6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

If you haven't seen it already, Mat Gleason's 2011 Angels preview is up at Hardball Times, and a bitter, invective-laden rant it is. It's hard to argue against it; the Angels made a bad trade (Vernon Wells) to make up for not getting Carl Crawford, costing the Angels their best offensive weapon. The Kazmir deal is a catastrophe. Mike Scioscia's nearly unrestrained hand appears, at the moment, to be paying negative dividends. The most interesting part is his analysis of the timing of former scouting director Eddie Bane's firing:

The timing would indicate that there was no thought about it until someone had to go to save Reagins' CEO ego. If Reagins was upset with Bane’s 2010 draft, there was nothing prior to it to indicate that the Bane cowboy strategy of drafting high-risk, high-reward toolsy high schoolers early and often was going to change; Reagins could have made his move at any time prior. He waits, gets exactly what Bane has been cooking up for years and then fires him for that? Sure, probably, but we will never know because of the corporate culture of silence. You don’t have to look too far beyond the 2009 dismissal of LAA’s Latin American scouting director Clay Daniel for allegations that his scouts “down there” were skimming to find a reason to dismiss Bane. But again, if you don’t like his drafts and the skimming scandal happens on his watch, you replace Bane after 2009. To leave Bane in his position after such a scandal, as Reagins did, only to sacrifice the scouting director as some sort of scapegoat a year and 80 wins later, is only going to make the end of the Sigma Reagins front office frat-house culture of Anaheim all the more joyous for fans who deserve better.

Labels: angels, previews

At the Dallas Morning News Rangers blog. Sample:

Give us your perspective on the job Joe Torre has done and what makes him such a good manager.

Torre is a pretty even-keeled guy. He never gets too high or too low. Sometimes I don't understand his bullpen usage patterns, but I can't argue with the rotation he has settled on -- Ronald Belisario and Ramon Troncoso setting up Jonathan Broxton. I don't get too caught up in batting order, as long as the right eight guys are in the lineup, and Torre has played his best eight players all year.

Labels: dodgers, previews, rangers

In today's Future Shock column:

24. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Nobody really has any idea what the Angels are doing with their back-to-back picks. They love Mike Trout, and will pounce on him if available, but he's gone in this scenario. Chad James needs a home, and as a tall, projectable lefty who's been clocked at speeds as high as 95 mph this year, he could go much higher. On the other hand, he could have some signability issues this low.
Pick: Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS (OK)

25. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: If there's one other pattern for the Angels, it's their affinity for young local talent, and Jiovanni Mier is the only high school shortstop on the board who looks like he can stay at the position and is worthy of a late first-round selection. Reviews are mixed on him however, as some see him as a front-line defender with a 70 arm, while others see him as a 45-50 runner with a good first step and merely solid arm strength. This is not a projection made with much intelligence, other than the fact that it just kind of makes sense.
Pick: Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS (CA)

...

Massive Helium Watch: Reymond Fuentes, OF. The top talent in Puerto Rico has been in the US this week, and his private workouts have been nothing short of stunning. He's a 70-plus runner with impressive bat speed and some power, and the teams that like him think he could develop into a true power/speed threat in center field. He wasn't even in my Top 50 on Saturday, but in the last 24 hours he's been attached to teams as high as Detroit at #9 (where his workout for them bordered on legendary), to plenty of teams picking in the 20s. Most likely to take a shot at him? The Astros at 21, the Angels with one of their picks at 24 and 25, or the Rays at 30.

Update: Related stuff in his Monday Ten Pack:

Scott Boras, Scott Boras Corporation
I received a phone call over the weekend from a big-league executive, and we began a discussion about Saturday's Top 50 Draft Prospects article. "Did you notice what the first five have in common?" I was asked. I certainly didn't notice it while writing the piece, but another glance and I required just seconds to put it all together: all five are being advised by Boras. It might be his greatest draft ever, and the Boras Factor is wreaking havoc both for people working on mock drafts and for teams working on their war-room boards.

Labels: angels, draft, previews

The Chronicler, largely a non-entity at his blog these days, pens a BTF preview of the Angels' 2009. A good thing it was written after the season started, too:

As sports fans of a certain passion, we are used to deploying words like “disaster” and “catastrophe” where they don’t really belong. When invested in a game we react to each pitch and swing as though the Earth’s very rotation hangs in balance. Though the non-fan may not realize or appreciate our fervor, it serves a useful and very human purpose: we feel a part of something bigger, of a community of fans, players, and coaches. We identify with young men we’ve never met, men with whom we may share nothing in common but the color of a uniform, but men we’ve watched grow and mature and hone their skills to the point where they stand amongst the world’s elite. We cannot match that talent, but we can invest ourselves and our emotions, boisterous applause and righteous anger serving as our tools of participation. And in so participating we share the joys and disappointments of “our” players, and their failures affect us. And so we can freely use the words “disaster” and “catastrophe”, comfortably shielded in a world of metaphor.

