my first posts here was to question the alleged brilliance that Beane acquired as a result of that book; let's look at Toronto in the same light:

Tenure year	Ricciardi	Toronto W-L	Beane	Oakland W-L
1	2002	78-84	1997	65-97
2	2003	86-76	1998	74-88
3	2004	?	1999	87-75

What made the A's so dangerous in 2000 was they finally brought up all of their trio of Hudson, Mulder, and Zito. In the absence of an ungodly rich Steinbrenner in the division, the A's haven't really had to compete with bottomless pockets -- until at least this year. Arte is probably as close as you'll see to that outside the AL East. But first, he's got to prove himself to a mildly skeptical Southern California audience that the Dodgers are in the midst of a long-term decline, and that dominance is shifting to the Angels, before his business plan can let him spend like a Steinbrenner and get away with it on an ongoing basis. And while the Jays have a number of young power arms in their minor leagues now, only two of them -- Francisco Rosario and Dustin McGowan -- made Baseball America's 2004 top 100 prospect list.

Those arms will no doubt prove vital to the Jays' success, just as the A's cheap, young, and effective starting rotation has proven vital for the A's. For all that Billy Beane has been quoted about baseball players being fungible, you will notice that none of Zito, Mulder, or Hudson have been traded. Given their similarities in fiscal circumstance, Toronto will have to count on those young arms to carry them through the late 2000's, when Steinbrenner's wallet may have painted him into a corner with multimillion dollar contracts paid out to players who may no longer be effective, and likewise for John Henry with the Sox. The Jays' principle competition then might be the Orioles, who are in a precarious position -- the team is wagering heavily on its young arms in the minors, too, but also on expensive free agents like Miguel Tejada. At the same time, current owner Peter Angelos has put the team on the block. As if that weren't enough, there's talk the Expos might move in to Washington, diluting the O's market share. There's enough going right in the Jays that they could dominate by the end of the decade. But it's still too early to know whether their bets will pay off, and still too early to tell whether Sabermetrics (tm) brand baseball is really the product of superior scouting. Repeatability is the hallmark of science; Toronto will prove whether the A's methods are truly reproduceable, or just so much hype.

Time to prove those Baseball Prospectus guys wrong, Arte. Time to show them you didn't squander your money on second-rate talent, time to show them that moving Ersty to 1B wasn't a mistake (it probably was, but whatever). And time to see whether your background in marketing, your enthusiasm for the game, and most importantly, your wherewithal can overcome the Angels' historic status as second-class citizens in their own market. The moment is now.

"The Dodgers have always had a strong following," Kuhl says. "I never worry about the Dodgers. I'd rather have them worry about me."

... But even in the glow of 2002 and the afterglow of 2003, the Angels sold fewer tickets than the Dodgers and attracted fewer viewers on Fox Sports Net. The cable network will pay the Dodgers four times what they pay the Angels for broadcast rights this year, perhaps the most striking example of revenue disparity. Moreno intends to close that gap by assembling a must-see team and selling it to fans and broadcast partners and corporate sponsors across Southern California.

"He's telling his prospective clients that he sees it as a major market and they ought to jump on the bandwagon," says Richard Brown, Angel president from 1990-96. "But Arte Moreno ordaining it as a major market does not make it so. The team may be a very good team, but the team doesn't change the market."

Autry, who knew broadcasting but not, in the end, baseball, certainly didn't make it happen. He bought too many washed-up stars in the 70's and 80's. The team almost, but not quite, made it to the World Series, only to be denied in heartbreaking ways.

Fernandomania did not spread across Southern California solely because the Dodgers employed an adorably pudgy Mexican pitcher who rolled his eyes toward the sky before letting go of the ball. Fernando Valenzuela won and won and won some more, the same thing Moreno plans to do.

"For me to specifically target one nationality or one ethnic group would be against the way I was brought up and the way I believe," he says. "Everybody is welcome in our park."

Which is why I think the accusations that Arte's alleged pursuit of only Hispanic players as a way of marketing the team to Hispanic Orange County is idle speculation. The real issue may be a lack of creativity in the front office. Bill Stoneman got the best free agent pitcher available without actually getting the best pitcher moved in the offseason, Javier Vazquez, then of the Expos and now of the Yankees. Vazquez is certainly Hispanic; if the team were after guys with certain surnames, why not bag him? If he could be had for injury magnet Nick Johnson and a couple of what the Yanks are pleased to call "prospects" these days, Stoneman's dealmaking skills certainly need to be called into question.

