6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

Starting Rotation

If any one area of the team has been a complete and delightful surprise, it's the starting rotation. Nobody -- me least of all -- figured this team would have the third best ERA in the majors and second in the league as of today. Let's take a quick look at what's transpired so far:

							VORP
Player	W-L	ERA	IP	K/9	K/BB	WHIP	2005 Projected	2005 Actual
Bartolo Colon	11-4	117.2	3.06	6.65	3.78	1.11	27.5	28.5
Paul Byrd	8-5	109.0	3.55	4.87	4.21	1.11	14.6	21.7
Jarrod Washburn	5-3	106.0	3.06	4.67	1.77	1.43	18.1	28.6
John Lackey	6-2	98.1	3.84	8.69	2.44	1.43	16.4	19.9
Kelvim Escobar	2-2	3.54	40.2	10.18	2.71	1.25	30.8	9.0
Ervin Santana	2-3	6.06	40.2	7.99	1.93	1.65	7.7	-1.1

Notes:

• PECOTA-projected VORP uses 50th percentile figures.
• Kevin Gregg's two ineffective starts are not included here.
• Washburn's VORP isn't up-to-date after today's game because of BP's update cycle.

So, is this like finding a big-screen TV inside the box of Crackerjacks or what? Let's go over these guys one at a time.

The El Ladrón jokes have stopped as Bartolo Colon has acted like the ace he's paid to be. Most of this is due to a huge drop in his walk and home run rates over last year. While there's still reason to be skeptical about him -- he's had more years finishing with an ERA above 3.00 than below -- the fact that he's getting mentions as a Cy Young candidate is both surprising and pleasant.

Grade: A+

Did I hate the Angels' signing of Paul Byrd? You bet, but I changed my mind after thinking on it some; the guy's two years off a Tommy John surgery, and why shouldn't he come back stronger? And so he has. I keep adding a caveat to my notion that Byrd will end up as the team's number two, but if you look at ERA and innings pitched, Byrd has been the go-to guy after Colon. I think I owe him an apology.

Grade: A

Jarrod Washburn has meretriciously good numbers as the old school reckons them -- 5-3 with a 3.06 ERA, but he's also had 16 starts. His K/9 has taken a bit of a dive this year (4.69, lowest of any season with 100 or more innings pitched), but he's also pitching to contact a lot more. He's already broken a career record for eliciting double plays (16 this year so far). His 1.07 HR/9 rate is the third best of his career. That is to say, he's turning into the archetypal pitcher the Cards might hire. Whether the Angels want to pay $24M for three years of this kind of highly variable dominance remains to be seen.

Grade: B

When the year started, I was one step away from sending John Lackey to the glue factory, or selling used cars, whichever came first. Sure, he's a horse, but he's the kind of horse that doesn't quite pull the cart in the direction you need. His April numbers -- 5.61 ERA yet with a 3-2 record -- pointed to another rocky season for Lackey. And then, a miracle: starting on April 22, he had a string of quality starts that didn't end until May 31, when he faced the Chisox, for which he may be excused in surrendering four earned runs in seven innings. He then had quality starts in three of the next five outings, and has generally handled himself well on the mound. His home run rate, strikeout rate, and K/BB rate are all at career bests. Keep your fingers crossed, but he could turn out to be a right-handed Washburn.

Grade: B+

What is it Vin Scully says? If you want to make God smile, tell Him your plans? Something like that seems to have been in effect when I projected that Kelvim Escobar's PECOTA-projected DL time was excessive. My bad, as it looks now to be overly conservative. Kelvim's elbow surgery is probably going to cost him the whole season, so now we get to hope he'll be ready in September. He's not going to contribute anything of value this year, which is really too bad.

Grade: Incomplete

Ervin Santana is a kid, and so we'll give him a pass for now. Unfortunately, the Angels are now stuck with him in the rotation, and he's showing signs that his brilliant game against the Chisox was an exception rather than a rule.

Grade: C, but this is conditional on his being a rookie.

Bullpen

Frankie Rodriguez gets all the love -- and leads the pen in peripheral stats like K/9 -- but it's Scot Shields who leads the relief staff in VORP, 13.9 vs. second-best Frankie's 9.7. Shields is the seventh- and eighth-inning anchor who's filled in for Frankie ably during his absence earlier in the year. Every team seriously thinking about contending needs at least one guy like Shields around.

As for everybody else: Brendan Donnelly, Targate aside, actually hasn't been as awful as I thought, though his peripherals are taking a big dive; word is he's lost a couple-three miles per hour on his fastball, and so is having a harder time striking guys out. Esteban Yan was as horrible as I feared for a while, but has turned it around and somehow managed to get through June without giving up a run. Jake Woods and Joel Peralta, two rookie surprises coming out of spring training, have mostly been pleasant surprises, the kablooie game against Texas notwithstanding.