On the evening of April 8 and morning of April 9, Angel fans were pushed from the disaster of metaphor into the catastrophe of the real.

...

The presence of Chone Figgins at third should also not block Brandon Wood, as Figgins is amongst the most defensively versatile players in the majors. He has also started the season drawing walks and stealing bases, though the rest of his offensive game is stagnant. Stagnant also describes to some extent Howie Kendrick’s start; Howie started the season hitting the ball on the button, but with few hits to show for it. He should, like many of his teammates, come around eventually. If he and they don’t, the team is in big trouble, as Torii Hunter will not be able to carry this team to the extent he has so far.

But with Vlad out and Lackey and Santana and Escobar still waiting to report for duty, “Looking Forward To” is really all the Angels have, barring the invention of a cosmic reset button. In many ways, it feels as though the season has yet to begin.

Labels: angels, previews

Last Waltz Before The Big Dance: Angels 5, Padres 4

Two shocking things: Kelvim Escobar pitching at all, and not only that, being damned effective. Sean O'Sullivan pitching three and a third innings of one-run ball despite seven hits.

Something else shocking: Robb Quinlan's halfway-up-the-left-field-foul-pole home run. He's had five in spring training, and there's no reason to think it will continue.

Isn't he a truant? Who the hell invited Eddie "Braces" McKiernan? And how did he end up with a 1.69 ERA in spring training? (And don't the umpires have to suppress an itch to card him every time he takes the mound?)

Winner, Big Gulp Award: Another horrifying inning by alleged closer Brian Fuentes. In theory, the big news with him is the steady improvement in his BB/9 numbers over the course of the last five seasons, but I have a feeling — and this mainly comes from watching him in opposition to the Dodgers — that he's actually been pretty good numerically should be enough to quell the roiling feelings of dread his 8.22 spring ERA inspires.

Thanks Kid, Now Here's Your Ticket To Salt Lake Awards: Bobby Wilson for his walkoff hit; Eddie McKiernan for his surprisingly good spring pitching; and most of all, Brandon Wood, who will get an extended look at the first injury, meaning most likely Erick Aybar or Chone Figgins.

MLB Recap • Box

Final Tuneup: Brewers 7, Dodgers 4

I would have thought the Dodgers would have been able to hold on to a 4-0 lead after five, but with the competition levels so wildly varied and random, it's hard to say. The Brewers pretty much knocked Ramon Troncoso and Eric Threets around in late innings, throwing the Dodgers for the loss.

Interesting odd telecast moment: At no time did the camera linger on Juan Pierre after he threw any caught ball back to the infield. I wonder if this isn't to spare him or Ned Colletti embarrassment.

Nice To See That's Working Award: Clayton Kershaw went three hitless innings.

MLB recap • Box

Baseball-Reference Switches To The New Format

An' it's all purdy.

Angels, Dodgers Roster Cuts

• Angels: catchers Bobby Wilson and Ryan Budde; infielders Brandon Wood, Sean Rodriguez, and Matt Brown; and OF Reggie Willits. (Isn't this Willits' last option year?)

  Jason Bulger made the 25-man as the last player.

• Dodgers: James McDonald, as expected, has been named the team's fifth starter. "The Dodgers sent shortstop Chin-lung Hu, pitcher Eric Stults, catcher A.J. Ellis and outfielders Jason Repko and Xavier Paul to Triple-A Albuquerque. And in a surprise move, they assigned non-roster invitee Jeff Weaver to Triple-A and retained left-hander Will Ohman, who was expected to receive work in the Minors before being called up." The Dodgers have yet to announce their 25-man roster.

LAT Angels, Dodgers Previews

Angels:

How about a hitter like Teixeira?

"That's my point," Hunter said. "Big bats aren't always the answer. If something is missing, please tell me, because we had the big bat last year, and we didn't win it all.

"The chicks-dig-the-long-ball era is over. You want athletes, guys who can play and stay healthy, and that's what we have."

...

Outstanding defense has been an Angels hallmark in recent years, but this team does not appear as good. Only three regulars, Hunter, shortstop Erick Aybar and Figgins, are potential game-changers on defense.

...