If the Angels don't win, neither will Moreno. If they don't win, Los Angeles won't care—not the fans, not the advertisers, not the broadcasters. If they don't win, he can't pay major-market salaries and turn a profit.

An MBA is not required to assess the execution of Moreno's business plan, just a glance at the standings in the sports section. Carpino is not shy about sharing the 10-year strategy.

"To be in the playoffs," he says, "and be world champions. Multiple times.

"If we do that, everything will generate positively, from the TV and demand on down. If we're strong on the field for the next 10 years, we'll be strong everywhere else."

Easier said than done, of course. But on this particular early spring day, there are reasons to be optimistic, especially when the parking lot maven on the other side of town raises parking prices before the team even plays game one. And with Vlad around, who knows what this team can do to Oakland's vaunted pitching staff.

Here's to the finding out.

Los Angeles magazine has a short section on Dodger bloggers in the April 2004 issue, and somehow I ended up on the list, as well as most of the blogs over on the right hand margin, and Dodgerkid as well.

Some days ago, we noticed a bird in the hanging fern at the entrance to our house. Every time we came in, it would flit off. One day, I stopped by and looked down.. and there was a nest!

It's a little grayish-brown bird, maybe a house finch or a small mourning dove. Closer to:

Last year, we had house finches nesting in our patio. It was really cool to see the little birds come up and beg for food when the parents flew in! Maybe I should put up a screen so the mama bird isn't so worried about us being nearby when we come and go from the house. Spring has all kinds of surprises!

Ken Rosenthal suggests the Dodgers as a possible destination for clubhouse cancer Milton Bradley. He is cheap -- $1.73M -- making him a poor man's version of Gary Sheffield. DePo, don't look this gift horse in the mouth too hard, but don't give up any of the anointed ones...

A-Rod Wants Out Of NY

In a Birds In The Belfry exclusive interview, A-Rod has surrendered to what many analysts considered an inevitable change of heart about his signing with the New York Yankees after their recent 8-3 loss to Tampa Bay. "Did you notice that we don't have [names on the back of our uniforms] in New York? I had never noticed that before", a visibly frustrated and sleep-deprived Rodriguez opined.

Pappas: Yanks Need A New Stadium

Business of Baseball author Doug Pappas makes a case for Yankee Stadium 3, one we've heard with increasing frequency from Steinbrenner, whose public carping about the Yankees' lack of competitiveness has made him almost as much a nuisance as Bud Selig. Pappas points to Yankee Stadium 2's lack of architectural integrity, grossly inadequate parking (depriving the team of yet another revenue source), poor location, and weak fan loyalty as arguments for abandoning the old stadium. Pappas concludes: "If New York taxpayers can offer $600 million to construct a platform so the NFL Jets can build a stadium atop rail yards, surely they can offer as much to ensure that the Yankees can remain competitive for years to come." The additional revenue will be indeed welcome, after their expensive 2003 additions, whose contracts won't expire until well into the 2010's.

Jays Release Entire Scouting Staff

Dayn Perry today reports on the release of Toronto's entire scouting staff. As I wrote earlier, Oakland GM Billy Beane introduced scoutless recruiting to the A's some time ago, and we're starting to see the fantastic results thereof already. Sabermetric baseball fans everywhere will cheer on the Jays as Ricciardi introduces another, still bolder wrinkle: having the players write their own scouting reports. Here's a sample, written by one Stephen Drew:

Comments: Handsome, powerful and destined for greatness. Don't be the fool that passes on this incredible talent. It wouldn't surprise me if your ass got fired for passing on Stephen Drew. Don't make a fool of yourself by offering him less than $15 million and a major league contract. Rumor has it that scouting directors who pass on Drew, who's a bad ass, will be declared illegal combatants and transported immediately to Gitmo. If you don't believe me, just ask me. Millions, I said.

While old-school clubs like the Mariners and Angels continue to send old guys in used Toyotas all over the country to get subjective opinions of prep and college pitchers, the Jays look to save a bundle annually with this approach. I've long suggested scouts are tremendously overrated, and expect to see this cutting-edge stuff applied in Dodgerland any moment. Fire 'em all, Paul!

