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Wednesday, September 21, 2005

Two Games

Ouch: Diamondbacks 3, Dodgers 2

"We definitely have to bear in mind the fact that if you can't be first, then you want to be second," Tracy said of the Dodgers, who are two games out of second.
Thus spake Jim Tracy, whose capacity for inanity has to be measured in giga-quantities these days, though the emissions, and the stakes, are far lower than those measured by, say, a Michael Brown or some of the other political hacks infesting the Bush Administration. With the Dodgers solidly in fourth place, even second -- four games back of the Giants -- is pretty optimistic with only 11 games left in the season.

With Tracy left thumb-fumbling in public to defend his obviously stupid lineups and in-game maneuvering, the only entertainment Dodger fans can seriously envision is the kind of cross-examination the Idiots suggest, pouring a typical Angry Fan into the press conference. Better, I would hope for something like this in reverse, where the creationists (Tracy) have to account for their bunting, keeping Choi out of the lineup, &c. without having to look at their notes first, or call their pastors. "God Said It, I Believe It, That Settles It" is fine for theological decisions, but not lineup construction.

Anyway. The big news from tonight's spectacular was Brad Penny's exit in the first, due to some kind of muscle stiffness. I have been willing to generally cut DePodesta a break on durability questions of his players, but I'm running out of patience here. Even last year, Will Carroll cited Penny as a "ticking time bomb" thanks to overuse and a raft of other problems. Milton Bradley's fragility was well-documented before he became a Dodger. So, for that matter, was J.D. Drew's, and while a freak accident felled him this time, late news in the Times that Drew's physical troubles weren't limited to his knees and the Dodgers knew this before they signed him makes the case damning for DePodesta. Jayson Werth had a similar history in the Toronto organization of downtime. Too many gambles that came up double zero. I'm coming around, bit by bit, to Matt's position on DePodesta's signings, and wonder just how many years it's going to take to clean out the stable floor that Chavez Ravine has become. The Crank reminds us that Branch Rickey once said, "Luck is the residue of design." That includes bad luck.

Recap

Two And A Half, Baby: Angels 6, Rangers 5

I really, really gave up on this one in the sixth, running off to the store to pick up some milk. Minus home run power, this team really didn't have any hope of winning, down two or more runs. But then, by the time I got out, it was the seventh and Jose Molina had just popped a game-winning pinch-hit single. It's a funny game, this baseball.

Another lousy game by Lackey against Texas, yet the relief corps unexpectedly pulled his chestnuts out of the fire, even minus Escobar. My favorite moment was the third strike by Shields against Kevin Mensch. Following a bouncer no less than two feet off the plate, Shields planted a perfect fastball low and over the outside corner for a called strike three. That's the kind of execution he's lacked for a while now, and it was great to see.

The other great moment was to see Frankie come back from what clearly should have been a called third strike on Rod Barajas. Molina knew it, Scioscia knew it, and the whole audience at the stadium knew it. And the very next pitch -- the first pitch in Gary Matthews, Jr.'s at bat -- also got squeezed. Frankie got screwed on that one, too, but ended up striking Matthews out anyway. Despite the runner advancing to third on a stolen base followed by a wild pitch, Frankie managed to get Teixeira to ground out to first to preserve the win. It was a save he really and truly earned.

Two and a half up on the A's, who fell to the Twins 10-4. It's still in my mind pretty meaningless, since the Angels still have to get past the A's in Oakland, and this time minus the help of Chris Speier.

Update: ... and, apparently, Oakland has no help from actual fans. 15,000 attendance in a pennant race? Unfreakingbelievable. I guess, as last year, there'll be a lot of red in those green seats...

Recap


Comments:
Are rate stats relevant if he only plays 70 games a year? It's one thing to say Drew has one chronic problem which you could legitimately say has been surgically fixed; it's another to sign a bucket of symptoms who's been productive, yes, but to do so in such a way as to cripple the team's future financial flexibility once the kid goes down -- and he will -- is just nuts.
 
I think the first pitch that Frankie threw to Matthews was a ball. It was outside.
 
Steve: did you not just notice that Drew went in for additional surgery? Hello? Again, I would agree with you if it were about just the hit-by-pitch. It's not anymore, and it never was, only we didn't know about it. More and more, DePodesta looks like a reactive GM.
 
Matt: the Cabrera signing is still lame. You can quote me.
 
How many games did Beltre lose in the prior three seasons due to injury? How many did Drew?
 
if these other injuries are such major problems, how on earth was he OPSing .920 in the 72 games before he got hit? it seems like they're pretty minor problems that don't affect his play. in fact, drew himself said they were just quality-of-life issues. hardly the basis for an indictment.
 
1) What else did you expect him to say?
2) If it was so minor, why did it require surgery?
 
That would be 2001, big guy, which was four years ago. But -- seriously -- why should I extend the Dodger front office any credibility on the heels of this revelation? Especially after this injury-plagued season? It just looks like their idea of "bargain" is to collect fragile players and pray.
 
Steve, that's where you're misreading me. I'm not trying to say that Drew's 2005 is a problem because of the broken wrist. I am saying that the Dodgers wrote a bad contract because of his injury history and signed him even knowing he had other problems.
 
Or 150,000 words.
 
i'm with steve on this one. i'm not a fan of drew's contract, but i think that using this year as a way to evaluate his past-and-future healthfulness is pretty useless. i'll agree with matt that there is some point at which a pattern isn't all coincidence. however, i disagree with his conclusions, because drew's injury this year doesn't fit the pattern. i came up with some other example in another post somewhere, but to make inferences on drew's health because he "has gone on to play 70 games" due to the HBP is like hearing about someone in the military who came home from battle only to get shot by an armed robber at the local convenience store and then saying "well, i'm not surprised he got shot. he is in the military after all, and they have a record of being wounded". context is important.
 

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