The last time the Angels had a subpar defensive team? In 2006, the only year they failed to make the playoffs since 2004.

Dodgers:

Ramirez will turn 37 next month but looks as if he's trying to do everything he can to sustain the excitement that reverberated through Chavez Ravine last year, showing no signs that his inability to get the four-year, $100-million contract he wanted had turned him back into the malcontent who forced the Boston Red Sox to trade him.

...

If Kuo or Wade goes down, the Dodgers could be in serious trouble. There isn't enough talent on this roster to replace them.

...

What they do have are four solid starters. But, as is the case with the bullpen, there are concerns about health and the lack of quality experienced arms behind them.

...

Ramirez alone can't make up for the expected shortcomings of the pitching staff, making it necessary that the group of Martin and Co. continue to make strides.

...

Look for the Dodgers to try to trade for a player in his walk year from a non-contender trying to unload a salary. Erik Bedard, a known Torre favorite, and Jarrod Washburn of the Seattle Mariners are possibilities. A more expensive option could be Roy Halladay of Toronto, who is under contract for 2010 for $15.75 million.

Labels: angels, dodgers, minors, previews, recaps, transactions

I say it's pretty good because of the author's insistence on calling Manny "Mandy" (c'mon, Jim, you're better than that); but repeated Barry Manilow references aside, his estimate of the team's win potential and weaknesses strikes me as right on: the bullpen is a mishmash, though I would also add that the rotation has zero room for error. More, I would add that if you're looking at a rotation of Kuroda, Wolf, Billingsley, Kershaw, and <fill in the blank>, something is terribly wrong already.

Labels: dodgers, previews

If for no other reason, you should read Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness's NLCS preview for bon mots like this one:

This is one of those cases where you have to take into consideration the source. Tim, no one disputes that Manny’s exit from Boston was ugly, although you still have to wonder how much of that was Manny’s doing and how much of it was Scott Boras taking time away from drinking the blood of children.

Labels: dodgers, previews, red sox

In today's Prospectus Preview:

Harden is coming off of his best start of the season, an eight-inning shutout of the Phillies, in which he struck out 11 while allowing just three baserunners. That performance earned a Game Score of 88, which was topped by Harden only once before in his (brief) career, in a complete-game shutout that he threw against the Rangers on July 14 of 2005, which was scored a 91. Santana also has thrown a gem that was rated an 88 this season—a complete-game, four-hit, nine-strikeout shutout of the Royals on May 5—and has thrown two more games so far in 2008 that clocked in at 80 as well. Always a threat to break down and miss significant time, Harden has been allowed to throw 100 pitches or more in just four of his 11 starts this year, while Santana has reached that mark in 14 of 16 outings.

With last night's loss, the Angels have now scored a total of six runs in their last five games. The LA offense has been hurt this season by a lack of power in the infield, particularly at second and third base. Angels third basemen have hit just a pair of homers, the least in the majors, while their second basemen have hit only one (which is more than one other team, as Cleveland's keystone contributors have yet to get on the board). The team's first basemen (eight homers) and shortstops (five) haven't shown much power either, and therefore LA has gotten fewer homers from its infielders (not including catchers) than any other team in baseball.

Besides first baseman Casey Kotchman, whose power stroke seems to have dried up this season—two homers in his past 59 games, after six in his first 20—the Angels home run leader amongst non-first base infielders is Maicer Izturis, with three (he has 16 career bombs), which underlines the seriousness of the problem. As long as Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick stay healthy enough to man third and second base, the Angels offense should be fine, but the team has shown that it has no suitable depth to survive if either (or both) again hit the shelf for any extended period. While Figgins was out for most of May and part of June, the replacement Halos at the hot corner were dreadful: despite Figgins' OBP of .398, Angels third basemen have collectively put up a line of .256/.326/.305, which adds up to the lowest OPS in the majors at the position. At second base, the Angels' overall line is a grisly .259/.323/.342, and that's with the benefit of Kendrick's decent performance in the limited time he has been healthy.

As I mentioned in yesterday's game recap, Kotchman's mojo seems to have been abraded by repeated exposure to Mickey Hatcher. It's hard to tell whether Howie Kendrick is 100%, but judging from his month-plus of lousy .238/.261/.314 production since returning from the DL on May 30, you have to wonder whether he's fully healed — and/or he's having a junior-year slump.

Labels: angels, athletics, previews

From the Swiftian pen of Derek Smart. Say hi to Captain Smith for me, er, Lou Piniella, yes?