The Indians' Milton Bradley is on his way out after being told he's 72 hours away from a trade. It almost seems inevitable that Los Angeles is a strong possibility as a destination. His 2003 line of .321/.421/.501 was pretty good, accomplished in a pitchers' park comparable to Dodger Stadium, to boot.

If you read one political story because of this blog, you must read this Wired story about how e-voting threatens democracy. We had e-voting machines in my Orange County precinct for the last election, and they managed to record more votes than voters. If ever there were a systematic way to steal elections, this is it. Voting is important, but what's more important is the power to count the votes.

Tommy John's 30th

Today is the 30th anniversary of Frank Jobe rehabilitating then-Dodger pitcher Tommy John's ulnar collateral ligament. Back in 1974, John blew out his elbow, and he asked Jobe to "make up something":

Jobe extracted a tendon from John's right arm and used it to replace the torn ligament on his left, pitching arm, threading the healthy tendon through holes drilled into the bone above and below the elbow. At the time, no one was certain of the outcome, but John went on to win 170 additional games; the procedure thereafter became known as 'Tommy John surgery.' Without Jobe's help, John would never have pitched another baseball.

...Dr. John Bergfeld, executive director of Cleveland Clinic Sports Health, said, "Slight modifications have been made, but the principle of the surgery is the same: to repair a ligament that is frayed and torn with an accessory tendon from the arm."

The accessory tendon does not have a useful function otherwise and is usually taken from the hand, wrist or forearm. According to Bergfeld, 12 percent to 13 percent of patients do not have such a tendon in either arm, in which case one is taken from the leg or toe.

Jobe was today honored in a pregame ceremony, but perhaps a fairer reward would be to have Darren Dreifort pay him a commission so long as he's on the DL.

Daal "D" For "Disabled"

In fortuitous (for the Dodgers) news, former Dodger Omar Daal is -- you guessed it -- on the DL for at least three months thanks to shoulder and elbow problems. Unloading Daal was one of Evans' more astute moves; he's only pitched a total of 19 games for the O's since signing his two-year contract.

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And speaking of the DL and ex-Dodgers, Brian Jordan's surgically reconstructed knee has given out again, and he'll probably start the season on the DL. Note to Brian: if you're going to grouse that the Dodgers pushed you to return too early from the DL, now's the time to prove you can spend bench time with the best of 'em.

Trammelled Underfoot

After the arrival of the latest DePoDodgers, Bubba Trammell got the boot, leading to some wondering whether the power to pick favorites has moved up the food chain from Tracy to DePodesta.

Giant Injuries

Ex-Dodgers aren't the only ones with spring injuries, of course, and in our principle rival's ballpark, the bad news accumulates. Ray Ratto at the Chronicle opines that the Giants are ransacking the Brewers for pitching, picking up

• lefty starter Wayne Franklin
• righty long reliever Leo Estrella
• righty reliever (and ex-Cub) Dave Veres
• ex-Card and released ex-Brewer Mike Crudale for the team's Fresno AAA affiliate as insurance.

All this to make up for Jason Schmidt, Robb Nen, and Scott Eyre on the DL. On top of all that, Jerome Williams's line (0-5, 8.44 ERA, 21.3 IP), while atrocious, looks not unfamiliar to Dodger fans becoming accustomed to near-double-digit ERAs.

The Score Bard Is Will Carroll's Co-Pilot

Ken Arneson, aka The Score Bard, is now a co-author on Will Carroll's all-baseball.com blog. Will he continue with humbug.com? I surely hope so. I managed to miss his wonderful AL East and AL Central previews.

... but you won't find me completing that infamous Dorothy Parkerism on this blog. Suffice to say that I can't decipher the thinking behind the decision to start Aaron Sele in the pen after relatively successful spring, while batting practice pitcher Ramon Ortiz will start the year in the rotation. But Aaron's a good sport about it... right?

"I'll take my glove down to the pen and take it from there. I hope that I can contribute. I doubt it with the pen we have, but maybe I can carry extra food down there for the guys."

Oookayyy, we'll take that as a "no". Man, the Angels just know how to pick 'em. Let's hope Colón isn't one of the guys he's carrying food to.

Purgatory Online has a link to an A-Rod article he "co-wrote" (yeah, right!) in ESPN: the Magazine. Here we learn of his amazing conviction that Seattle's $150M offer didn't satisfy him. Well, we all know how Boras clients talk. And while the word "respect" didn't show up in the summary, his noteworthy respect -- or lack thereof -- for his Texas teammates did:

"I was overcome with a sense of depression," Rodriguez said. "There were days I didn't want to go to the park."