The bullpen continues to be one of the best in the AL, and if they temporarily place sixth by ERA, you get the impression we're too close on the heels of a meltdown for this to count for much. Grade: A-

Catcher

Here we have los dos Molinas and the underutilized Josh Paul, whose purpose on the team is a mystery; at one point, he went 32 games between at bats. Benjie Molina's catch-and-throw skills have declined (89 Rate2) to the point he's a liability behind the plate. He's now only throwing out 20% of baserunners. Contrast this with brother Jose, whose 142 Rate2 and .565 CS% put him on the Mt. Olympus of the team's backstop brothers. Paul is kept around, I guess, because the team doesn't carry a guy like a Shawn Wooten who can don the tools of ignorance in an emergency. Memo to Mike: don't they need another reserve infielder more than that?

With the emergence of Mike Napoli as another legit prospect behind Jeff Mathis on the depth chart, whether the Angels decide to buy more helpings of the noticeably declining B. Molina is anybody's guess. But I would suggest -- not.

Grade: B-

First Base

Darin Erstad's contract is partly a creature of misjudgment in the front office. The assumptions he would stay healthy and play centerfield were both clearly wrong, and the team is really still trying to find a quality centerfielder to replace him in that role. Despite that failure, Erstad plays first base the same way he played center: all-out, and excellently (113 Rate2). If he can't hit for power, at least he's hitting, and his June ended with a .397/.417/.813 line. He's not quite as hot now, but at least he has some value.

Grade: C+

Second Base

I need to say nice things about Adam Kennedy, whose defensive play just gets better and better; with his offensive explosion in June, the team has really found a groove where they can lay him back in the nine hole -- just like old times. Chone Figgins goes here, too, mainly because of all the games AK missed at the start of the season. Figgy's 109 Rate2 in center places him well ahead of league-average Steve Finley (100 Rate2); the team could do worse than to have Figgy in center with Benjie Molina at DH and Jose at the dish, as happened recently.

Grade: B+

Shortstop

Now that Eckstein's been elected as an All-Star starter for the NL, can I cry a little bit -- or take some solace in the egg on the Angels' face -- for having signed the collapsing Orlando Cabrera? His 110 Rate2 actually says his defense is pretty good, which contradicts the general decline in the previous two years. But his bat -- ugh. 5.7 VORP for the half season so far, and that's unlikely to budge much before the All-Star break. I hate that he's blocking guys like Brandon Wood and Brian Specht who have the power potential Cabrera does not. This one's not even close.

Grade: D

Third Base

26 and barely hitting, Dallas McPherson needs to step it up quick if he isn't going to get passed by one of those power-hitting shortstops in the Angels minors. His power's been there, if highly sporadic, but his 93 Rate2 says his glove is slightly below average (though from what I've seen, he's actually done very well this year). He strikes out a ton. I give D-Mac a C grade, but only because he's a rookie. Time's a-wastin', kid. We need that bat.

Left Field

Garret Anderson: smoke or mirrors? Whatever, he's doing far better than I thought possible this year, and has at times carried the team with his bat. Two more years of this after 2005; would it pain you to break out a smile once in a while, GA, when, for instance, you hit a career milestone of 1,000 RBIs?

Grade: B+

Center Field

No question now but that Steve Finley has been a disappointment. He's blaming his shoulder for his poor hitting so far, but could it actually be just simple and sudden age-related decline? That seems more likely. At least the contract is only for two years, and Stoneman has a better option in-house already.

Grade: C

Right Vield

Vladdie, Vlad, Vlad. Throw it here, throw it there, he'll hit it anywhere. The Angels' "Roberto Clemente with more power" and a strike zone from tongue to toenails, he's probably the best free agent signing of the last five years.

Grade: A+

Bench

I'm not going to talk about the taxi squad (Quinlan, Merloni, Pride), nor about regular-man-without-a-position Figgy, which leaves us with Jeff DaVanon, Juan Rivera, and Maicer Izturis. Jeffy hasn't been the guy we knew in 2003 and 2004, barely hitting until most recently, and even then, it was pretty apparent he was out of his depth at the DH role. DaVanon can still get walks when he needs them, but to stay in the big club, he needs to improve his hitting.

Juan Rivera and Maicer Izturis, the players returned from the Nationals for Jose Guillen, have both been pleasant surprises. Rivera hasn't hit especially well this year, but he's been warming up a bit lately (.263/.294/.438, about in line with his career numbers). Izturis particularly has come on strong, with a .343/.361/.514 line, which definitely qualifies in the "wake me when you re-enter earth's atmosphere" department.

Grade: B-

Summary

The Angels find themselves in first place by seven and a half games as of today (the Rangers lost to the M's in an improbable 2-1 victory for Seattle). This is principally by virtue of their strong pitching staff, which... well, I don't have to tell you that I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. I'm still amazed that the Angels rotation is one of the best in the majors, along with the bullpen. But -- that's not to say it's going to be easy the rest of the way. The A's have gone on a nice little streak in June, and Adrian Beltre starting to hit like he's paid to (.264/.304/.401, plus hitting two homers so far in July) could also energize the Mariners. And of course the Rangers aren't out of it by any stretch, not with all that firepower. I don't see any team being out of it enough to believe they can't, at least, have some effect on the division. Is it 1995? No. But are we at the finish line yet, either? No. Hang on: it's going to be a bumpy ride.