Labels: cubs, dodgers, previews

Introduction

I haven't done midterms or previews for a couple of years now, but with the Dodgers and Angels about at the one-quarter mark in the season, it seems reasonable to talk about how each team is doing with their respective players, who those players are, and who they should be. Player values are measured by Baseball Prospectus's imperfect VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), which only covers offensive value for position players as of the start of the day at May 15.

Catcher

LAA: Mike Napoli, 89 PA, .253/.303/.570, .306 VORPr, 6.6 VORP
LAA: Jeff Mathis, 70 PA, .238/.269/.429, .021 VORPr, 0.4 VORP
LAD: Russell Martin, 161 PA, .302/.435/.419, .277 VORPr, 10.3 VORP

Both teams are very well-served at catcher, the Angels by a tandem of Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis, and the Dodgers by Russell Martin. Because Martin is a much better all-around hitter, the Dodgers are better off behind the dish offensively than the Angels; in point of fact, Mike Scioscia has sacrificed a bit of offense by playing Mathis more often than the differential in ability with the stick would seem to indicate. Napoli's tendency to a Mickey Tettleton sort of career (high strikeout, high walk, good number of homers, and low average) would normally give him the lion's share of the playing time, but Scioscia seems to prefer Jeff Mathis' game-calling and defense, the latter of which is noticeably better. Unlike the Dodgers' outfield, with catcher there is virtually no choice but for Joe Torre to start his young player. Even with a slight decline from his outstanding 2007 numbers, Martin still gives the Dodgers a substantial advantage at this position.

First Base

LAA: Casey Kotchman, 151 PA, .300/.351/.479, .258 VORPr, 9.4 VORP
LAD: James Loney, 164 PA, .284/.335/.453, .129 VORPr, 4.9 VORP

I don't really think this one's close: Kotchman is the better player, not by a little bit, and at all ends of the game. That's not to say that James Loney couldn't catch up — I really believe that both players are, at the end of the day, surprisingly similar and may end up having very similar careers. Both players look to be high-OBP, moderate-SLG first basemen who can give good defense at the position, and in Kotchman's case, Keith Hernandez levels. Kotch has hit for a bit more power this year so far and noticeably more average, though his May has been disappointing, hitting only .205/.222/.227. (That David Ortiz comp on Kotchman's B-Ref page really pops out at you.) Despite that, I'm giving the Angels the edge here. (After I started writing this, coincidentally Yahoo's Tim Brown put together a very nice comparison of the two players as well.)

Second Base

LAA: Howie Kendrick, 38 PA, .500/.526/.694, 1.047 VORPr, 9.6 VORP
LAD: Jeff Kent, 129 PA, .242/.287/.383, .019 VORPr, 0.6 VORP

In a sense, we'll see neither of these players in the upcoming series; Kendrick got shut down again after his hamstring barked at him during his most recent rehab appearance. Kent is the ghost of the player he used to be, something Jon recently remarked upon. In this series, the Dodgers will undoubtedly send Kent up to the plate in the four hole as per custom, though it's doubtful we'll see much of anything from him; stealing a link from Jon's piece, the chances of Kent being good are remote:

As Jeff Kent turns 40 he is about to enter an area that historically has not been kind to second basemen. Here is a list of second basemen sorted by age who ever did squat since integration. As you can see only HOF Joe Morgan was able to accomplish the feat (OPS+ above 100) at the age of 40 and most of that was accomplished by his OBP, and the OPS+ of 103 is hardly noteworthy.

Kendrick, on the other hand, was hitting way over his head before he landed on the DL, but it's this kind of line-drivery that we expected when, two years ago, PECOTA labeled him the most valuable second baseman in baseball without playing a day in the majors, even — and perhaps presciently — surpassing Jeff Kent. Kendrick is, this year, doing it with one leg tied behind his back.

With Kendrick on the DL, the Angels will send Maicer Izturis; that's still better than the daily dose of not-ready-for-prime-time Sean Rodriguez the Halos had for a week and a half. Kent has heated up lately while Izturis is still really getting his offense going, though both their defensive values are about the same these days. That may have as much to do with small sample sizes as anything for Maicer, who's historically been league average at second. I'll say that for the upcoming series, the Dodgers have the advantage at this position, but I say that recognizing that it could change overnight.