Rodriguez also said he told his wife that he failed to see any "light at the end of the tunnel" and that he would have never come to the Rangers if he had been told it would have been Rodriguez and "24 kids."

If that doesn't give the Rangers added incentive to give a hiding to Yankee pitchers, I don't know what would. Bonds detractors, note well: whatever else he's done in his career, Barry hasn't touched this particular dual peak of arrogance and pettiness. As Sean put it, "Just. Shut. Up."

On the Dodger fan forums, tommyradio announces Ross Porter will do a Dodger Mailbag segment prior to each game. Mail Ross at ross@ladodgers.com.

Yet another day where I have little to say and lots of little stories to share --

Owens Released

The Mariners released Eric Owens, leaving the sixth outfielder to find a bench job elsewhere.

Sturtze Released

And likewise for Tanyon Sturtze, released by the Dodgers. Evidently, he has a drug problem of some kind or other, or he wouldn't be saying things like

"I really was trying to make the Dodger team, and I thought I was throwing the ball really well with the Dodgers," said Sturtze, who was 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA and .367 opponents' batting average in four games (11 innings). "It just happened there were no spots."

In what world is a 9.00 ERA with a .367 average against good?

A's Look For SS Alternatives

Despite the ongoing denials about the ESPN report about Ellis' injury being season-ending, the A's are in the hunt for a spare shortstop, because their utility bench is better at playing second base. Despite what Tyler thinks about the A's depth in the middle infield, the fact that the name Benji Gil is being mentioned should tell you something. On the other hand, he also believes Junior Spivey or Ramon Martinez feature more prominently.

Times Story On Jered Weaver

Another Jered Weaver story, this one in the Times today. It sure sounds like the Padres will draft the guy. Meantime, the honors just keep racking up, with Jered garnering his fifth Louisville Slugger national player of the week award, on the heels of a record-tieing 16 K performance against Wichita State. What can I say but... wow!

Blog readers, take note: Weaver will take the mound this Friday against CSUF. Go Dirtbags!

YAAB

Yet Another Angels Blog, League of Angels. Whoosh, the number of Angels blogs now equals the number of Dodgers blogs -- nine in all.

Arte, I want to bear your love child. Okay, too strong, too strong, but when your new owner comes to town saying things like "losing makes me puke", you have to like it a lot better than Selig's moaning and kvetching about salaries, as well as excusifying for his team's consistent cellar-dwelling, not to mention McCourt's obviously unrealizeable pipe dreams he casts out in press conferences. Jim Souhan in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes (subscription required, or disable Javascript):

Moreno bought the most impressive free agent on the market -- the wondrous Vladimir Guerrero -- and two pitchers, Kelvim Escobar and Bartolo Colon, who addressed the Angels' biggest need. He added Jose Guillen just for laughs, bringing the Angels their biggest payroll ever.

Reason to raise prices, right?

Not in Arte's world. Moreno turned down millions in naming rights to re-name the former Edison Field "Angel Stadium."

He lowered the price of beer, souvenirs and children's tickets.

He spent many of his nights in Arizona dining at The Tee Pee, one of Phoenix's best hole-in-the-wall Mexican restaurants, where he's greeted by name.

He refused to complain about baseball's salary structure, competitive imbalance, the Alex Rodriguez trade, George Steinbrenner or Johnny Damon's hair.

And he actually said: "Losing makes me puke."

If you are an Angels fan -- no, if you are a baseball fan -- Moreno should be your hero.

Damn straight. They oughta know a few things in Minnesota about rotten ownership, so the other kind is blissfully rare. One of these days I'm gonna come across Arte at the stadium. This oughta be a fun year.

I forgot to check Mizuo's Japanese stats. Looks like his 2003 was spent recuperating from an injury (or else he was awfully ineffective) based on the few innings he pitched. His career 3.42 ERA looks like it's been based on his good years, but he's been all over the place. Given how few innings he's pitched, I would bet he's been used as a LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY, as coined by Baseball Prospectus), and his ERAs reflect sample size issues. His 2002 ERA of 1.80 is pretty decent, but his 3.99 the year before rings the klaxons. He might be usable, but more likely, I bet he'll leave the Angels wishing they still had Schoeneweis in their pen, especially given his age.