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Monday, August 06, 2007 |
The Wisdom Of Crowds: Angels Go Long On Boston
Much to my surprise the Angels are 10-point favorites over the Red Sox. It seemed to me that Weaver had been giving up a lot of longballs lately, but in fact he's about on pace for what he did last year. The big difference is that his WHIP is up by over .40 vs. last year. Schilling is coming back from a rehab assignment, and might be shaky; we'll see. David Ortiz isn't as scary this year as in seasons past, for the simple reason that his home run power has abated; he's only hit 19 so far this year, and while that would lead the Angels, it means that between him and Manny Ramirez (tied for the Red Sox home run lead with 19), Boston's offense isn't quite the threat it used to be. In fact, they're only 20 runs ahead of the Angels as a team right now, with 574 runs scored, good for third place. The Angels and Boston are virtually tied for rotation ERA, but the Red Sox have a huge edge in the bullpen with a 2.79 ERA that's two-thirds of a run better than second place Minnesota. (The Angels are a pretty miserable 10th by that standard, with a 4.14 ERA.) It should be an interesting series, anyway.
Labels: angels, previews, red sox
Comments:
I'm too lazy to look it up, but I wonder what the Angels' bullpen ERA would look like minus the "contributions," such as they were, from Hector Carrasco.
-110 means essentially an even bet, no team is favored. The 10 extra points is the juice you pay on any straight bet. If the Angels were really favored they would be -115 or -120 or more. You would have to wager $110 on the Angels to win $100. When a team is favored you have to put up more than $110 to win $100.
Angels' bullpen record: 304.2 IP, 140 ER
Hector Carrasco: 38.1 IP, 28 ER
Adjusting we get 266.1 IP and 112 ER, bringing the non-released part of the bullen up to a 3.78 ERA, good for seventh in the league, just behind the Yankees. It's not very surprising that Seattle leads the league in bullpen victories (23), but oddly, they're fifth in relief innings pitched (339 IP). Considering how iffy their rotation can be, I'm shocked it's not higher. On the other hand, Texas has an even worse rotation, which explains why they lead the league.
Hector Carrasco: 38.1 IP, 28 ER
Adjusting we get 266.1 IP and 112 ER, bringing the non-released part of the bullen up to a 3.78 ERA, good for seventh in the league, just behind the Yankees. It's not very surprising that Seattle leads the league in bullpen victories (23), but oddly, they're fifth in relief innings pitched (339 IP). Considering how iffy their rotation can be, I'm shocked it's not higher. On the other hand, Texas has an even worse rotation, which explains why they lead the league.
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