Third Base

LAA: Chone Figgins, 145 PA, .306/.421/.355, .244 VORPr, 8.6 VORP
LAD: Nomar Garciaparra, 35 PA, .226/.314/.323, -.034 VORPr, -0.3 VORP
LAD: Blake DeWitt, 116 PA, .320/.397/.495, .387 VORPr, 10.4 VORP

It may be that we don't see either of Figgins or DeWitt (certainly not Nomar) in this series; Figgins is currently on the DL with hamstring problems, and Blake DeWitt was last seen claiming his back tightness was merely a flesh wound, or something like that. Figgins has already proved himself as a sort of guided missile on the basepaths, while providing a decent glove at third. Lately he's taken great strides in improving his on base percentage; his current .421 is probably considerably higher than he'll end the season with, but it's no fluke.

DeWitt is still something of an enigma, going from an emergency fill-in at third at the start of the year to getting seriously discussed as the team's starting third baseman, hopscotching past Andy LaRoche in the depth chart. As much as I've been impressed by his at-bats — the kid damn well never seems to have a bad one, fouls off pitcher's pitches, stays within himself, and generally does all the things you want from a major league player — you wonder when the magic carpet ride is going to end. PECOTA expressed the opinion that he would have a fringy career, if that, which is to say, there was really very little in his minor league career to predict the kind of oversized success he's had to date with the big club. DeWitt hasn't had any experience over AA prior to his promotion to the Dodgers, and that's the kind of tell that can lead to a player having a sudden and painful regression. Luckily for Joe Torre, Andy LaRoche remains available in Las Vegas as an option should that happen.

Since it's likely neither player will show up during this series (Figgins for sure, since he hasn't even played a rehab game yet), it means the position will be manned by subs Robb Quinlan for the Angels and, possibly, Russell Martin at third. That's a win for the Dodgers, but even if both teams were healthy, I'd still give the edge to the real Los Angeles, provided you recognize that DeWitt is still covered in fairy dust.

Shortstop

LAA: Erick Aybar, 144 PA, .290/.308/.391, .146 VORPr, 5.1 VORP
LAD: Rafael Furcal, 154 PA, .366/.448/.597, .738 VORPr, 26.3 VORP
LAD: Chin-Lung Hu, 60 PA, .204/.283/.222, -.187 VORPr, -2.6 VORP

Of course, this is the Dodgers' call all the way, presuming you believe Rafael Furcal will rematerialize healthy starting 7:05 PM tonight, as Furcal is by far the better shortstop. Yet, with Furcal out for an indefinite time with an injured sacro-illiac, the question for the Dodgers has to be: extend him because your offense can't survive without him? Or improve elsewhere because he can't be relied on? Furcal had arthroscopic knee surgery in the same offseason he also reported an annular strain. According to Will Carroll, that strain is "the first sign of degenerative disc disease".

Erick Aybar is another of the slap-hitting, slick-glove middle infielders the Angels seem to buy by the pallet at Costco; he gets to a lot of balls, as his 113 Rate2 at short shows, but what he does once he gets to them is at times a mystery. His early season success with the bat is slowing appreciably (his May, in particular, is ice-cold, .226/.255/.396), leaving the question open of what happens in 2009 when presumably über-prospect Brandon Wood's game is another year polished. Chin-Lung Hu, the Dodgers' temporary and possibly Furcal's permanent future replacement at short, reminds me very much of Aybar in those aspects, save for the lack of a much-heralded prospect behind him. For the series, it's probably a draw, except that Hu seems to be a little less developed with the stick than Aybar.

Left Field

LAA: Garret Anderson, 161 PA, .266/.298/.435, .114 VORPr, 4.4 VORP
LAD: Juan Pierre, 113 PA, .293/.364/.343, .176 VORPr, 4.6 VORP

Both these players annoy me, the reasons for which have been well-laid-out elsewhere. On some reflection, I notice that Pierre is actually getting on base a little better than usual this year, which explains his surprisingly high VORPr. Anderson is in the last year of a four-year deal, probably his last in an Angels uniform. He's having a an excellent May (.380/.404/.640) to complement his miserable April. On the series, this is probably a draw with the caveat that both teams are likely to play mix-and-match with this position, the Angels starting Gary Matthews, Jr., and the Dodgers Andre Ethier.

Center Field

LAA: Torii Hunter, 163 PA, .298/.350/.490, .297 VORPr, 11.7 VORP
LAA: Gary Matthews, Jr., 176 PA, .217/.313/.349, -.036 VORPr, -1.5 VORP
LAD: Andruw Jones, 136 PA, .179/.287/.274, -.176 VORPr, -5.5 VORP

The most humiliating difference between the two clubs, these represent the most (Torii Hunter) and least (Andruw Jones) productive player on their team. Hunter has already hit a memorable walk-off grand slam against Cleveland, while prior to yesterday's victory against the Brewers, Jones' only home run came as a solo shot in a loss where that was the only offense the Dodgers mustered. Both contracts are, in my opinion, albatrosses in due time, but for now, Hunter's is making Tony Reagins look all geniusy 'n stuff. Advantage Angels.

Update: I clean forgot to add Gary Matthews, Jr. here. GMJ is just a hair under replacement level at this point, and his defense in center is about league average, too. He's just not getting it done with the bat, and to the extent Reggie Willits and his high-OBP bat spells Matthews, Jr. in the outfield, the better off the Angels will be.

Right Field

LAA: Vladimir Guerrero, 167 PA, .265/.335/.424, .108 VORPr, 4.4 VORP
LAD: Matt Kemp, 146 PA, .309/.338/.471, .247 VORPr, 8.3 VORP

Matt Kemp keeps getting irrationally slagged on by the media — the other day, during one of the Fox Saturday Dodger broadcasts, I was treated to Eric Karros pointing out with some glee every lowlight reel of Matt Kemp screwing up on the basepaths or elsewhere. I have never in my entire life seen such a concerted effort to denegrate a young player. This is the exact opposite of what seems to be happening with Vlad, i.e. the Wall of Silence from Angels broadcasters: Vlad's just taking a long time to get going. But the fact is that this represents the slowest start in his career, and you just wonder if he'll be able to put up the kind of numbers he did even last year. Baseball isn't kind to those over thirty, and Vlad's playing out his age 32 season now. Vlad may yet turn it around, of course, but the trend isn't good: his .308 May OBP represents a decline from an already weak April. Advantage Dodgers, and this one also isn't close; Kemp's accumulating value at more than twice the pace of Vlad.

Reserve Outfielders

LAA: Juan Rivera, 36 PA, .171/.194/.200, -.425 VORPr, -3.7 VORP
LAA: Reggie Willits, 20 PA, .313/.421/.375, .271 VORPr, 1.3 VORP
LAD: Andre Ethier, 136 PA, .301/.378/.451, .258 VORPr, 8.1 VORP

Ethier should really have the starting job in left, but stupid contracts have a way of blinding the GM and field manager. Joe Torre continues to pencil in Juan Pierre there, despite the fact that that move handcuffs the team to a slap-hitting, poor-defensive player at a traditional power position.

Similarly, there's an argument that the Angels should have moved one of Chone Figgins or Reggie Willits to center and dispensed with the extravagances of Gary Matthews, Jr. and Torii Hunter; but in the short run, at least, Hunter has proven to be vital insurance for a surprisingly rapid fall by Vlad. Rivera is a famously second-half player, but even by his low first-half standards, he's looked awful at the plate in very limited playing time. Willits has been his usual offensive self this year, but his inability to play infield positions makes him a likely candidate for a return trip to Salt Lake at any time. Advantage, Dodgers, provided Joe Torre deploys his resources properly. That he is not likely to is the reason Mike Scioscia kept beating the Yankees all those years.

Reserve Infielders

LAA: Maicer Izturis, 85 PA, .187/.271/.227, -.143 VORPr, -2.9 VORP
LAA: Robb Quinlan, 45 PA, .238/.289/.310, -.117 VORPr, -1.3 VORP
LAD: Delwyn Young, 28 PA, .292/.346/.333, .145 VORPr, 0.9 VORP
LAD: Mark Sweeney, 33 PA, .143/.273/.179, -.263 VORPr, -2 VORP

Delwyn Young is perhaps the best player of a weak lot here. Robb Quinlan has some positional versatility, but there's been signs this year and last that his time on the Angels is nearing an end, mostly an inability to mash lefties. (He's been inappropriately used to prevent Casey Kotchman from going up against tough southpaws, which is a mistake because Kotchman actually hits lefties better than righties.) Maicer Izturis is having a cold start compounded by another tough run with injuries. Mark Sweeney looks like this is going to be his last hurrah in the majors. I'll call this a wash since the sample sizes are so small for all these players.

Starting Pitching

LAA:

  Pitcher        ERA   W-L  IP     BB/9  K/9  VORP
==================================================
Jered Weaver    5.09   2-5  53.2  2.68  6.20   1.5
Jon Garland     4.30   4-3  52.1  2.75  2.06   2.6
Joe Saunders    2.48   6-1  54.3  2.32  3.98  17.2
Ervin Santana   2.63   6-0  54.2  1.65  7.41  15.6
Dustin Moseley  7.85   1-3  28.2  3.77 6.59  -5.9
John Lackey     1.29   0-0   7.0  1.65  7.41   3.2

Jered Weaver earned the opening day gig with an excellent spring, but he's looked hittable and vulnerable in most of his starts, though his most recent start against Chicago was an exception; he seems to have developed some problems with his fastball velocity that a delivery tweak has corrected, and he's back up to 92-93. Jon Garland is really the same pitcher he was for the Chicago White Sox, except that his already-low strikeout rate has plummeted, putting him in some rather dubious company. Joe Saunders keeps the ball in the park and on the ground, so his effectiveness is directly dependent on his sinker working — not unlike Derek Lowe that way, only minus the early career history of high strikeout rates. Ervin Santana finally awoke his inner ninja and is off to a tremendous start, having straightened out mechanical flaws and psychology on the road. Dustin Moseley is in Salt Lake with an inflamed ERA, and will likely stay there now that John Lackey is back and appears to be the fearsome stopper he was the prior two years.

LAD:

  Pitcher          ERA   W-L  IP    BB/9    K/9  VORP
=====================================================
Brad Penny        5.09   5-4  53.0  3.06   4.75   2.5
Derek Lowe        4.62   2-3  50.2  2.84   6.39  -0.2
Chad Billingsley  4.89   2-5  38.2  5.35  11.17   1.2
Hiroki Kuroda     3.59   1-2  47.2  2.64   4.91   6.9
Esteban Loaiza    5.63   1-2  24.0  1.88   3.38   0.4

Nothing has gone as planned this year for the Dodgers, as big declines in both opening day starter Brad Penny and Derek Lowe attest. Penny's command is all over the place, represented by a dramatically lowered strikeout rate and much higher walk rate, and Lowe's giving up line drives instead of getting ground ball outs (however, this seems to be recovering, as his G/F ratio is currently 2.19, better than his previous numbers at about 1.5). Chad Billingsley's strikeout rate is for real if perhaps a bit high (he's never had double-digit strikeout rates at any level higher than single-A); so are the walks. Hiroki Kuroda has been most of what the Dodgers wanted, and by ERA he's the staff ace, though with that Washburnian 4.91 K/9, you can expect his numbers will deteriorate as the season progresses. Esteban Loiaza is on the DL with shoulder problems (another case of the inflamed ERA disease), and so Chan Ho Park will get his start against the Angels. Park has been a surprisingly good pickup for the Dodgers thus far in the bullpen; perhaps familiarity breeds success in this case, but I wouldn't bet on it over the long term.

The pitching probables do favor the Angels in this series, however: Kuroda vs. Saunders, Park vs. Santana (which looks especially like a mismatch), and Penny vs. Weaver. This is a strong advantage to the Angels with the caveat that there is a lot of variability here, on both sides.

Bullpen

Let's just get this over with without even bothering to look at too many numbers: the Dodgers have the third best bullpen in the majors, while the Angels have the second worst. This just isn't close, and the Angels are at a real disadvantage when starters leave the game tied or with a slim lead — as last night, when Frankie Rodriguez gave up an RBI single to Jim Thome for the loss. Advantage, Dodgers.

Conclusion

The Dodgers should be able to take this series, but for one problem: Joe Torre, who will field players based on their contracts and not on their ability to win. The Angels have the same problems, but for now, Scioscia is a little more flexible. It'll be an interesting series.

Update: Thanks for the links back from Jon, Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness, Blue Notes, and of course Halos Heaven.

Labels: angels, dodgers, previews

It was supposed to be a preview, but I got it in late, and now my Q & A session with Jeff Sackmann is a mid-view of the Dodgers going into the Brewers series.

Labels: brewers, dodgers, previews

Joe Sheehan previews the Dodgers' spring training:

Where: Vero Beach, Florida (Grapefruit League)
2007 record: 82-80 (4th, NL West)
New guys: Gary Bennett, Andruw Jones, Hiroki Kuroda
Gone guys: Luis Gonzalez, Mike Lieberthal, Mark Hendrickson, Ramon Martinez (NRI), Olmedo Saenz, David Wells, Randy Wolf
Wow, he’s still here? Esteban Loaiza was lousy (8.34 ERA in five starts) after being acquired at the waiver-trade deadline in August. However, his contract runs another year, so he’ll be at the back end of the rotation.
Winter grade: B
The Jones signing was an excellent case of buying low, and Kuroda’s contract is a good gamble given the price of MLB free agent starting pitchers. Better still, the Dodgers avoided making another bad trade, retaining all of their young talent.
NRI to watch: Not that the Dodgers need another outfielder, but John-Ford Griffin is in camp. The one-time first-round pick is now a 28-year-old with no upside. However, and take this with a grain of salt, he has a career line of .304/.370/.696 in 27 plate appearances. Aren’t you just a little curious?
Job battle to track: There are four outfielders for three spots, and it’s excruciatingly clear to anyone familiar with baseball who ranks fourth among them. However, the likelihood that the Dodgers relegate Juan Pierre to a bench role is nil. Every PA he takes from Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier is a mistake.
One move to make: Trading Pierre for whatever he’ll bring back, even if it means eating $10-15 million. Pierre would actually be a decent extra outfielder; it’s just not likely that the Dodgers would do that, or that he would be all that happy in the role. Having Pierre around just increases the chance that he’ll take time away from better players. There are people who don’t like it when we say players aren’t good, and saying this about a known nice guy like Pierre tends to fire up the opponents of performance analysis. Playing him regularly on a corner is just baseball malpractice, however, and the Dodgers have to avoid that temptation.

Ned Colletti has squandered a fair amount of Logan White’s work in his time as the Dodgers’ GM, but he avoided doing so this winter. Thanks to that, he heads into the spring with his best team, and with the best chance of having that team play. There remains the need to push Pierre and Nomar Garciaparra into supporting roles, the latter so that OBP machine Andy LaRoche can take over at third base. The “right” Dodger lineup can win 94 games and the division. How Joe Torre apportions playing time in a situation not dissimilar to the 1996 Yankees will determine whether the Dodgers fulfill their potential.

Labels: dodgers, previews

Since Jon's September 16 entreaty to get to 81 wins, the Dodgers have gone exactly 1-10. Clearly they're not listening, but there's more than just that at this point:

• If the season ended today, the Dodgers would draft fifteenth overall in 2008.
• LA has a winning record so far at 80-79, but there is still the open possibility that the Giants could sweep the upcoming homestand and give the Dodgers a losing season. If that happens, the Dodgers could sign a type-A free agent without having to surrender a first round draft pick.
• The Dodgers have been mathematically eliminated from finishing third; similarly, the Giants cannot finish fourth, so there is that small consolation.

The Giants may be bad, but they've won more games in their last ten (four) than the Dodgers (one). This could be interesting.

Tonight's game: Kevin Correia (4-6, 3.20 ERA) against David Wells (8-9, 5.53 ERA).

Labels: dodgers, previews

From Todd Helton, on the Rockies' sudden emergence as a playoff contender:

If we were any more relaxed, we'd need diapers and a bib, if that makes any sense.

The Rocks start a three-game road series against the Dodgers tonight, with Ubaldo Jimenez (4-4, 4.14 ERA) squaring off against Brad Penny (16-4, 2.93 ERA). You might not know it, but with their 84th win on Sunday (a 7-3 win over the Pads, marking a sweep of the three-game set), it marks the Rockies' best season in their history. The Dodgers could play spoiler (the Rocks will face Derek Lowe tomorrow night, with Thursday's pitcher TBA), or they could grease the skids for a hot Colorado team that might just be postseason bound.

Bad Altitude is nervous:

Here's the truth: I don't want to write anything about a certain baseball team because I've never before been in a position where I honestly believed in them and I'm half-convinced that it's my own repeated season obituaries that have made the team suddenly so good.

I'm watching the games. I can't think of anything to say other than that I wish more people were. Desperate last-minute regular-season runs are as much if not more fun than playoff campaigns and Denver baseball fans don't know that yet.

Apparently the Rocks have already printed up postseason tickets and mailed them to fans. Wow. I haven't gotten ours from the Angels yet.

Labels: dodgers, previews, rockies

Much to my surprise the Angels are 10-point favorites over the Red Sox. It seemed to me that Weaver had been giving up a lot of longballs lately, but in fact he's about on pace for what he did last year. The big difference is that his WHIP is up by over .40 vs. last year. Schilling is coming back from a rehab assignment, and might be shaky; we'll see. David Ortiz isn't as scary this year as in seasons past, for the simple reason that his home run power has abated; he's only hit 19 so far this year, and while that would lead the Angels, it means that between him and Manny Ramirez (tied for the Red Sox home run lead with 19), Boston's offense isn't quite the threat it used to be. In fact, they're only 20 runs ahead of the Angels as a team right now, with 574 runs scored, good for third place. The Angels and Boston are virtually tied for rotation ERA, but the Red Sox have a huge edge in the bullpen with a 2.79 ERA that's two-thirds of a run better than second place Minnesota. (The Angels are a pretty miserable 10th by that standard, with a 4.14 ERA.) It should be an interesting series, anyway.

Labels: angels, previews, red sox